大老师Bugsbunny
BNB Holder
Occasional Trader
8 Years
机构级视角 不说废话 只说干货的 博主
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See original
Trump's tariffs may soon be ruled on (current approval rate only 29%)
Tonight at 11 PM, the U.S. Supreme Court will announce its ruling on Trump's tariffs
Currently, there is only a 29% chance of supporting Trump's tariff case
This ruling will amplify multiple risks
And inevitably point to higher volatility expectations
——————
My personal judgment is that the ruling will be delayed
If approved, the government will refund $150 billion to importers and businesses
This expenditure will come from the Treasury account
This will inevitably cause liquidity strain
Tonight at 11 PM, the U.S. Supreme Court will announce its ruling on Trump's tariffs
Currently, there is only a 29% chance of supporting Trump's tariff case
This ruling will amplify multiple risks
And inevitably point to higher volatility expectations
——————
My personal judgment is that the ruling will be delayed
If approved, the government will refund $150 billion to importers and businesses
This expenditure will come from the Treasury account
This will inevitably cause liquidity strain
See original
Market利好
Keywords: The White House demands credit card institutions reduce interest rates from 20-30% to 10%
De facto QE
Equivalent to direct liquidity injection
Keywords: The White House demands credit card institutions reduce interest rates from 20-30% to 10%
De facto QE
Equivalent to direct liquidity injection
See original
The best opportunity to buy gold and silver this year has arrived.
——————————————
Yesterday, the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was completed.
What is BCOM? It is one of the most important global commodity investment benchmarks, essentially a "commodity investment basket" that includes assets such as gold, silver, crude oil, and agricultural products. Currently, over $10 billion in global funds follow the allocation ratios of this index.
Therefore, this year's BCOM weight adjustment has become the most significant factor affecting precious metals. The weight changes this year have created substantial pressure on gold and silver holdings.
According to Bloomberg's published plan, gold's weight in the index has dropped sharply from 20.4% to 14.9%, while silver's weight has been cut in half—from 9.6% to 3.94%.
——————————————
What does this mean?
Passive funds tracking BCOM must sell large amounts of their gold and silver holdings during the adjustment window from January 8 to 14, in order to bring their positions down to the new target weights.
——————————————
How significant is this selling pressure? According to Deutsche Bank estimates, approximately 6,800 tons of gold will be sold within five days, potentially causing gold prices to drop by 2.5% to 3%. The selling pressure on silver is also substantial—$7.7 billion in silver selling pressure will appear in the market in the near term, equivalent to 13% of the current COMEX silver open interest.
However, the clear conclusion is that this adjustment is almost certainly technical in nature, not a shift in pricing trends. Investors can still focus on allocating to precious metals like gold and silver during this correction. Moreover, this correction risk has been largely priced in, including the December adjustment of margin requirements for precious metal positions.
——————————————
The fundamental drivers supporting gold's long-term trend remain completely unchanged.
Global geopolitical uncertainties, sustained central bank demand for gold, and the start of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle all provide strong underlying support for gold.
——————————————
This correction is almost certainly the best time to buy gold. This is the final conclusion.
You can trade related precious metal tokens on Binance, such as paxg and xaut.
$PAXG
——————————————
Yesterday, the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was completed.
What is BCOM? It is one of the most important global commodity investment benchmarks, essentially a "commodity investment basket" that includes assets such as gold, silver, crude oil, and agricultural products. Currently, over $10 billion in global funds follow the allocation ratios of this index.
Therefore, this year's BCOM weight adjustment has become the most significant factor affecting precious metals. The weight changes this year have created substantial pressure on gold and silver holdings.
According to Bloomberg's published plan, gold's weight in the index has dropped sharply from 20.4% to 14.9%, while silver's weight has been cut in half—from 9.6% to 3.94%.
——————————————
What does this mean?
Passive funds tracking BCOM must sell large amounts of their gold and silver holdings during the adjustment window from January 8 to 14, in order to bring their positions down to the new target weights.
——————————————
How significant is this selling pressure? According to Deutsche Bank estimates, approximately 6,800 tons of gold will be sold within five days, potentially causing gold prices to drop by 2.5% to 3%. The selling pressure on silver is also substantial—$7.7 billion in silver selling pressure will appear in the market in the near term, equivalent to 13% of the current COMEX silver open interest.
However, the clear conclusion is that this adjustment is almost certainly technical in nature, not a shift in pricing trends. Investors can still focus on allocating to precious metals like gold and silver during this correction. Moreover, this correction risk has been largely priced in, including the December adjustment of margin requirements for precious metal positions.
——————————————
The fundamental drivers supporting gold's long-term trend remain completely unchanged.
Global geopolitical uncertainties, sustained central bank demand for gold, and the start of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle all provide strong underlying support for gold.
——————————————
This correction is almost certainly the best time to buy gold. This is the final conclusion.
You can trade related precious metal tokens on Binance, such as paxg and xaut.
$PAXG
See original
Recent attention can be paid to cex net inflows and usdt related information
Used to observe signs of liquidity overflow
US stocks → commodities → crypto?
Gold is not within the scope of consideration
Used to observe signs of liquidity overflow
US stocks → commodities → crypto?
Gold is not within the scope of consideration
See original
In fact, every tightening is an opportunity
Because the space for project parties to commit evil has narrowed
This is the opportunity for the new Alpha currency
GUA RAVE and so on are just a beginning
Because the space for project parties to commit evil has narrowed
This is the opportunity for the new Alpha currency
GUA RAVE and so on are just a beginning
See original
The complete version is also shared, thanks to Wei Tuo for sharing ❤️
——
Currently, there is a lack of performance from the opposing positions.
Good news brings opposing positions, and the market will liquidate the opposing positions.
Because the market lacks sustained capital to drive cryptocurrency prices.
Therefore, the crypto market is extremely sensitive.
——
Assuming there are a large number of quantitative/market makers participating in the market now, but the prices are stable.
When good news appears,
First, event-driven institutions will chase longs.
Retail investors will lag behind the event-driven institutions and also chase longs.
However, the capital from good news is not continuous; event-driven institutions will quickly close positions, leading to market selling pressure. Retail investors act in a pulsed manner, not continuously.
This cannot bring in pricing-level capital inflow.
Therefore, short-term good news drives price volatility while also disrupting the original game relationship.
"Rebalancing" will bring about a reverse change in the market.
Thus, the more short-term good news there is, the easier it is to create a wedge.
With Christmas approaching, the entire market is heavily defensive, and capital is very conservative.
——
When will the breakthrough happen?
A change in pricing levels or a real improvement in liquidity.
Here, we need to differentiate adjustments in liquidity management tools.
I believe everyone should still learn options to study arbitrage from a higher-level perspective.
Otherwise, I really suggest doing less watching and acting.
RV might be very important.
The speed of RV suppression actually reflects the current scale of institutions in the market.
As for directional judgment, I believe it is already lagging.
Of course, shorting is also more favorable.
Because retail investors see good news, they tend to go long.
When they see bad news, they do not tend to short/sell but will hold on.
These two are clearly unbalanced.
——
Currently, there is a lack of performance from the opposing positions.
Good news brings opposing positions, and the market will liquidate the opposing positions.
Because the market lacks sustained capital to drive cryptocurrency prices.
Therefore, the crypto market is extremely sensitive.
——
Assuming there are a large number of quantitative/market makers participating in the market now, but the prices are stable.
When good news appears,
First, event-driven institutions will chase longs.
Retail investors will lag behind the event-driven institutions and also chase longs.
However, the capital from good news is not continuous; event-driven institutions will quickly close positions, leading to market selling pressure. Retail investors act in a pulsed manner, not continuously.
This cannot bring in pricing-level capital inflow.
Therefore, short-term good news drives price volatility while also disrupting the original game relationship.
"Rebalancing" will bring about a reverse change in the market.
Thus, the more short-term good news there is, the easier it is to create a wedge.
With Christmas approaching, the entire market is heavily defensive, and capital is very conservative.
——
When will the breakthrough happen?
A change in pricing levels or a real improvement in liquidity.
Here, we need to differentiate adjustments in liquidity management tools.
I believe everyone should still learn options to study arbitrage from a higher-level perspective.
Otherwise, I really suggest doing less watching and acting.
RV might be very important.
The speed of RV suppression actually reflects the current scale of institutions in the market.
As for directional judgment, I believe it is already lagging.
Of course, shorting is also more favorable.
Because retail investors see good news, they tend to go long.
When they see bad news, they do not tend to short/sell but will hold on.
These two are clearly unbalanced.
Why does $BTC frequently draw a door? I think the point made by @大老师Bugsbunny is very good.
The cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to liquidity; it is an index of the global liquidity of the market itself. The price movements in this market are determined by the direction and amount of the opposing positions.
When good news arises in the market, institutions will first chase the long positions, and the delayed retail investors will also chase the long positions. However, if liquidity does not improve and the good news cannot be sustained, the original game relationship needs to be rebalanced.
The bulls become the opposing positions, and thus it turns into drawing a door.
The cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to liquidity; it is an index of the global liquidity of the market itself. The price movements in this market are determined by the direction and amount of the opposing positions.
When good news arises in the market, institutions will first chase the long positions, and the delayed retail investors will also chase the long positions. However, if liquidity does not improve and the good news cannot be sustained, the original game relationship needs to be rebalanced.
The bulls become the opposing positions, and thus it turns into drawing a door.
See original
Right now, there is a lack of performance on the opposite side.
Positive news brings the opposite side, and the market will clear the opposite side.
Because the market lacks sustained capital to drive the coin price.
Thus, the crypto market is extremely sensitive.
——
Assuming there are a large number of quant/traders participating in the market right now, but the coin price remains stable.
When positive news appears,
First, event-driven institutions will chase long positions.
Retail investors will also lag behind the event-driven institutions and similarly chase long positions.
However, the positive capital is not continuous; event-driven institutions will quickly close their positions, leading to market sell pressure. Retail investors are impulsive, not continuous.
This does not bring in pricing-level capital.
Thus, short-term positive news drives price fluctuations while also disrupting the original gaming relationship.
"Rebalancing" will bring about a reverse change in the market.
Therefore, the more short-term positive news there is, the easier it is to create fluctuations.
With Christmas approaching, the entire market's defense is significant, and capital is very conservative.
——
When will the breakthrough happen?
Change in pricing levels or real improvement in liquidity.
Here, it is important to distinguish the adjustments in liquidity management tools.
I believe everyone should still learn about options to study arbitrage from a higher perspective.
Otherwise, I really recommend watching less and acting less.
rv could be very important.
The speed of rv suppression actually reflects the current scale of institutions in the market.
As for directional judgment, I believe it is already lagging behind.
Of course, shorting is also more advantageous.
Because retail investors see positive news and tend to go long.
When they see negative news, they do not tend to short/sell, but rather hold on.
These two are obviously unbalanced.
Positive news brings the opposite side, and the market will clear the opposite side.
Because the market lacks sustained capital to drive the coin price.
Thus, the crypto market is extremely sensitive.
——
Assuming there are a large number of quant/traders participating in the market right now, but the coin price remains stable.
When positive news appears,
First, event-driven institutions will chase long positions.
Retail investors will also lag behind the event-driven institutions and similarly chase long positions.
However, the positive capital is not continuous; event-driven institutions will quickly close their positions, leading to market sell pressure. Retail investors are impulsive, not continuous.
This does not bring in pricing-level capital.
Thus, short-term positive news drives price fluctuations while also disrupting the original gaming relationship.
"Rebalancing" will bring about a reverse change in the market.
Therefore, the more short-term positive news there is, the easier it is to create fluctuations.
With Christmas approaching, the entire market's defense is significant, and capital is very conservative.
——
When will the breakthrough happen?
Change in pricing levels or real improvement in liquidity.
Here, it is important to distinguish the adjustments in liquidity management tools.
I believe everyone should still learn about options to study arbitrage from a higher perspective.
Otherwise, I really recommend watching less and acting less.
rv could be very important.
The speed of rv suppression actually reflects the current scale of institutions in the market.
As for directional judgment, I believe it is already lagging behind.
Of course, shorting is also more advantageous.
Because retail investors see positive news and tend to go long.
When they see negative news, they do not tend to short/sell, but rather hold on.
These two are obviously unbalanced.
See original
Paypal's entry into risk-free yield, the capital-strapped crypto circle will restart
Payment giant Paypal enters the arena, potentially reshaping the crypto landscape and DeFi fundamentally (no ads, enjoy safely @PayPal)
This article is a preamble, let's leave a pit here to fill later
——————
Paypal will offer compliant users a risk-free annual yield of 4% (with some variations in yield), among yield-bearing stablecoins, pyusd currently has a TVL second only to ethena (ethena's is 6.455B, pyusd is 3.854B)
A risk-free annual yield is an extremely exaggerated thing, which will turn U on Paypal into a revolutionary asset and is a core logic leading valuation pricing
Transaction fee 0.99% is far lower than other credit cards (traditional international credit cards 1.5%-3.5% + currency conversion fee)
This article is a preamble, let's leave a pit here to fill later
——————
Paypal will offer compliant users a risk-free annual yield of 4% (with some variations in yield), among yield-bearing stablecoins, pyusd currently has a TVL second only to ethena (ethena's is 6.455B, pyusd is 3.854B)
A risk-free annual yield is an extremely exaggerated thing, which will turn U on Paypal into a revolutionary asset and is a core logic leading valuation pricing
Transaction fee 0.99% is far lower than other credit cards (traditional international credit cards 1.5%-3.5% + currency conversion fee)
See original
The reason for the current interest rate cut, but the market is still weak is
1. This interest rate cut is fine, the dot plot shows only one rate cut next year, which is less than the market's expectation of three rate cuts next year.
2. The magnitude of the next interest rate cut has decreased to 55%.
3. Powell has raised the threshold for rate cuts to ensure the independence of the Federal Reserve.
The third point is very crucial. The last time the threshold for rate cuts was raised was in December 2024, after which the Federal Reserve paused rate cuts and did not resume until nine months later, so the market is somewhat concerned.
#美联储降息
1. This interest rate cut is fine, the dot plot shows only one rate cut next year, which is less than the market's expectation of three rate cuts next year.
2. The magnitude of the next interest rate cut has decreased to 55%.
3. Powell has raised the threshold for rate cuts to ensure the independence of the Federal Reserve.
The third point is very crucial. The last time the threshold for rate cuts was raised was in December 2024, after which the Federal Reserve paused rate cuts and did not resume until nine months later, so the market is somewhat concerned.
#美联储降息
See original
The updated GSR should be a major strategic adjustment. It is almost impossible for passive MM to face liquidation.
Currently, the core reason for MM adjustments still lies within the projects themselves.
Some cryptocurrency projects no longer have buying interest, and the project teams are also unwilling to invest funds to maintain liquidity.
Notable projects like ASP are among them.
When encountering such drastic changes in the industry, GSR will naturally make strategic adjustments.
Currently, the core reason for MM adjustments still lies within the projects themselves.
Some cryptocurrency projects no longer have buying interest, and the project teams are also unwilling to invest funds to maintain liquidity.
Notable projects like ASP are among them.
When encountering such drastic changes in the industry, GSR will naturally make strategic adjustments.
Pay attention to market maker risks
There have been some issues with liquidity maintenance related to GSR market-making tokens
Consider the above as rumors
There have been some issues with liquidity maintenance related to GSR market-making tokens
Consider the above as rumors
See original
It should still be due to the project party not having money.
Top-tier market makers have collapsed, it's been two months,
why is there still no conclusion?
On one hand, market makers are still continuously selling off to recover losses and engaging in self-rescue; every day they can delay is a victory;
On the other hand, there are still negotiations outside with the exchange: how to fill the gaps, how to compensate, all are bargaining chips on the negotiation table.
Life is hanging by a thread, publicly admitting it is equivalent to suicide.
Buying time for space,
so don't ask, the answer is denial.
why is there still no conclusion?
On one hand, market makers are still continuously selling off to recover losses and engaging in self-rescue; every day they can delay is a victory;
On the other hand, there are still negotiations outside with the exchange: how to fill the gaps, how to compensate, all are bargaining chips on the negotiation table.
Life is hanging by a thread, publicly admitting it is equivalent to suicide.
Buying time for space,
so don't ask, the answer is denial.
See original
GSR did not market make according to the order requirements
It may be due to a lack of funds or a large strategic adjustment
Pay attention to the risks of altcoins
Only for altcoins
It may be due to a lack of funds or a large strategic adjustment
Pay attention to the risks of altcoins
Only for altcoins
See original
Pay attention to market maker risks
There have been some issues with liquidity maintenance related to GSR market-making tokens
Consider the above as rumors
There have been some issues with liquidity maintenance related to GSR market-making tokens
Consider the above as rumors
See original
Understood.
In 26 years, expanding the money supply and the issuance of 26 billion in bonds is just the beginning. After the Federal Reserve's transition, printing money will happen more naturally.
Up Only
So what is the most important thing to maintain financial stability?
It's the AI bubble, and now we need to find more reservoirs.
Robots? Crypto? Brain-machine science? SpaceX?
In 26 years, expanding the money supply and the issuance of 26 billion in bonds is just the beginning. After the Federal Reserve's transition, printing money will happen more naturally.
Up Only
So what is the most important thing to maintain financial stability?
It's the AI bubble, and now we need to find more reservoirs.
Robots? Crypto? Brain-machine science? SpaceX?
See original
Does this content need to be explained in more detail?
Recently, the FOMC has led the market to adopt a defensive stance, with high-risk stocks such as small-cap stocks being sold off, mainly to manage expectations for the FOMC meeting, and the VIX is also rising.
Trading suggestion: After the FOMC meeting, hedged positions will decrease, thereby raising the prices of various underlying assets.
(Unless the FOMC meeting shatters the expectations for interest rate cuts at the end of December.
Trading suggestion: After the FOMC meeting, hedged positions will decrease, thereby raising the prices of various underlying assets.
(Unless the FOMC meeting shatters the expectations for interest rate cuts at the end of December.
See original
Recently, the FOMC has led the market to adopt a defensive stance, with high-risk stocks such as small-cap stocks being sold off, mainly to manage expectations for the FOMC meeting, and the VIX is also rising.
Trading suggestion: After the FOMC meeting, hedged positions will decrease, thereby raising the prices of various underlying assets.
(Unless the FOMC meeting shatters the expectations for interest rate cuts at the end of December.
Trading suggestion: After the FOMC meeting, hedged positions will decrease, thereby raising the prices of various underlying assets.
(Unless the FOMC meeting shatters the expectations for interest rate cuts at the end of December.
See original
China and the US reach a consensus on the export of h200
Beneficial for the AI industry
Beneficial for the AI industry
See original
The current overall market resilience and upward driving force is actually what this tweet demonstrates.
The Federal Reserve bought $26 billion in bonds
$13.5 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds
$12.5 billion in MBS mortgage-backed securities
Equivalent to printing money
$13.5 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds
$12.5 billion in MBS mortgage-backed securities
Equivalent to printing money
See original
It's getting better, I can be tagged by tintin.
Chinese Binance Square Masters Gathering!
@Nuts坚果 Very handsome Teacher Nut, his content output is very serious~
@大老师Bugsbunny Smart Teacher Da has always been one of my favorite traders!
@币毒 The number one male model in the Chinese cryptocurrency circle, no need to say more
@林克Clean Forever Teacher Link 💛🫶
I am honored to take a photo with all the teachers 🥺
@Nuts坚果 Very handsome Teacher Nut, his content output is very serious~
@大老师Bugsbunny Smart Teacher Da has always been one of my favorite traders!
@币毒 The number one male model in the Chinese cryptocurrency circle, no need to say more
@林克Clean Forever Teacher Link 💛🫶
I am honored to take a photo with all the teachers 🥺
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