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When the government is shut down, Bitcoin did not fall but rose instead. The reasons are not just one but several factors coming together. Let me explain it to you in simple terms: First of all, whether Bitcoin rises or falls is greatly related to its own market conditions. For example, during the government shutdown in 2013, it happened to be a good market period (bull market) with strong demand, and it directly rose by 14%. However, during the 2018 shutdown, the market was bad (bear market), and it fell by 6%. Now in 2025, it is like 2013—on one hand, Bitcoin tends to rise in the fourth quarter every year, and on the other hand, if you look at the blockchain, the number of people holding more than 100 Bitcoins is increasing, setting new records. These people are holding for the long term and are still buying at low prices, so the price naturally has support. Moreover, everyone believes that the U.S. central bank (the Federal Reserve) will loosen the monetary policy (cut interest rates). The futures market is guessing that the probability of loosening in October is almost 100%. Once they loosen, funds will flow into Bitcoin, which carries some risk but has the potential to earn. Additionally, when the government shuts down, many important economic data cannot be released. For example, the employment report that was supposed to be released on October 6 is gone. The U.S. central bank sets its policy based on these data, and now that there is no data, traders are more willing to bet that they will definitely loosen monetary policy—after all, without data as support, the central bank might be more cautious about injecting money. Once this idea comes out, some money shifts from traditional assets like stocks and bonds to Bitcoin, as many people consider it 'digital gold' and believe it can withstand some risks. Another key point: The department that regulates cryptocurrencies (SEC) has less than 10% of its staff working during the shutdown, and all previous investigations into exchanges and approvals for Bitcoin ETFs have been put on hold. Previously, this department was strict, and the market was always nervous. Now that no one is monitoring, worries have eased; moreover, in September, this department had already relaxed the listing requirements for Bitcoin funds, and everyone was mentally prepared. Even if they can't approve it now, it hasn't significantly affected confidence. Furthermore, the government shutdown has made people feel that U.S. politics is a bit 'unreliable,' and many have begun to doubt the reliability of dollar assets. Bitcoin is not tied to any country and cannot be regulated, making it an alternative in such times. Although gold has also risen (surpassing $3900 per ounce), Bitcoin is more flexible and has topics like 'halving' and 'large institutions buying more' to hype, making it even more attractive, causing more money to shift from traditional assets. Of course, another reason is that it previously fell too sharply: in mid-September, Bitcoin dropped below $110,000, which was already considered 'oversold,' and the subsequent rebound is just a correction. Additionally, 64% of people talking about Bitcoin online believe it will rise, which is more than since July, and when retail investors are optimistic, it can push prices up. However, I must remind you that this upward trend is not stable: if the shutdown lasts more than 10 days, based on previous situations, the probability of a drop increases. If it drags on too long, people's confidence will diminish; when the department regulating cryptocurrencies resumes work, the backlog of investigations and approvals may all come out at once, especially for those non-compliant exchanges, and Bitcoin could drop as a result. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve does not loosen as much as everyone expects, or if the economic data turns out to be good after the shutdown ends, Bitcoin may also drop back. In summary, this rise in Bitcoin is due to 'a good market situation,' 'everyone betting on loosening,' and 'money shifting from traditional assets' coming together. This also indicates that the Bitcoin market is different from stocks and bonds; it cannot be viewed with old thinking. One must understand when the market conditions are good, how people view it, and where the money is flowing, as these are more useful than blindly guessing prices. #U.S. government shutdown #October crypto market $BTC

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