Henryzhang的研究所

Analysis of today's market crash.
1 Trump imposed tariffs on countries stationed in Greenland. These countries do not stay passive and retaliate directly; if you raise, I raise too.
2 Powell is likely to act out of spite, thinking 'If you want me in prison, I simply won't cut interest rates!' The probability of a rate cut has drastically decreased.
3 The meme completed a great retreat, you and I footed the bill, sigh. Market sentiment has also been dragged down.
4 Several large order pillars are horizontal around 96000, preventing any upward movement. If you go up, you have to fight hard.
5 The effect of Sun; he is too active. Every time he comes out at the end of a market trend, it results in a bloodbath. Damn it.

How to change your life in one day.
Author: DAN KOE
This is an article with over a hundred million reads. Related BSCmeme surged 400 times!
In this article, I will briefly explain to everyone.
First, change is not self-discipline; it's changing the perception of "who you are."
Be proactive instead of reactive, don’t wait.
Second, motivate yourself with the pain of the future, imagine the terrible life of inaction.
Third, life is a game of developing focus. Finding focus in the game is a kind of success.
Fourth, you can initiate it in one day, you can start in one day.
Too many people die halfway, not seeing the horror of the future.
A meaningless life, I would rather not have it!

The two-year ROI mining water heater has been debunked, but it seems to have opened up a new track?
A mining water heater priced at $2000 cannot recoup its cost.
Let's do the math.
1 BTC will not consistently remain above $90,000 in price over the next two years. That’s for sure. Volatility is the norm in cryptocurrency.
2 The iteration of mining equipment is very fast. During the two-year period, higher-grade miners will come out, significantly reducing mining efficiency.
3 Currently, the efficiency covers the $2000 equipment cost over two years. However, there are also electricity costs and heat loss costs. The overall cost of electricity consumption and heat loss over two years, plus the two thousand dollars. It's hard to imagine recouping the costs.
In summary, recouping costs is impossible.
However, it seems to provide an idea for home mining solutions.
After all, some appliances will always incur losses, and mining on the side could be beneficial.
Therefore, home mining machines definitely have a large market.
1 Long-term use of appliances that always have normal wear and tear. For example, air conditioners, televisions, and this water heater. The challenge is to avoid increasing additional losses, collecting value within normal wear and tear.
2 Eco-friendly + mining. Eco-friendliness as a premise, converting wasted energy into valuable coins. This idea cannot be considered wrong.
If projects move in this direction, they will be attractive.

Trust in BSC chain memes has already started to erode. The sudden surge in Binance Life cannot restore retail investors' confidence.
@Yi He
On-chain markets require confidence as the foundation for profitability.
I've come here to trigger this rally—this is a good thing, regardless of whether it's driven by flattery. At least confidence is recovering.
But now, I have to be honest: BSC has severely damaged retail investors' confidence.
This rally was short-lived—only two days. Retail investors might only wake up to it for one day.
What's most excited right now are the long-time on-chain P rookies, not the retail investors who keep getting repeatedly wiped out.
Retail investors won't make money during these two days.
Especially with extremely low meme caps and extremely fast price movements these days. Any attempt at patience will result in loss.
Writing this isn't about complaining—it's just that if things continue like this, there'll be nothing left to play.
The biggest problem is the loss of confidence.
Key issues that need to be addressed:
1. The recently launched ALPHA last night was again manipulated by insider addresses, which were exposed. This issue is significant. If such behavior keeps getting caught, no one will trust your integrity. No matter how good your project is, people won't follow.
2. P rookies spreading technical strategies to artificially create 'top coins' and then dump on retail investors. That is, when a trend emerges, P rookies quickly accumulate massive holdings, while retail investors are left with the liquidity and get trapped. This makes the market unplayable. This approach destroys the liquidity of any trending token, eliminating any real upward potential.
3. The current atmosphere in the Chinese-speaking meme space is overly profit-driven and lacks the depth a proper blockchain should have. Retail investors lack discernment and react with anger after being exploited. Anyone who genuinely wants to grow this ecosystem shouldn't promote the P rookie style. PEPE's rise truly had the right atmosphere and momentum. But BSC currently shows no sign of that.
4. To rebuild confidence, we must start from the root. BSC needs a revolution—a completely new gameplay. Abandon the current model entirely. The few entrenched 'technical' players have monopolized the scene, leaving no chance for retail investors, who are just being exploited. This isn't sustainable.

War seems imminent!
After the U.S. issued a security alert for Iran, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to Iran's currency has approached zero,
and prediction markets are beginning to increase their risk exposure.
Currently, the only concern for President Trump is the midterm elections. The market cannot afford a crash during the midterm elections.
Releasing risks early and giving the market some expectations might prevent excessive fear.

What can I say?
When the chance comes.
I damn well ran away!

BTC crash analysis:
1 The US president seized the ship of Russia in Venezuela, triggering panic over uncertainty about conflict.
2 Polymarket predicts the probability of the US taking action against Iran is increasing. A mysterious address bought and then withdrew bets on Israel taking action; this address has successfully predicted major events multiple times and profited significantly.
3 Sol chain had just started to recover, but the Japanese meme series fled, and as soon as the scam emerged, the market trend ended immediately.
4 A key figure on the leaderboard sold physical assets, leading to a favorable downturn. No one is playing anymore.
5 Watching the drama costs nothing, but working hard costs you money.

Low market cap projects that are cleaned up are just here to give money, remember.

In April 2024, I was the one who told you to buy the dip when the market hit its lowest point.
Just like in December 2025, I encouraged you to dollar-cost average into aster.
Those who followed, start reaping the rewards as the market begins to reverse!
That's what I said!

The first alpha of the new year seems to be a product with three lacks.
The airdrop was quite generous.
Twitter hadn't been updated for a month and suddenly the alpha appeared.
It seems there is a conspiracy brewing.
I can only take a gamble.

Those institutions that publicly claim to increase their BTC holdings are just a bunch of fools.
You buy so much, who the heck is going to take it off your hands!
It's normal to draw the line, because no one wants to take on someone else's burden!

The demon coin among demon coins, the super big player $pippin, can no longer be described as against the heavens.
The contract positions have already driven the short selling volume of the large short sellers to 2M, but they still have to pay funding fees for shorting. What the hell, the big guy in the void is shorting, and the retail investors have the money?
In large capital trading, 99% is operated by robots. Such obvious manipulation is truly not typical.
In this game, no one can win.
No one dares to enter, tempting you to short, eating your fees until you are exhausted. When you increase your position, they just push it up to blow you out.
What the hell...

Brothers, we have correctly bottomed out; ASTER will use up to 80% of daily expenses for buybacks.
This is a long-term benefit, gradually leading to deflation and slowly reducing the circulating supply of coins.
Regular investment means believing that the project team will continue to work.
Regular investment means believing that this sector will unleash unexpected power in the future.

Analysis of the top three gains of Binance contracts today.
BEAT ca:0xcf3232b85b43bca90e51d38cc06cc8bb8c8a3e36
1 The project party controls 39.17% of the supply through a proxy contract, and there has only been controlled distribution without market sell-offs in the past 30 days.
2 32% of the tokens are locked, with the next major unlocking in November 2029, but 60% of the supply is unaccounted for.
3 Main liquidity is in the PancakeSwap CLMM pool ($3.66 million TVL), but trading is mainly on CEX ($128 million daily trading volume).
4 Major exchanges (Binance, Bybit, OKX) are already online, providing good trading depth.
Risk Warning:
1 The DEX main pool TVL is only $3.66 million, which is extremely low compared to a $642M market cap.
2 Trading at the level of $100,000 may incur a slippage of 15-25%.
3 Reliance on CEX liquidity results in a poor DEX trading experience.

XPIN
ca:0xd955c9ba56fb1ab30e34766e252a97ccce3d31a6
1 TVL/Volume ratio: $1.44M TVL vs $19.07M 24h Vol = 7.5% (liquidity is low relative to trading volume).
2 TVL/Market Cap ratio: $1.44M / $51.59M = 2.79% (seriously insufficient, industry standard >10%).
3 DEX vs CEX: DEX daily trading volume $19.07M vs total trading volume $49.87M = 38.2% (CEX dominant).
Risk Warning:
1 The project party controls 39.22% of the supply through Gnosis Safe multisig, regularly releasing allocated tokens (20 million each time) in the past 30 days, with no market sell-off detected.
2 84.3% of the tokens are locked, with the next major unlocking in January 2026 (2.29 billion tokens), but in March 2026, there will be simultaneous releases from the team and investors (190 million tokens released monthly), posing the highest risk period.
3 Main liquidity is in the PancakeSwap V3 XPIN/USDT pool (TVL $1.44 million), but the TVL only accounts for 2.79% of the market cap, with liquidity severely lacking and high slippage risk for large transactions.
4 The price surged 56.96% in the past 7 days, but negative public opinion and low community enthusiasm raise doubts about the project's credibility.

RAVE
ca:0x97693439ea2f0ecdeb9135881e49f354656a911c
1 As of 2025-12-22, a total of 30,106 transactions have been made.
2 The trading volume in the past 24 hours was approximately $86 million, mainly through DEXs like Dag Swap.
3 Small transfers are frequent (single transfer of 124-299 RAVE), indicating active trading activity.
Risk Warning:
1 The owner's address holds 80% of the supply, giving them market manipulation capability.
2 The top 10 holders control 97% of the tokens, with only 3% in circulation.
3 There is a risk of large-scale sell-offs or coordinated manipulation.

The new project, without exception, has all fallen to pieces. This is your reason to short.
Do not feel any guilt; shorting garbage coins is the right path!

Since the 2010s, casually hitting one's wife has become almost impossible in the garlic district.
The reason is simple: you can't afford it.
Since the 2010s, the cost of marrying has started to rise.
A house is always a must. A car has also become a semi-necessity. The bride price has started to increase.
With the economy running at high speed, the money earned has begun to increase, and naturally, marriage has become the biggest expense in life.
In 2015, it was only five years.
The house requirement is that it must be in the urban area, and the minimum cannot be lower than a small building in a county.
A car under 100,000 is quite embarrassing.
The bride price is over 100,000, some even over 150,000.
The income requirements for men are excessively high.
Marriage has become a luxury in life.
In 2020, it was another five years.
The house must be in the urban area, and a villa is best.
A bride price lower than 200,000 hurts feelings, and a car that is not a new energy vehicle starts at 200,000, which is too humiliating.
What? You don't have a salary of 300,000?
Get lost!
This is the wife bought by emptying the wallet. The in-laws treat her like a goddess, and it is no problem for them to eat, drink, and relieve themselves on the kang. Men are just devoted servants + tools, living like pure slaves.
All just to pass on the family line.
You want to try it?
What does it mean for both the chicken to fly and the egg to break? What does it mean to lose both people and money? What does it mean to be in the eighteen layers of hell?
Are you tired of living?

The secondary quantitative trading in the cryptocurrency market is no longer feasible; there are no retail investors left.
Apart from BTC and ETH, which still have volume, the rest are just ghosts playing.
This situation won't last long; after the next needle is inserted, the market will start to rise.
Suggestion: gradually accumulate Aster, buy and hold. Buy BNB and heavily invest.

Don't worry, the yen's interest rate hike has only resulted in solitude.
The market initially expected the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, which would bring some hawkish signals and support a stronger yen, but Governor Ueda was relatively cautious at the press conference, not clearly committing to a rapid further hike, instead emphasizing that real interest rates remain at extremely low levels (in negative territory), which led the market to interpret that monetary policy remains relatively loose.
In terms of actual data:
· Japan's core inflation (excluding fresh food) has recently remained around 3.0%, indeed higher than the BOJ's 2% target.
· After the nominal rate of 0.75%, the real interest rate is about -2.25%.
· The target range for the U.S. federal funds rate is currently 3.5%-3.75% (effective rate around 3.64%), inflation has fallen to 2.7%, and the real interest rate is positively around 0.8%-1.0%.
· The actual interest rate differential between the two countries is indeed around 3 percentage points, which still makes carry trade (arbitrage trading) very attractive: borrowing low-interest yen to invest in high-yield dollar assets.
After the rate hike, USD/JPY rose instead of falling, quickly climbing from around 155 to the 157.7-157.8 level (once touching around 157.66), precisely because the market feels that the BOJ is "out of ammunition", the future rate hike path is uncertain, and capital outflow pressure is increasing, leading to a resurgence of carry trade.
Regarding the "550 billion protection fee" and geopolitical constraints, this statement occasionally circulates online, but in reality, it is the "Host Nation Support" under the Japan-U.S. security alliance, where Japan bears part of the costs for U.S. troops stationed in Japan (base maintenance, labor, etc.), amounting to about 200 billion yen (approximately 1.3-1.5 billion USD), far from 550 billion (which may be a misunderstanding or exaggeration). Japan does rely on the Japan-U.S. alliance, and under the current geopolitical environment (including tensions in East Asia), the likelihood of independently selling U.S. Treasuries to intervene in the exchange rate is low—this would affect the stability of the U.S. Treasury market and may also trigger U.S. dissatisfaction. The speculation about selling U.S. Treasuries during the previous Thanksgiving holiday did not materialize either. Overall, this interest rate hike is viewed by the market as a "dovish hike," alleviating concerns about further tightening from the BOJ, and carry trade is making a comeback. In the short term, USD/JPY still faces upward pressure; if U.S. data continues to support the dollar (or the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates), 160 is not impossible. But also be aware of the risks: if global risk appetite reverses, or if the BOJ unexpectedly turns hawkish in the future, the exchange rate may quickly adjust.

The reason for the sudden surge in BTC.
The core CPI reported a value lower than in 2021.
Secondary inflation is gone, and now it's a narrative of easing inflation.
Good days are coming.
The narrative of Japan's interest rate hike has also ended early.
Heavy!

Publicly invest in Aster, please let me cross to the other side. The first purchase, buy in.
When everyone is bearish, it is the best buying sentiment signal.
Sentiment does not work too effectively for spot trading.
Follow freely, profits and losses are self-responsible.