龚有柴GongYouchai
YouTube及X同名，一个比特币老玩家，《自然交易理论》学者及导师，专注技术分析。欢迎免费加入有财会员查看交易策略。
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Falling while developing?
What is truly worth watching in these days is not the market itself, but the rules in motion.🙂
While the market is still digesting the intense fluctuations from a few days ago, it has already been made clear here in Hong Kong that stablecoin licenses will start to be issued in March.
The quantity won't be large, the standards won't be low; the core focus is not on the narrative, but on reserve assets, risk control, and cross-border compliance.
This moment is actually very subtle.
Prices are falling, sentiments are retreating, but regulation is moving forward.
Once stablecoins are officially incorporated into the regulatory system, the logic of on-chain deposits, withdrawals, and settlements will be re-priced.
While the market is still digesting the intense fluctuations from a few days ago, it has already been made clear here in Hong Kong that stablecoin licenses will start to be issued in March.
The quantity won't be large, the standards won't be low; the core focus is not on the narrative, but on reserve assets, risk control, and cross-border compliance.
This moment is actually very subtle.
Prices are falling, sentiments are retreating, but regulation is moving forward.
Once stablecoins are officially incorporated into the regulatory system, the logic of on-chain deposits, withdrawals, and settlements will be re-priced.
After the crash, is there more to come?
The feeling in the market over the past couple of days can be summed up in one word: urgent.🙂
On January 31, when Bitcoin fell below 80,000 USD, the market shifted from a correction to a panic sell-off.
The bulls are not looking to sell, they are being forced to sell by the system.
More importantly, this time it is not just the crypto market that is shaking; precious metals are also experiencing significant volatility.
This indicates that the liquidity contraction behind this round of sell-off is not simply because someone suddenly lost confidence in a certain coin.
Bitcoin has been probing down from below 80,000, with a low approaching around 75,000 USD.
Ethereum fell below 2,300 USD, with intraday prices sliding to even lower levels.
On January 31, when Bitcoin fell below 80,000 USD, the market shifted from a correction to a panic sell-off.
The bulls are not looking to sell, they are being forced to sell by the system.
More importantly, this time it is not just the crypto market that is shaking; precious metals are also experiencing significant volatility.
This indicates that the liquidity contraction behind this round of sell-off is not simply because someone suddenly lost confidence in a certain coin.
Bitcoin has been probing down from below 80,000, with a low approaching around 75,000 USD.
Ethereum fell below 2,300 USD, with intraday prices sliding to even lower levels.
Why is trading so difficult? Today let's talk about the two main points:
First, making small profits is easy because it aligns with human nature, what we often refer to as 'locking in profits'. In trading, many people often exit the market after making a small profit, only to regret it when the price rebounds. This situation continuously reinforces the idea of 'running away with small profits', leading you further down the wrong path.
Second, taking small losses is difficult because it goes against human nature. In trading, after a price drop followed by a rebound, unrealistic expectations arise, causing hesitation and an inability to cut losses in time. As a result, small losses turn into large ones, and eventually, one can only shut down the computer and escape reality. This escapism makes it hard for people to break free.
Such trading results are often small profits and large losses, which is exactly the opposite of the results achieved by experts—experts often have small losses and large gains. Therefore, trading is counterintuitive and requires overcoming human weaknesses like desire, greed, fear, and avoidance.
First, making small profits is easy because it aligns with human nature, what we often refer to as 'locking in profits'. In trading, many people often exit the market after making a small profit, only to regret it when the price rebounds. This situation continuously reinforces the idea of 'running away with small profits', leading you further down the wrong path.
Second, taking small losses is difficult because it goes against human nature. In trading, after a price drop followed by a rebound, unrealistic expectations arise, causing hesitation and an inability to cut losses in time. As a result, small losses turn into large ones, and eventually, one can only shut down the computer and escape reality. This escapism makes it hard for people to break free.
Such trading results are often small profits and large losses, which is exactly the opposite of the results achieved by experts—experts often have small losses and large gains. Therefore, trading is counterintuitive and requires overcoming human weaknesses like desire, greed, fear, and avoidance.
Even if the counterfeit season really arrives, I must remind myself to only invest in strong, clearly structured, and well-aligned cryptocurrencies. Don't waste time, energy, and funds betting on those half-dead junk coins, and don't expect them to suddenly 'thrive after accumulating'.
The speculative market is not like falling in love; it sounds romantic, but in practice, it always comes at a cost. Those cryptocurrencies with real funding and confidence will always be the first to start and provide feedback. #山寨季何时到来？
The speculative market is not like falling in love; it sounds romantic, but in practice, it always comes at a cost. Those cryptocurrencies with real funding and confidence will always be the first to start and provide feedback. #山寨季何时到来？
Yesterday, Bitcoin's price broke the $100,000 mark, rising over 6%, but nearly 200,000 people were liquidated, and 80% of the short positions evaporated.
Wall Street giants like BlackRock are hoarding coins through ETFs, controlling the pricing power. With continuous policy dividends, Bitcoin is gradually becoming a 'quasi-official asset', and global inflation has made it a new safe-haven choice.
However, retail investors are clearly no match for the big players. Institutions use fake orders to fish for stop-loss points. Once the price breaks through key levels, high-leverage short positions are instantly forced to close, with $840 million in short positions evaporating in an instant. Market computing power is concentrated, and regulation may tighten at any time, while popular coins are still diverting funds.
Is $100,000 the starting point for wealth, or a trap for massive losses?
Remember, the pricing power is in the hands of institutions. Don't touch high leverage, or you'll turn into chives in no time.
Wall Street giants like BlackRock are hoarding coins through ETFs, controlling the pricing power. With continuous policy dividends, Bitcoin is gradually becoming a 'quasi-official asset', and global inflation has made it a new safe-haven choice.
However, retail investors are clearly no match for the big players. Institutions use fake orders to fish for stop-loss points. Once the price breaks through key levels, high-leverage short positions are instantly forced to close, with $840 million in short positions evaporating in an instant. Market computing power is concentrated, and regulation may tighten at any time, while popular coins are still diverting funds.
Is $100,000 the starting point for wealth, or a trap for massive losses?
Remember, the pricing power is in the hands of institutions. Don't touch high leverage, or you'll turn into chives in no time.
What is the secret of trading?
In fact, true trading experts do not frequently buy and sell, but patiently wait, looking for only a few of the most certain trading signals each month. Waiting is the hardest part of trading; it tests the trader's patience and mindset. Many people cannot stand the silence of the market and always feel compelled to trade signals they are not familiar with, just to pursue that thrill, often paying the price for their impulsiveness.
Truly outstanding traders maintain a calm mindset and know when to take action. Because they understand deeply that the essence of trading lies in: slowing down to go further. #交易故事
In fact, true trading experts do not frequently buy and sell, but patiently wait, looking for only a few of the most certain trading signals each month. Waiting is the hardest part of trading; it tests the trader's patience and mindset. Many people cannot stand the silence of the market and always feel compelled to trade signals they are not familiar with, just to pursue that thrill, often paying the price for their impulsiveness.
Truly outstanding traders maintain a calm mindset and know when to take action. Because they understand deeply that the essence of trading lies in: slowing down to go further. #交易故事
Buffett, Dalio, and other investment moguls have consistently held a critical view of Bitcoin.
As successful figures and thought leaders in the traditional financial sector, they may find it difficult to understand or be unwilling to accept the arrival of the new digital economy era.
History tends to repeat itself; the successful figures of the past often become the opponents of change in a new era.
As a vested interest in traditional finance, Buffett naturally dislikes changes to the rules of the game. This is akin to how Tesla faced suppression from traditional gasoline vehicles when it first emerged, or how Einstein strongly opposed Bohr's quantum mechanics theory.
Progress is made through the collision of old and new ideas.
As successful figures and thought leaders in the traditional financial sector, they may find it difficult to understand or be unwilling to accept the arrival of the new digital economy era.
History tends to repeat itself; the successful figures of the past often become the opponents of change in a new era.
As a vested interest in traditional finance, Buffett naturally dislikes changes to the rules of the game. This is akin to how Tesla faced suppression from traditional gasoline vehicles when it first emerged, or how Einstein strongly opposed Bohr's quantum mechanics theory.
Progress is made through the collision of old and new ideas.
US Treasuries are beginning to be auctioned; what impact will this have on the market?
This week, the United States will auction 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds. In the current environment of high borrowing costs, selling bonds may reduce the amount of money in the market. If the auction is robust, with strong demand and stable interest rates, market fluctuations will not be too significant. However, if the auction performs poorly, with weak demand and soaring interest rates, the market may fall into panic, fearing issues with US debt. This could lead to a sharp decline in the bond market, affect US stocks, and risk assets like Bitcoin may also suffer, while the dollar's volatility could increase.
However, the recent performance of US bond auctions has been fairly good, especially for the 10-year government bonds, which sold well. It is important to note that domestic buyers in the US are highly enthusiastic, while overseas buyers show little interest. This means that US Treasuries are absorbing more funds from American investors, potentially reducing the available capital in the US investment market.
Next, there will be a sale of 30-year US Treasuries, which will further tighten liquidity, leading to less capital and putting more pressure on the short-term market. In other words, this may compress the upward potential of the cryptocurrency market. #BTC交易
This week, the United States will auction 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds. In the current environment of high borrowing costs, selling bonds may reduce the amount of money in the market. If the auction is robust, with strong demand and stable interest rates, market fluctuations will not be too significant. However, if the auction performs poorly, with weak demand and soaring interest rates, the market may fall into panic, fearing issues with US debt. This could lead to a sharp decline in the bond market, affect US stocks, and risk assets like Bitcoin may also suffer, while the dollar's volatility could increase.
However, the recent performance of US bond auctions has been fairly good, especially for the 10-year government bonds, which sold well. It is important to note that domestic buyers in the US are highly enthusiastic, while overseas buyers show little interest. This means that US Treasuries are absorbing more funds from American investors, potentially reducing the available capital in the US investment market.
Next, there will be a sale of 30-year US Treasuries, which will further tighten liquidity, leading to less capital and putting more pressure on the short-term market. In other words, this may compress the upward potential of the cryptocurrency market. #BTC交易
The "Bitcoinization" of the United States is accelerating, and $100,000 may just be a new starting point for Bitcoin.
Recently, Arizona and New Hampshire passed Bitcoin reserve laws, and Texas is also actively promoting related legislation, with more states expected to join this trend in the future. This series of actions indicates that the financial reserves of the United States are gradually leaning towards Bitcoin.
In the past, it was companies purchasing Bitcoin, but now state governments are getting directly involved, incorporating Bitcoin into their strategic reserve assets, and even authorizing financial officials to purchase it directly. This can be seen as a national-level accumulation of Bitcoin. This is distinctly different from ordinary retail investors' speculative activities, indicating the strategic importance of Bitcoin at the official level.
As the credit crisis of U.S. Treasury bonds intensifies and state governments increase their involvement with Bitcoin, the role of Bitcoin is undergoing a transformation. It is no longer just digital gold; it is gradually becoming a presence similar to "U.S. central bank assets." Its investment logic is also undergoing fundamental changes.
If Bitcoin can truly become a global digital reserve asset in the future, then breaking and stabilizing above the $100,000 mark is just a matter of time, and this may just be a new starting point for Bitcoin's value to take off. #BTC突破99K
Recently, Arizona and New Hampshire passed Bitcoin reserve laws, and Texas is also actively promoting related legislation, with more states expected to join this trend in the future. This series of actions indicates that the financial reserves of the United States are gradually leaning towards Bitcoin.
In the past, it was companies purchasing Bitcoin, but now state governments are getting directly involved, incorporating Bitcoin into their strategic reserve assets, and even authorizing financial officials to purchase it directly. This can be seen as a national-level accumulation of Bitcoin. This is distinctly different from ordinary retail investors' speculative activities, indicating the strategic importance of Bitcoin at the official level.
As the credit crisis of U.S. Treasury bonds intensifies and state governments increase their involvement with Bitcoin, the role of Bitcoin is undergoing a transformation. It is no longer just digital gold; it is gradually becoming a presence similar to "U.S. central bank assets." Its investment logic is also undergoing fundamental changes.
If Bitcoin can truly become a global digital reserve asset in the future, then breaking and stabilizing above the $100,000 mark is just a matter of time, and this may just be a new starting point for Bitcoin's value to take off. #BTC突破99K
Dogecoin enthusiasts believe that Musk leaving the DOGE department to return to Tesla is a good thing, but in reality, the true bad news is being forced to distance himself from the White House.
The support and expansion of political power are the keys to Musk's continued endeavors in the future. He may be engaging in politics for several reasons: first, technology has hit a bottleneck, and he needs power to provide a buffer of resources; second, technological applications are hindered, and he needs policies to pave the way; third, he wants to replicate China's successful model.
Therefore, Musk's setbacks in politics are Tesla's setbacks. Being forced to step back from the core circle of Washington not only signifies Musk's political investments failing but, more importantly, that certain hidden crises may erupt. Thus, on one hand, Musk reluctantly reduces his investment in Dogecoin rather than completely leaving; on the other hand, he doubles down on praising Trump. Because losing in political games could likely lead to disastrous consequences.
The support and expansion of political power are the keys to Musk's continued endeavors in the future. He may be engaging in politics for several reasons: first, technology has hit a bottleneck, and he needs power to provide a buffer of resources; second, technological applications are hindered, and he needs policies to pave the way; third, he wants to replicate China's successful model.
Therefore, Musk's setbacks in politics are Tesla's setbacks. Being forced to step back from the core circle of Washington not only signifies Musk's political investments failing but, more importantly, that certain hidden crises may erupt. Thus, on one hand, Musk reluctantly reduces his investment in Dogecoin rather than completely leaving; on the other hand, he doubles down on praising Trump. Because losing in political games could likely lead to disastrous consequences.
Tonight, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, with results announced at 2 PM and Chairman Powell starting to speak at 2:30 PM. The result of the May meeting was a 100% probability of no rate cuts, while tonight's main focus is Powell's expectations for June—will there be a rate cut in June?
According to current interest rate market data, the probability of no rate cut in June is 70%, while the probability of a rate cut is 30%. Therefore, the likelihood of a negative outcome is relatively high, but not 100%. In this case, I believe that a 70% probability of a negative outcome is enough to consider exiting at the current high point, to first avoid risk and observe. #美联储FOMC会议
According to current interest rate market data, the probability of no rate cut in June is 70%, while the probability of a rate cut is 30%. Therefore, the likelihood of a negative outcome is relatively high, but not 100%. In this case, I believe that a 70% probability of a negative outcome is enough to consider exiting at the current high point, to first avoid risk and observe. #美联储FOMC会议
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