Cointelegraph

Global investment management firm VanEck is confident that the first three months of the year will be a risk-on environment for investors, citing clarity around fiscal policy, monetary direction, and major investment themes. 

“As we move into 2026, markets are operating in an environment with something investors have not had in years: visibility,” stated VanEck in a Q1 2026 Outlook on Tuesday. 

However, regarding Bitcoin (BTC), it stated that the typical four-year cycle “broke in 2025, complicating short-term signals.”

“This divergence supports a more cautious near-term outlook over the next 3–6 months,” it stated, noting that this outlook was not unanimous, with some company executives “remaining more constructive on the immediate cycle.”

A risk-on outlook is generally good news for riskier investments such as AI and tech stocks, and crypto. However, Bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets in recent months following the massive deleveraging event in October.

Fewer fiscal and monetary surprises ahead

“One of the most important developments for markets is the gradual improvement in the US fiscal picture,” VanEck stated. 

“While deficits remain elevated, they are shrinking as a percentage of GDP from the historic highs reached during the COVID period,” they continued to explain.  

“This fiscal stabilization is helping anchor longer-term interest rates and reduce tail risks.”

Related: What the Fed’s divided 2026 outlook means for Bitcoin and crypto

The VanEck outlook is more medium-term than focused on immediate events, Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph.

“One can’t help but look at price action, which often is its own narrative as confirmation,” he said, adding:

“With BTC rising in a low-leverage environment, it feels like a lot of last year’s fluff was taken out, leaving bulls a tad more realistic, and bears tamed in their apocalyptic prophecies. We see a lot of indicators in deep oversold territory, edging to get back up.” 

“While conflict with the US administration and the Fed might not help things, geopolitical uncertainty and a broadly bullish sentiment on risk assets seem to bode well for crypto, as it plays catch-up,” he added. 

Market trajectory for H1 2026 is relatively clear

Meanwhile, HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that following the fluctuations and adjustments in late 2025, the market trajectory for the first half of 2026 has become relatively clear.

“With the US midterm elections approaching, both fiscal and financial conditions are expected to further favor risk assets,” he said. 

“Fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary conditions, and favorable regulatory developments collectively form a classic risk‑on macroeconomic window in the first half of 2026. In such an environment, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market stand to benefit.”

Crypto investor Will Clemente commented that “this environment is literally what Bitcoin was created for.” 

“The President is coming after the Fed chair. Metals are ripping as sovereigns diversify reserves. Stocks and risk assets are at record highs. Geopolitical risk is rising.”

Analyst tips Bitcoin to go back to six figures

MN Fund founder and crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe is confident that BTC prices will reclaim six figures before the end of January. 

There has been no dip below the 21-day moving average with “buyers stepping in to accumulate Bitcoin at these regions,” he said on Monday. 

“Given the fact that the markets have hung in this range for such a long time, it shows the significance of the potential breakout levels,” he stated before predicting that a clear move above $92,000 will result in $100,000 in a maximum of ten days. 

BTC had tapped the $92,000 level at the time of writing early Tuesday morning in Asia after a dip to the low $90,000 area on Monday. 

BTC has been trading sideways for almost two months. Source: TradingView

Magazine: One metric shows crypto is now in a bear market: Carl ‘The Moon’

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan has slammed the idea that Bitcoin shouldn’t be used for investment and 401(k)s because of its volatility — arguing that some stocks are also prone to even larger price swings.

Hougan made the comments on the same day US Senator Elizabeth Warren pressed the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for answers on how it would mitigate risks involved in allowing crypto in retirement funds. 

In August last year, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the Labor Department to reevaluate restrictions around alternative assets in defined-contribution plans, opening the door for cryptocurrencies to be included in 401(k) retirement plans.

During an interview with Investopedia Express Live on Monday, Hougan called previous attempts to block Bitcoin (BTC) investment by management companies like Vanguard and regulators' advice against inclusion in 401(k)s “ridiculous.”

“This is just another asset. Does it go up and down? Absolutely. Is there risk in it? Absolutely. But it's actually less volatile over the last year than Nvidia stock, and you don't see any rules about banning 401(k) providers from offering Nvidia stock,” he said.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan says Bitcoin can be less volatile than some stocks, and bans on investing in it are ridiculous. Source: YouTube 

Shares in US tech giant Nvidia hit a yearly low of roughly $94.31 in April 2025, before spiking to a high of over $207 by October, representing a price swing of 120%. 

On the other hand, Bitcoin fluctuated between a low of $76,000 in April and a high of $126,080 in October, amounting to a 65% swing between the two.

Crypto in 401(k)s has been a long-sought-after opportunity for crypto firms aiming to reach more retail investors and achieve greater financial system legitimacy.

Warren demands SEC answers on crypto in 401(k)

Meanwhile, US Senator Elizabeth Warren is demanding answers from the SEC about how it will mitigate any risks for 401(k) plans that choose to invest in “alternative investments,” like crypto.

In an open letter published on Monday, Warren argued that crypto in retirement plans might not lead to better outcomes for participants due to higher fees and expenses “that typically come with them,” along with crypto’s volatility.

“For most Americans, their 401(k) represents a lifeline to retirement security rather than a playground for financial risk. Allowing crypto into American retirement accounts creates fertile ground for workers and families to lose big,” she added.

Warren has demanded that SEC Chair Paul Atkins answer whether the regulator is taking into account volatility when valuing crypto holdings for publicly traded companies no later than Jan. 27.

She also wants to know if the SEC has assessed the use of manipulative practices in crypto markets and if the regulator will publish research and other educational materials to help raise investor awareness.

Crypto in 401(k)s will be normalized, eventually

Outside of Trump's executive order, in May, the Department of Labor’s Employee Benefits Security Administration announced a “neutral stance, neither endorsing nor disapproving,” of crypto in 401(k)s after rescinding a compliance release from 2022 that had previously discouraged the practice.

Related: Crypto in US 401(k) retirement plans may drive Bitcoin to $200K in 2025

Hougan said it’s unclear if 401(k) providers will start to invest in crypto during 2026, but predicts it will eventually happen and become normalized.

“These are very slow-moving institutions, but we're moving in that direction, and eventually it'll be normalized like other assets, which is how it should be,” he added.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

A Tennessee federal judge has temporarily stopped state regulators from taking action against the prediction markets platform Kalshi, which had sued the state after being ordered to cease offering sports event contracts.

In an order on Monday, Judge Aleta Trauger supported Kalshi’s earlier motion for a preliminary injunction and temporary restraining order against the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council and the state’s attorney general while the court case moves ahead.

The judge said Kalshi “will suffer irreparable injury and loss” by the regulator’s actions, and the company “is likely to succeed on the merits of its claims and its rights will likely be violated” unless the regulator is restrained.

The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council sent Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com cease-and-desist letters on Friday, ordering them to stop offering sports event contracts in the state.

Source: Daniel Wallach

The regulator accused all three of offering sports wagering products without a license. It ordered them to stop offering the products in Tennessee, void all contracts, and refund all users in the state by Jan. 31, threatening fines of up to $25,000 per offense.

Kalshi sues Tennessee, arguing it overstepped

Shortly after receiving the letter, Kalshi sued the Sports Wagering Council; its chair, William Orgen; and its executive director, Mary Beth Thomas, along with state attorney general Jonathan Skrmetti.

The company argued that, as a federally designated derivatives exchange, it is subject to the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“Tennessee’s intent to regulate Kalshi intrudes upon the federal regulatory framework that Congress established for regulating derivatives on designated exchanges,” Kalshi said.

Kalshi has made similar arguments in lawsuits it has launched against other state regulators, which had also issued the company and some of its rivals with cease-and-desist letters, arguing that prediction market platforms must be licensed at the state level.

Courts in Nevada and New Jersey have sided with Kalshi to block state regulators from taking action while the company’s lawsuits play out, but a judge in Maryland denied Kalshi’s request for a temporary block.

Tennessee’s action against Kalshi is frozen until a preliminary injunction hearing slated for Jan. 26, and the platform is free to continue operating in the state.

Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops

US Securities and Exchange Commission chair Paul Atkins says he is confident that the crypto market structure bill will make it onto US President Donald Trump’s desk this year. 

In an interview with Fox Business on Monday, Atkins discussed the regulatory outlook for crypto this year. Atkins praised the passing of the GENIUS act in 2025, noting that the bill provides an important part of regulatory clarity in the US.

Moving forward, he highlighted the bipartisan crypto market structure bill as the next key boost to the domestic crypto sector. 

“This [bill] fits in with the President’s focus on making America the crypto capital of the world, so if you have clear legislation and clear rules, then you have certainty in the marketplace,” he said, adding:

“We’re behind it, we’re very bullish on the effects of the bill getting to the president to be signed this year and I think that will really be a huge help to the crypto marketplace.”

Source: Paul Atkins

On Monday, the US Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, pushed back the final markup of the bill to the end of January, stating that it needs more time to finalize details and garner support for the legislation.

The Senate Agriculture Committee had initially slated a markup for the bill on Thursday, as that would coincide with a markup of the same bill by the SEC-overseeing Senate Banking Committee. The latter’s markup will still go ahead on Thursday as planned. 

With anticipation for the crypto bill growing, one factor that may throw a spanner in the works is a potential government shutdown, which may happen if the House fails to pass a set of government spending bills by Jan. 30.

On X, Atkins said the most important thing the government can currently do for investors is to “bring crypto asset markets out of the regulatory gray zone.”  

“Passing bipartisan market structure legislation will help us future-proof against rogue regulators, ensuring that we achieve President Trump’s goal to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the world,” Atkins said. 

The crypto market structure bill is seen as a major step in the right direction for establishing clear oversight for the US crypto market, with the bill aiming to give the SEC and CFTC primary oversight on the industry.  

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

The US banking industry has been pushing “myths” about stablecoin yields to protect itself, and Congress should prioritize consumers rather than highly profitable banks, argues crypto lecturer and author Omid Malekan. 

“I am disappointed that market structure legislation seems to be held up by the stablecoin yield issue. Most of the concerns bouncing around Washington are based on unsubstantiated myths,” said Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School, Omid Malekan, on Monday. 

He stated that the passage of crypto market structure legislation in Washington “now seems to partially depend on the question of whether stablecoin issuers should be able to share their economics with third parties.”

The primary conflict is a “yield bottleneck” regarding who gets to profit from the interest on stablecoin reserves.

The banking lobbies have labeled this a “loophole” that they want closed. They fear that if users can passively earn around 5% risk-free yields on stablecoins, customers will withdraw billions from low-interest bank accounts in a “deposit flight,” destabilizing community banks, explained technologist Paul Barron on Saturday. 

However, there are several counterarguments to these banking industry concerns, said Malekan. 

Stablecoin growth doesn’t hurt bank deposits

The idea that stablecoin growth can only lead to shrinking bank deposits is false, he argued. 

Stablecoins may actually increase bank deposits since most stablecoin demand comes from abroad. As issuers must hold reserves in Treasury bills and bank deposits, this wuld create more banking activity overall.

Secondly, stablecoin competition won’t hurt lending, just bank profits, said Malekan. Banks can compete by paying higher interest rates to depositors. Currently, the national average savings account yield is a paltry 0.62%, according to BankRate.

Related: US community banks join campaign to shut a GENIUS Act ‘loophole’

Thirdly, banks are not the dominant credit source since they provide only about 20% of US credit. Most lending comes from non-bank sources like money market funds and private credit, which could benefit from stablecoin adoption through cheaper payments and lower Treasury rates, he argued. 

Savers deserve consideration in addition to borrowers

It’s also a myth that community and regional banks are particularly vulnerable to stablecoin adoption. 

“It’s the large ‘money center’ banks that are more vulnerable,” the author said.

“The only reason this myth persists is because it’s pushed by an unholy alliance of large banks trying to protect their profits and crypto startups trying to sell smaller banks their services.”

Malekan said savers deserve consideration in addition to borrowers. Preventing stablecoin issuers from sharing yields with users essentially protects bank profits at savers’ expense, when both savers and borrowers matter for a healthy economy.

Prioritize consumers over bank profits 

The academic concluded that Congress should prioritize innovation and consumers rather than protecting highly profitable big banks. 

“Most of the concerns raised by the banking industry on this topic are unproven and unsubstantiated. Congress has done a great job of putting American progress ahead of corporate interests so far; it shouldn't stop now.”

Lawyer and Senate candidate John Deaton reminded his X followers on Monday that senators are being pressured by the Banking Lobby to not allow third-party platforms like Coinbase to pay yield on stablecoins. 

“The banks are not your friends. And neither are career politicians [...] who support them,” he said. 

Coinbase has reportedly threatened to withdraw support for the CLARITY Act if it restricts stablecoin rewards beyond disclosure requirements. 

John Deaton recommends a book by G. Edward Griffin that critiques the Federal Reserve System, suggesting it was created in secrecy by powerful individuals. Source: John E Deaton

Magazine: One metric shows crypto is now in a bear market: Carl ‘The Moon’

Eric Adams has made his first major public move since leaving the New York City Mayor’s Office, launching a New York City–themed crypto token aimed at addressing anti-semitism and “anti-Americanism.”

In a post to X on Monday, Adams announced the launch of the “NYC Token, with a link to a website that says it also aims to inspire the next wave of innovation in NYC.

“I always say there are two types of Americans, those who live in New York and those who wish they could,” Adams said in a video, adding that “We’re about to change the game.”

“If you can't make it to New York, we're going to bring New York to you,” Adams said, suggesting that the NYC-themed token was poised to “take off like crazy.”

Proud to launch @buynyctoken, a new token built to fight the rapid spread of antisemitism and anti-Americanism across this country and now in New York City.

Now live at https://t.co/zowY9Ri3aK pic.twitter.com/qBMzV88Tmj

— Eric Adams (@ericadamsfornyc) January 12, 2026

In an interview with FOX Business, Adams explained that proceeds from the NYC Token would provide funding to non-profits to raise awareness about antisemitism and anti-Americanism through education programs. It will also be used to fund education about blockchain and crypto and support scholarships for NYC students in underserved communities.

“[There’s a] wave of anti-Americanism that is sweeping not only on Ivy League college campuses but in the cities, so the goal is how do we use blockchain technology with this token, and a substantial amount of money raised from this token is going to fight those initiatives.”

NYC Token plunges soon after launch

Adam’s new memecoin, however, saw a rocky launch.

DEXScreener data shows that the Solana-based token fell from $0.47 to the $0.10 roughly 30 minutes after launching, with the market cap falling from near $500 million to less than $110 million at the time of writing.

There are also unverified accusations that the team behind the token has intentionally removed liquidity, with crypto analyst Rune citing blockchain data suggesting investors have been scammed out of more than $3.4 million.

Cointelegraph reached out to Adams for comment but didn’t receive an immediate response.

Questions remain over what’s next for the NYC token

The NYC Token website provides little information on the project’s direction. The website’s “Buy NYC Token” and “Read Whitepaper” buttons also currently don’t work.

However, information on its tokenomics states that 40% of the NYC tokens are allocated to community rewards, 25% to liquidity, 15% to development, and the remaining 20% split between marketing and the team.

The website also suggests that Adams may pursue more than a token launch, stating: “We’re creating a decentralized financial ecosystem that's as ambitious as the city itself.”

NYC has taken a change in direction

Adams was officially replaced by Zohran Mamdani on Jan. 1 following Mamdani’s victory over crypto advocate and former New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo, on Nov. 4.

Related: Crypto custody company BitGo seeks up to $201 million in US IPO 

Adams was one of the most pro-crypto mayors in the US when leading the mayor’s office and was well-known for converting some of his earliest paychecks into crypto.

Mamdani, however, adopts a far more anti-capitalist stance, a position that has drawn criticism from many in the crypto industry, with some warning that his leadership could drive tech talent out of the city.

Magazine: One metric shows crypto is now in a bear market: Carl ‘The Moon’

US President Donald Trump has pledged to make major tech companies “pick up the tab” for their power usage to prevent everyday Americans from paying more for electricity.

“I never want Americans to pay higher electricity bills because of data centers,” said Donald Trump on his social media platform Truth Social on Tuesday.

He blamed the Democrats for surging household electricity bills and vowed to work with major American tech giants to “secure their commitment to the American People,” with an announcement in the coming weeks.

The average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the average US city has increased around 40% over the past five years, according to the St. Louis Fed. 

The POTUS said that Microsoft, with whom his team has been working, will make major changes beginning this week “to ensure that Americans don’t ‘pick up the tab’ for their power consumption, in the form of paying higher utility bills.”

“We are the ‘hottest’ country in the world, and number one in AI. Data centers are key to that boom, and keeping Americans free and secure, but the big technology companies who build them must ‘pay their own way’.” 

Data center power demand surging 

In 2025, US data center demand accounted for 5.2% of America’s total power usage, or 224 terawatt hours (TWh), up 21% from the previous year, according to Visual Capitalist.

By 2030, McKinsey & Company projected that electricity consumption from US data centers could top 600 TWh, or 11.7% of all American power.

Related: Bitcoin is now 56.7% green: Here’s how it could get even cleaner

Cooling accounts for 30% to 40% of total facility energy use, while servers and IT equipment consume approximately 40% to 60% of total facility power, according to Network Installers.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency estimates that AI-focused data center electricity demand is growing at around 30% annually, compared to 9% for conventional server workloads.

US data center power consumption is set to surge 3 times by 2030. Source: Visual Capitalist

Bitcoin mining power usage

Bitcoin mining is also a power-hungry operation that relies on huge data centers to crunch the numbers in search of the next block. 

However, last week, ESG expert Daniel Batten compared the national rise in US utility bills between 2021 and 2024 to the part of the country where there was an anomalously high concentration of Bitcoin mining, Texas, finding that they were very similar.  

“Neither in the data nor in peer-reviewed studies is there evidence to support the claim that Bitcoin mining increases power bills for consumers,” he concluded. 

Bitcoin mining also has several other documented environmental benefits, such as removing bottlenecks to on-grid renewables, funding green energy research and development, and eliminating harmful methane emissions. 

Magazine: 9 weirdest AI stories from 2025: AI Eye

Meta is reportedly set to lay off around 10% of staff from its metaverse arm Reality Labs this week, as the firm focuses its resources on artificial intelligence. 

According to a report from the New York Times (NYT) on Monday, citing sources close to the matter, Meta could announce the cuts to the division as soon as Tuesday. 

Reality Labs has around 15,000 staff members. The division focuses on virtual reality (VR) gear such as headsets, as well as operating the firm’s metaverse platforms Horizon Worlds and Horizon Workrooms. 

The cuts are expected to hit around 10%, equating to 1,500 people.   

Cointelegraph reached out to Meta for comment.  

Meta cutting metaverse budget

Meta has been making gradual cuts to its metaverse budget over the past year as the firm ramped up its focus on artificial intelligence (AI). 

In early December, Meta’s shares spiked after reports emerged that the firm was potentially slashing 30% from its metaverse budget and reallocating the funds to AI.   

The NYT report also states that Meta plans to reallocate some of its money from Reality Labs to increase the budget of its wearables division, which focuses on smart glasses and wrist-worn devices such as the Meta Neural Band. 

Boxing in Meta’s metaverse. Source: Meta

The firm, formerly known as Facebook, changed its name to Meta in October 2021 as part of a major pivot from social media to the metaverse, VR and augmented reality.  

Meta has lost over $70 billion on Reality Labs since the unit was launched in August 2020, with the arm posting $4.4 billion worth of operation losses in Meta’s last financial earnings report from Q3 2025.  

Related: CFTC forms innovation committee to help shape rules for crypto, AI

At the time, the metaverse was one of the most trending sectors in crypto and traditional tech, user adoption has failed to hit mainstream levels. 

Currently, gaming-oriented metaverse platforms such as Roblox and Fortnite dominate the market, with hundreds of millions of active daily users. However, these platforms are outliers, with the rest of the sector having minuscule usage metrics in comparison. 

Meanwhile, big-name blockchain metaverses such as The Sandbox saw just 776 unique active wallets engage with the platform over the past 30 days, per data from DappRadar. Some have even claimed Meta’s Horizon Worlds sees less than 900 daily active users.   

While Meta may be cooling down on the metaverse, CEO Mark Zuckerberg appears to still be bullish on the growth potential of the metaverse, once calling 2025 a “pivotal year” for the industry.

Magazine: Bitget’s Gracy Chen is looking for ‘entrepreneurs, not wantrepreneurs’

The US Senate Agriculture Committee has pushed its markup of the crypto market structure bill to the end of January, saying it needs more time to garner support for the legislation.

Committee Chairman John Boozman said on Monday that he wanted to advance a bipartisan-supported bill and has “made meaningful progress and had constructive discussions as we work toward this goal.”

“To finalize the remaining details and ensure the broad support this legislation requires, additional time is needed before moving to markup,” he added. “The committee will mark up this legislation during the last week of January.”

The crypto industry is highly anticipating the bill as it would define how the country’s market regulators, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, would police crypto.

Source: Senate Ag Committee Republicans

The Senate Agriculture Committee oversees the CFTC and initially slated a markup for the bill on Thursday to coincide with a markup of the same bill by the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees the SEC, and is still to go ahead.

The market structure bill under consideration in the Senate is separate from the House’s CLARITY Act, which it passed in July, due to procedural rules.

Requests for ethics, stablecoin yield changes

Some of the changes that lawmakers and lobbyists are pushing to include are a ban on all stablecoin yield payments and provisions for ethics laws.

A number of Democratic Senators are pushing for conflict-of-interest guardrails in the bill, with provisions to prohibit public officials, including President Donald Trump, from profiting from any connections to crypto companies.

Bank lobbyists have also pushed for a ban on third-party platforms, such as crypto exchanges, from offering stablecoin yields after the GENIUS Act prohibited issuers from doing so.

Crypto lobby groups and companies have pressed for lawmakers to exclude software developers and non-custodial platforms from being classified as intermediaries, and therefore subject to finance rules.

Investment bank TD Cowen said earlier this month that the midterms could diminish the support needed to pass the bill, and it was more likely to pass in 2027, with its final implementation in 2029.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

US Senators Cynthia Lummis and Ron Wyden have introduced standalone legislation to ensure that blockchain developers and service providers who don’t directly handle user funds are exempt from money transmitter regulations.

The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), introduced by Lummis and Wyden on Monday, aims to clarify that writing software or maintaining networks doesn’t trigger federal or state money-transfer requirements.

There have been mounting concerns among crypto developers about being held criminally liable for the way people choose to use their software. 

Last year, Tornado Cash co-founders Roman Storm and Alexey Pertsev were found guilty of operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business in connection with the mixing protocol.

Lummis said in a statement that the bill aims to provide developers with the clarity needed to “build the future of digital finance without fear of prosecution for activities that pose no money laundering risk,” as regulatory uncertainty under the current law has “driven innovation offshore and subjected them to conflicting state regulations.”

“Blockchain developers who have simply written code and maintain open-source infrastructure have lived under threat of being classified as money transmitters for far too long.”

“This designation makes no sense when they never touch, control, or have access to user funds, and unnecessarily limits innovation,” Lummis said, adding that it's time to stop treating developers as banks simply for writing code. 

Source: Cynthia Lummis

Crypto market structure bill has similar protections

Similar protections are included in the crypto market structure bill, which is headed for a markup with the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. 

Provisions in a draft bill aren’t guaranteed, and they can be amended, watered down, or stripped during markup before it's voted to become law.

The other panel that needs to approve the market structure effort, the Senate Agriculture Committee, has delayed its hearing until the last week of January, according to a statement from Chairman John Boozman.

Related: Crypto reps fly to US Capitol this week to address market structure bill

Industry gives tick of approval

Several groups in the crypto industry have already voiced approval for the BRCA. 

Crypto lobby group, the DeFi Education Fund, said in an X post on Monday that the bill “provides critical protections for software developers of non-custodial, decentralized technologies.”

“The BRCA must be included in market structure legislation, and we encourage all Congressional leaders to join Senators Lummis and Wyden in prioritizing clarity and protections for software developers building our financial future.”

Non-profit crypto advocacy organization, the Blockchain Association, said “Clear rules are essential for innovation to thrive in the US,” and it's “critical that the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act remains in market structure legislation.”

Meanwhile, Alexander Grieve, the vice president of government affairs for investment firm Paradigm, said the BRCA is “crucial legislation to support US blockchain development.”

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

OKX user’s desperate plea

An OKX user trying to get around restrictions on Chinese users has become desperate after the crypto exchange froze funds saying the money was needed to cover urgent family medical expenses.

The user, who shared a lengthy personal appeal on X, said about $40,000 in crypto became inaccessible after OKXs risk controls locked multiple accounts linked to identity violations. The user admitted the accounts were acquired from third parties to access promotions that were unavailable to mainland China users.

In the post, the user said all funds transferred into them originated from their verified personal account. They described the funds as life-saving money needed for a family members surgery.

OKX founder Star Xu responded, and said that the exchange cannot transfer control of accounts or release assets based on personal claims, even when the claimant admits wrongdoing. Further handling is possible only if the registered account holder steps in to provide verifiable documents.

Buying and selling accounts violates the terms of service of most crypto exchanges. (Star Xu)

The user later apologized to OKX and said he would attempt to contact the accounts KYC-registered owner to seek a resolution. They added that loans from friends helped address the immediate medical emergency.

Hong Kong cautious on gold-backed stablecoins

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po has downplayed calls for gold-backed stablecoins.

Chan was responding to an audience member who suggested the city explore stablecoins backed by gold, at a Saturday forum on the citys upcoming budget.

He said Hong Kong would take a step-by-step approach to stablecoin development and stressed the need for prudence, adding that proposals to link stablecoins to gold or other assets could be examined after regulatory groundwork is completed.

Paul Chan answered an audience members call for gold-backed stablecoins on Saturday. (RTHK)

Hong Kongs stablecoin rules took effect on Aug. 1 and have since attracted a long line of applicants hoping to capitalize on the worlds largest offshore yuan market. However, Chan has said only a select few will be approved, warning that most applicants are likely to be disappointed.

Stablecoin adoption has accelerated since US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, prompting regulators worldwide to reassess their own stablecoin frameworks. 

Gold-linked stablecoins have also gained traction. Tether, the issuer of the worlds largest stablecoin USDT, has continued expanding its gold-backed offering. 

In October, Tethers XAUt market cap rose by about $500 million, lifting the gold-pegged stablecoins market capitalization to $1.5 billion, CoinMarketCap data shows. Since then, its market capitalization has climbed further to about $1.87 billion at the time of writing, as gold prices surged to record highs.

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Crypto first movers risk are becoming TradFi casualties in South Korea

A South Korean startup has accused financial regulators of favoring established institutions and sidelining a crypto pioneer as the country moves to formalize its tokenized securities market.

Lucentblocks SOU app lets users invest in fractional ownership of real estate through tokenized investment products. (Lucentblock)

Lucentblock, a blockchain-based fractional investment firm founded in 2018, said it faces possible closure after being excluded from the shortlist for South Koreas planned over-the-counter exchange for security token offerings (STOs).

In October, three groups of applicants the Korea Exchange (KRX), Nextrade (NXT) and Lucentblock submitted applications to the Financial Services Commission for preliminary approval to operate a fractional investment over-the-counter exchange.

The Financial Services Commission (FSC) is expected to finalize licenses by Wednesday. If the reported shortlist is confirmed, Lucentblock would be excluded from South Koreas first officially sanctioned STO trading infrastructure.

Lucentblock CEO Huh Se-young called for an emergency press conference on Monday, and said that the company was being pushed out of the market despite operating for seven years under South Koreas regulatory sandbox.

This is an existing business being institutionalized in a way that excludes the very companies that built the market, Huh said.

The dispute has raised broader concerns over how regulatory sandboxes transition into permanent market structures. Critics argue that startups invited to experiment often lack protection once formal licensing frameworks are introduced, allowing larger players to enter late and dominate the market.

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Vietnam to license pilot crypto exchanges by Thursday

Vietnam will license companies to participate in a pilot digital asset exchange program before Thursday as part of a regulatory sandbox aimed at bringing the local crypto market under formal oversight, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said.

The instruction was issued at a national conference on Jan. 6 reviewing the finance sectors performance in 2025 and setting priorities for 2026. 

According to a government summary of the conference, the licensing deadline was included among eight priority task groups assigned to the finance sector for the year. Five companies are reportedly expected to join the pilot.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh instructed crypto licenses for the nations sandbox be handed out this week. (Thng tin Chnh ph)

Government communications described the sandbox as a mechanism for controlled crypto experimentation while managing risks related to investor protection and Anti-Money Laundering.

Vietnams crypto market has long operated in a legal grey area, until Jan. 1, when the Law on Digital Technology Industry came into force. The law provides a legal foundation for crypto that allows for regulatory sandboxes.

Just last week, authorities in Da Nang city reportedly approved a pilot program for stablecoin conversion to and from the Vietnamese dong.

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Ethereum needs to get to a point where its value proposition remains even if developers stop active work on the protocol, according to its co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

“We must get to a place where Ethereum's value proposition does not strictly depend on any features that are not in the protocol already,” said Buterin in a post to X on Monday.

He said Ethereum protocols should aspire to be like hammers: once purchased, they remain usable, unlike services that lose functionality when a vendor walks away.

Source: Gabriel Shapiro

While Ethereum has a long technical roadmap ahead, the network needs to reach a point where its core features are fully in place, and builders can ossify if they choose, Buterin said.

“Being able to say ‘Ethereum's protocol, as it stands today, is cryptographically safe for a hundred years’ is something we should strive to get to as soon as possible,” he added.

Vitalik Buterin’s seven areas of improvement

To achieve this, Buterin called for a full quantum-resistance solution to secure Ethereum against future cryptographic threats, while a scalable architecture, including Zero-Knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machines (ZK-EVM) and Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS), would enable Ethereum to handle thousands of transactions per second. 

Buterin added a general-purpose account model for signature validation, a robust gas schedule free of security vulnerabilities, and a block-building model that can resist centralization and censorship pressures, will also crucial to ensure Ethereum stands the test of time.

“Every year, we should tick off at least one of these boxes, and ideally multiple,” in order to “maximize Ethereum's technological and social robustness for the long term,” he said.

Last week, Buterin said implementing ZK-EVM validation and PeerDAS solutions would give Ethereum greater decentralization, consensus, and high bandwidth — better positioning it to solve the blockchain trilemma that has long forced projects to sacrifice one for the others.

The Splurge part of the Ethereum technical roadmap seeks to implement cryptography solutions that make the network resistant to quantum attacks. No solution has been fully rolled out yet, however.

“Ideally, we do the hard work over the next few years, to get to a point where in the future almost all future innovation can happen through client optimization, and get reflected in the protocol through parameter changes,” said Buterin. 

Ethereum needs better decentralized stablecoins

On Sunday, Buterin also argued that Ethereum needs better decentralized stablecoins to give people greater independence from the traditional finance system.

He suggested a stablecoin backed by a diversified basket of assets and currencies, rather than relying solely on one, like the US dollar, so its stability isn’t dependent on a single nation.

Magazine: One metric shows crypto is now in a bear market: Carl ‘The Moon’

Key takeaways:

Institutional investors selling Bitcoin is visible through the Bitcoin ETFs recording $1.38 billion in net outflows across four trading sessions. 

BTC futures data shows a neutral 5% basis rate, well below the 10% level that typically defines a true bullish breakout.

Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly jumped above $92,000 on Monday after US federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Despite the odd outcome, Bitcoin traders remain skeptical due to exchange-traded fund outflows and weak demand for bullish leveraged BTC positions.

Bitcoin/USD vs. gold and silver. Source: TradingView

Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin is still down 23% since October 2025, while gold and silver reached all-time highs in 2026. This divergence has led traders to question whether the digital store-of-value narrative is losing strength. As a result, even if Bitcoin rallies another 14% toward $105,000, investors may hesitate to turn bullish, particularly as analysts grow less confident that the US will deliver further economic stimulus in the near term.

Goldman Sachs no longer expects an interest rate cut in March, citing sticky inflation and resilient labor market data despite temporary slowdowns. US President Donald Trump has openly criticized the Fed for keeping interest rates elevated, even as inflation remained above the 2% target throughout the second half of 2025. Powell’s time as Fed chair ends in April, opening the door for a successor potentially more inclined toward looser monetary policy.

Powell is being investigated over the Fed’s building renovation project, prompting analysts to question whether central bank independence could be at risk—a scenario that could favor alternative scarce assets such as Bitcoin. Powell said the action should be viewed within the broader context of the Trump administration’s threats. 

Bitcoin fails to hold $94,000 despite major corporate buying

Even as Bitcoin reclaimed $91,000 on Monday, traders showed little interest in turning bullish, according to BTC derivatives data.

BTC 2-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

Bitcoin’s risk profile appears largely unchanged by the power struggle between the Fed and the Trump administration, as the BTC futures annualized premium, or basis rate, remained near a neutral-to-bearish 5%. Periods of bullish sentiment are typically characterized by BTC futures trading at a 10% premium or more relative to spot markets.

More importantly, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $1.38 billion in net outflows across four consecutive trading days. Even more concerning, Bitcoin has been unable to sustain levels above $94,000 over the past month, despite Strategy (MSTR US) adding $1.25 billion worth of BTC. The company led by Michael Saylor announced on Monday its largest Bitcoin purchase since July 2025.

Related: Bitcoin to hit $2.9M by 2050 as it muscles into global trade–VanEck

While Bitcoin may function as an alternative hedge to the traditional financial system, there is little evidence that a confidence crisis in the US dollar is unfolding. Despite the $601 billion fiscal deficit recorded in the final three months of 2025, the US government debt has retained its investment-grade status. Meanwhile, yields on the 5-year Treasury have remained below 3.8% over the past couple of months.

US Dollar Strength Index (left) vs. US 5-year Treasury Yield. Source: TradingView

If traders were bracing for an imminent economic downturn, the US dollar would likely have weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, as measured by the DXY index. Instead, the US Dollar Strength Index rebounded to 99 from a 96.7 low in late November 2025. As a result, there is currently no clear evidence of a debasement trade, despite the strong rally in precious metals.

Ultimately, the appeal of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies remains subdued, as reflected in ETF flows and muted demand for leveraged BTC positions, suggesting relatively low odds of a surprise rally toward $105,000 in the near term.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as, legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

US Commodity Futures Trading Commission chair Mike Selig has unveiled the agency’s new innovation committee, aimed at guiding the regulation of emerging technologies like blockchain and AI, which are transforming financial markets.

The Innovation Advisory Committee replaces the Technology Advisory Committee and is looking to bring top crypto voices into the CFTC’s process to shape practical, forward-looking market regulations, Selig said on Monday.

The new committee will advise the CFTC on the “commercial, economic, and practical considerations of emerging products, platforms, and business models in the financial markets so that it can develop clear rules of the road for the Golden Age of American Financial Markets,” Selig said.

“Innovators are harnessing technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and cloud computing to modernize legacy financial systems and build entirely new ones.”

Blockchain is changing finance by enabling faster, cheaper, and more transparent transactions in markets that can run 24/7/365, while AI more efficiently analyzes data sets to optimize trading and risk management, among other things.

Source: Mike Selig

The CFTC’s latest move follows in the footsteps of the Securities and Exchange Commission by adopting a more tech-friendly approach to regulation to attract innovators. 

Industry leaders to shape the views of CFTC

Selig will sponsor the new committee and intends to nominate the 12 CEO Innovation Council participants as its charter members. 

Among them are top crypto executives, including Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek and Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi.

From the traditional financial firms, executives, including Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeff Sprecher, Cboe Global Markets CEO Craig Donohue, and Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman, are also part of the list.

Selig is also seeking nominations for additional IAC membership, with applications open until Jan. 31, 2026.

The CFTC stated that it would also consider the viewpoints of regulatory bodies, academia, and public interest groups.

US government, private sector must share common goal: A16z

Tech-focused venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) said last Friday that crypto innovation will be critical to securing America’s future and winning the next century.

Related: Crypto custody company BitGo seeks up to $201 million in US IPO 

A16z said alignment between the US government and the private sector is crucial to defend American interests, warning that failure could cost the country its dominance:

“If America fails to win technologically, it will lose economically, militarily, geopolitically, and culturally. And the entire world will lose as well.”

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Paul Atkins, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), didn’t rule out the possibility of authorities seizing Venezuela’s reported Bitcoin holdings after US forces unseated and captured the country’s president.

In a Monday interview with Fox Business’ Stuart Varney, Atkins responded to reports claiming that Venezuela holds up to $60 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC), though several analysts said they were unable to verify these claims. The SEC chair said it “remains to be seen” what action, if any, the US would take if it had the opportunity to seize the reported 600,000 BTC. 

“I leave that to others in the administration to deal with — I’m not involved in that,” said Atkins in response to a question on whether the US would “take those Bitcoin off ‘em.”

Reports of Venezuela’s Bitcoin holdings surfaced after US forces, at the direction of President Donald Trump, captured then-President Nicolás Maduro last week and removed him to the United States to face criminal charges in New York. 

As of the time of publication, blockchain analysts and intelligence platforms had not confirmed the reported $60 billion in crypto, but the Maduro regime had previously been involved with aspects of the industry. For example, the country launched an oil-backed digital currency in 2018.

Senate to hold market structure markup on Thursday

Atkins’ remarks came a few days before the US Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to hold a markup on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY.

House of Representatives lawmakers passed the bill in July, and it has been under review in the Senate for months, likely slowed by a 43-day government shutdown in October and November.

Banks and some crypto companies have also expressed concerns about provisions dealing with stablecoin rewards within the draft bill, and many Democrats are reportedly calling for stronger ethics guardrails and clarification on decentralized finance.

The bill could be delayed amid campaigning for the 2026 midterm elections and another potential government shutdown at the end of January. However, early drafts of the legislation showed lawmakers were attempting to give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission more authority to regulate digital assets.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Credit rating company Fitch Ratings has flagged a high degree of risk associated with Bitcoin-backed securities, a warning that could complicate the expansion of crypto-linked credit products among institutional investors.

In a Monday assessment, Fitch said Bitcoin-backed securities, financial instruments typically structured by pooling Bitcoin (BTC) or Bitcoin-linked assets and issuing debt against that collateral, carry “heightened risks” that “are consistent with speculative-grade credit profiles.”

The agency said such characteristics could place the products in speculative-grade territory, a designation associated with weaker credit quality and a higher likelihood of losses.

As one of the three major US credit rating companies, Fitch’s evaluations play an influential role in how banks, asset managers and other institutions assess emerging financial instruments, particularly those tied to volatile asset classes.

Fitch pointed to the “inherent” price volatility of Bitcoin as well as counterparty risks embedded in these structures.

The agency also referenced the wave of crypto lender failures during the 2022–2023 downturn, likely a reference to BlockFi and Celsius, as cautionary examples of how quickly collateral-backed models can unravel during periods of market stress.

Source: DustyBC Crypto

“Bitcoin’s price volatility is a main risk consideration,” Fitch said, warning that breaches of coverage levels could rapidly erode collateral value and crystallize losses. 

Coverage levels refer to the ratio of Bitcoin collateral to the amount of debt issued against it. Sharp price declines can cause that ratio to fall below required thresholds, triggering margin calls and forced liquidations.

The latest assessment follows an earlier warning from Fitch last month, when the agency cautioned US banks about elevated risks tied to significant digital asset exposure. At the time, Fitch cited potential reputational, liquidity and compliance risks for banks that are actively engaged in crypto-related activities.

Bitcoin’s growing role in corporate credit, and where Fitch draws the line

Bitcoin has increasingly become central to the credit profiles of public companies with large digital asset holdings, particularly those issuing convertible notes or secured debt.

A prominent example is Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, which has amassed nearly 688,000 Bitcoin.

The company has financed this strategy through repeated capital raises, including convertible notes, secured debt and equity issuances, to expand its Bitcoin exposure. As a result, Strategy’s balance sheet and credit profile are now correlated with movements in Bitcoin’s market price.

Fitch’s warning, however, appears to focus more narrowly on credit and securitized instruments where repayment is directly dependent on the value of underlying collateral. The assessment does not reference spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which are structured as equity-like investment vehicles rather than credit products.

In fact, Fitch noted that ETF adoption could contribute to “a more diverse holder base,” a development that may “potentially dampen” Bitcoin’s price volatility during periods of market stress.

The strengths and weaknesses of BTC-backed securities. Source: Fitch Ratings

Bitmine Immersion Technologies expanded its Ether holdings over the past week as its chairman urged shareholders to approve a proposal that would allow the company to further build its crypto treasury and staking operations.

The company said it purchased 24,266 Ether (ETH) over the past week, lifting its total crypto holdings to about 4.17 million ETH, or 3.4% of the token’s circulating supply.

According to Monday’s announcement, the company reported about $14 billion in combined crypto and cash holdings, including $988 million in cash. In addition to ETH, it holds 193 Bitcoin (BTC) and a $23 million stake in Eightco Holdings.

Bitmine also expanded its staking activity, with about 1.26 million ETH currently staked, up 596,864 ETH from the prior week. Staking involves locking cryptocurrency to help run a blockchain network in return for yield. Bitmine is working on its own staking platform, with plans to deploy it in early 2026.

The update also brought renewed calls from Tom Lee for shareholder approval of an increase in authorized shares, which the company says is needed to support its strategy, ahead of its annual meeting scheduled for Thursday in Las Vegas.

Lee said the company’s charter requires approval from a majority of outstanding shares and warned that without additional authorization, Bitmine’s ability to continue acquiring Ether could be limited.

Bitmine shares were up 3% in early trading, according to Yahoo Finance data, while Ether (ETH) was trading near $3,100, down 3.3% over the past seven days.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Bitmine, Strategy dominate digital asset treasury companies

2025 saw a wave of digital asset treasury companies emerge, as entities adopted strategies centered on holding Bitcoin, Ether and other cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets. While hundreds of companies have entered the space with varying approaches, treasury holdings have become highly concentrated.

According to data from CoinGecko, Bitmine has established itself as the largest Ether treasury company by a wide margin, holding 4,167,768 ETH valued at nearly $13 billion, compared with Sharplink, the second-largest holder, which reports 864,840 ETH and The Ether Machine, which holds just under 500,000 ETH.

Top five Ether treasury companies. Source: CoinGecko

On the Bitcoin side, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, continues to dwarf other corporate holders after pioneering the Bitcoin treasury model in 2020. The company holds 687,410 BTC, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, far ahead of Mara Holdings Inc. with 53,250 BTC and Twenty One Capital with 43,514 BTC.

Top five Bitcoin treasury companies. BitcoinTreasuries.NET

Neither company has shown any signs of slowing down. Last week, Strategy added 13,627 BTC to its balance sheet at a cost of $1.25 billion, marking its largest Bitcoin purchase since July. Bitmine has said it is targeting ownership of 5% of Ether’s total supply, or about 6 million ETH.

Magazine: Bitget’s Gracy Chen is looking for ‘entrepreneurs, not wantrepreneurs’

Ether’s (ETH) futures and spot markets are sending mixed signals as futures positioning builds, but the altcoin’s price fails to make new highs. Data suggested that ETH traders are adding to their exposure even as spot buying underpins the recovery.

Key takeaways:

Ether’s estimated leverage ratio fell from an all-time high of 0.79 on Jan. 2 to 0.67 by Jan. 11, despite rising open interest.

Aggregate spot CVD increased with the rally, indicating spot-led demand with a bullish positioning bias.

Ether open interest rebounds, but the price lags

Aggregated open interest (OI) for Ether futures has returned to levels seen before its 38% drawdown in Q4 2025, while ETH still trades roughly 27% below its October 10, 2025, opening price. This divergence suggests traders are rebuilding exposure.

Ether open interest and price. Source: X

Supporting this view, Ether’s estimated leverage ratio peaked at 0.79 on Jan. 2 before falling to 0.67 by Jan. 11. While OI continues to rise, the decline in leverage pointed to healthier positioning and a lower risk of cascading liquidations.

Meanwhile, the latest rally has been driven by rising spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), rather than the futures CVD. This indicates net market buying in the spot market, which is typically associated with more durable price moves. The long/short accounts ratio holding near 2.66 reflects a bullish skew, without signs of traders aggressively jumping into the market.

ETH price, spot CVD, futures CVD, and long/short ratio. Source: Coinalyze

Related: Standard Chartered said to plan crypto brokerage, trims ETH forecast

ETH Staking flows, and macro signals add tailwinds

Onchain data shows growing long-term conviction. Lookonchain reported that BitMine staked 110,000 ETH worth $340 million on Jan. 12, bringing its three-week total to roughly $3.7 billion. At a 2.8% yield, this could generate nearly $95 million in ETH annually for the company. 

From a market structure point of view, Max, CEO of BecauseBitcoin, noted that the Russell 2000 has historically led ETH into price discovery. With the index hitting a new all-time high at 2,664, conditions may favor expansion for ETH in the coming weeks.

Russell 2000 and ETH historical price comparison. Source: Max/X

Echoing that view, crypto investor Jelle said Ether turning a major weekly resistance into support “feels pretty big,” adding that a strong higher low after last year’s crash leaves $4,000 as the key hurdle. Above it, ETH “could finally have its moment,” noted the investor. 

Related: Bank of Italy models Ethereum risks if ETH value collapsed

Cryptocurrency infrastructure platform Bakkt Holdings announced an agreement to purchase Distributed Technologies Research, a stablecoin and fiat payments infrastructure provider.

In a Monday notice, Bakkt said the agreement will have the company issue more than nine million shares of its Class A common stock to Distributed Technologies Research shareholders. At the time of publication, the price of shares of Bakkt Holdings (BKKT) on the New York Stock Exchange was $19.54, having surged more than 20% in the previous 24 hours, which would would make the deal worth more than $178 million. 

“The acquisition will allow Bakkt to consolidate a critical piece of its stablecoin settlement infrastructure and prepares the company to launch its neobanking strategy with multiple distribution partners in the coming months,” said Mike Alfred, the director and member of the special committee of Bakkt’s board.

Source: Bakkt

Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange and a 31% shareholder of Bakkt’s Class A common stock, will vote in favor of the deal. Akshay Naheta, who founded Distributed Technologies Research in 2022, will remain CEO of Bakkt following the merger.

According to Bakkt, the merger was part of a strategy to form a “unified financial infrastructure platform” and expand its payment and banking use cases in 2026. The company said the deal was subject to regulatory and shareholder approval.

Crypto deals, acquisitions hit record high in 2025

According to a December Financial Times report, the crypto and blockchain industry saw $8.6 billion worth of deals in 2025. Among the most significant of the acquisitions included crypto exchange Coinbase buying options trading platform Deribit for $2.9 billion, Kraken buying Ninjatrader for $1.5 billion, and Ripple Labs acquiring Hidden Road for $1.2 billion.

Two weeks into 2026, other crypto companies have made similar moves. Fireblocks acquired crypto accounting platform TRES for $130 million and Coincheck purchased digital asset manager 3iQ for $112 million. The latter deal is expected to close in the second quarter.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) onchain data shows BTC whales are active as the price attempts to extend its breakout from the $90,000 level.

Key takeaways

Bitcoin whale spending surged to $286 million, the largest spike since early November.

Momentum indicators are bullish, but volatility is likely this week. 

Data from Capriole Investments indicated that OG Whale spent value, i.e., Bitcoin moved after remaining dormant for more than seven years, jumped to roughly $286 million on Jan. 10. This marked the strongest resurgence in old-coin activity since November 3, 2025, when the metric spiked near $570 million and coincided with BTC’s market correction. 

BTC OG Whale Spent Value. Source: Capriole Investments

While such movements often raise fears of distribution, the OG whale activity reflects strategic profit-taking rather than panic selling. 

Despite this, onchain data suggested Bitcoin remained in a better position to absorb this supply. According to Glassnode, long-term holder distribution has decelerated sharply with net outflows rolling over from previously extreme levels, signaling that much of the overhead supply from older coins may already be worked through.

A recent report from Cointelegraph also highlighted multiple signals pointing to a slowdown in long-term selling pressure, which could lead to price expansion. Likewise, accumulator addresses, wallets that consistently buy without distributing, have continued to add BTC in 2026, amassing nearly 136,000 BTC in just 11 days this month.

Bitcoin accumulator addresses demand. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Fed rate cuts under fire: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bullish signals flash for BTC, but volatility remains in play

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s momentum structure continues to improve. BTC’s 5-day MACD has flipped bullish, a setup last seen near the 2022 bear market bottom. Previously, this signal preceded a rally of more than 430%, noted by crypto commentator Myles G.

BTC’s 5-day MACD bullish reversal analysis. Source: X/Myles G

However, traders cautioned that near-term pullbacks remain part of Bitcoin’s price action. BTC trader Killa noted that for seven consecutive months, BTC has averaged a 5% dip below the 14th weekly open candle, a pattern that could briefly drag price toward the $86,000 to $87,000 zone.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst OSHO highlighted improving order book dynamics. Aggregated liquidity data shows buyers gaining the upper hand, with bid-side liquidity outweighing asks across spot and futures markets. Liquidity is also clustering between $89,200 and $89,700, setting a critical pivot after the New York session.

Bitcoin liquidity levels. Source: X

If demand holds, Bitcoin’s ability to absorb OG whale supply could still fuel a push toward the $100,000 psychological level. That move may first require a liquidity sweep below $89,000, with price acceptance in the $89,000 to $87,000 range acting as the key signal.

Bitcoin four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A strong rebound from that zone would indicate passive bids have been filled, opening the door to a $100,000 test as early as next week. Failure to do so increases the risk of a deeper pullback toward $86,000, with external liquidity near $84,000 as the longer-term target.

Related: Strategy makes biggest Bitcoin purchase since July 2025, adds $1.25B in BTC