Moyu 摸鱼局长

Ethereum (ETH) Phase Correction Deep Analysis: Bullish Defense and Trend Reconstruction

Ethereum (ETH) has recently entered a period of intense adjustment after reaching a phase high of $3,230. As of now, the price has fallen to around $2,290, with a monthly decline exceeding 20%. This level of pullback reflects a short-term tightening of market liquidity and a concentrated release of sentiment.

From a macro and technical perspective, the following three signals are worth paying attention to:

1. Price Behavior and Technical Level Test
The current price is at the upper boundary of the oscillation center since the second half of 2025, specifically in the range of $2,200 - $2,300. This range is not only a psychological barrier but also a densely traded area for bulls. If the weekly level cannot stabilize effectively, short-covering may push the price towards the key support at $2,100.

2. Chip Distribution and On-chain Dynamics
Although the secondary market price is under pressure, the total value locked (TVL) in the Layer 2 ecosystem has not experienced a proportionate cliff-like decline, indicating that real demand at the application layer on-chain still exists. However, the net inflow of ETH into exchanges has recently increased, suggesting that profit-taking or risk-averse sentiment still dominates in the short term, and selling pressure has not been completely cleared.

3. Suppression from External Environment
Recently, the net inflow rate of Ethereum spot ETFs has slowed down, and institutional willingness to increase holdings above $3,000 has significantly weakened. In the context of unclear macro policy expectations, ETH shows a higher volatility sensitivity than BTC, which is a typical characteristic in a market dominated by existing games.

Market Outlook:
In the short term, ETH lacks the fundamental momentum for independent surges, and the market is likely to enter a consolidation phase lasting several weeks. Caution is advised for panic selling after losing the $2,200 level.

💡 My Strategy:
Currently in a trend repair period rather than a purely rapid rebound market. Before volatility returns to normal levels, maintaining observation positions and focusing on the daily net inflow data of spot ETFs is more valuable than frequent trading.

$ETH

#ETH #以太坊 #加密货币 #宏观分析 #区块链

【New Coin Review】Did ZAMA Open with a “Price Drop”? Let's Discuss the Real Market Situation of the FHE Leader

ZAMA finally launched tonight. As the “Hope of the Entire Village” in the FHE (Fully Homomorphic Encryption) sector, this opening is indeed a bit surprising.
Many people are asking: With a public offering price of $0.05, how did it drop to $0.03 right away? Is that it?

I watched the market for several hours and would like to share my thoughts:

1️⃣ Typical “Profit-taking Panic”
Although the public offering clearing price is $0.05, let's not forget that there were earlier chips at an even lower cost. Coupled with the recent volatile market sentiment (especially with the BTC correction), many funds that FOMO’d in during the auction phase saw the opening underperforming expectations and their first reaction was to “run.”
The result is: Bulls haven't entered yet, and profit-taking and panic-selling have clashed first. Currently, the price is oscillating between $0.031 - $0.034, indicating that the public offering price of $0.05 has become a strong resistance level in the short term.

2️⃣ FHE Narrative vs. Market Liquidity
ZAMA's technical fundamentals are solid, with a TVL (Total Value Shielded) of $120 million, which is indeed a real asset. But the current issue is insufficient liquidity.
CEXs (like Binance, OKX, etc.) are all listed, but market makers are clearly “letting the bullets fly for a while.” The current candlestick pattern shows retail investors cutting each other down, while large institutional buy orders have yet to be seen.

3️⃣ Should You Bottom Fish?
If you are coming in with the mindset of a “100x coin,” the probability of getting buried now is high.
However, if you believe that FHE is the core narrative of the next cycle (similar to the last round of ZK), then positions below the public offering price by 30%-40% are actually a good observation zone.

💡 My Strategy:
No Catching Falling Knives: The volatility is too high right after the opening, so don't place left-side buy orders.
Watch $0.035: If this position can hold for 24 hours without breaking new lows, it indicates sufficient handover.
Long-term Logic: For technical coins like this, the typical trend is “High Open Low Close -> Long Washout -> Value Return.” Don’t rush to go all in; it’s better to take it in batches.

In summary: Good project, bad start. This is good for long-term holders, but a disaster for short-term gamblers.

$ZAMA

#ZAMA #Crypto #FHE #新币挖掘 #交易心得

The market logic reasoning after BTC broke below $80,000.

This is not a simple pullback; from the market structure, the nature of the market has changed. The current decline is mainly driven by two core variables:

1. Reversal of institutional funds
ETF fund flows are the most objective indicators. In January, the net outflow of spot ETFs exceeded $1.6 billion, which means that the core momentum supporting last year's rise (institutional passive buying) is waning and even turning into selling pressure. When the largest buyers begin to withdraw, the support from below will naturally be insufficient.

2. Key support turns into strong resistance
$80,000 is not only a psychological barrier but also a concentrated area of chips over the past few months. A valid break below this level means that a large number of long positions are trapped, and this position will turn from strong support to strong resistance thereafter. Any subsequent rebound without volume that touches the $80k-$82k range is likely to face selling pressure from those looking to exit their positions.

Technical situation:
The current price is hovering around $76k-$78k. Although the RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone (value 20-30), there is a technical need for correction, but do not equate "oversold" with "buy signal." In the early stages of a bearish trend, indicator stagnation is the norm.

Future market reasoning:
If the market cannot quickly reclaim $80,000 within the next 48 hours, it will look for the next sufficiently liquid support level. From a weekly perspective, the next substantive support line is at $73,500 - $74,000.

Strategic perspective:
The current risk-reward ratio is not favorable for bottom-fishing on the left side. For spot holders, the cost of stop-loss or hedging is already high; for swing traders, observing the rebound strength at $80k is safer than blindly betting on a rebound.

Once a trend is formed, it often lasts longer than expected. Respect the market.

$BTC

#Crypto #行情分析

The Underrated Traffic Blue Ocean: Why Now is the Best Time to Join Binance Square?

Yesterday, I received an activity incentive of 1 BNB at #BinanceSquare, and the feedback was indeed very direct. After using it intensively for a while, I整理ed the core differences between the Square and X (Twitter) (see the image below), sharing it with friends who are looking for breakthroughs in the crypto field.

Why is it worth joining now?

1. Precise traffic pool: Compared to the general financial attributes of X, almost 100% of the users in the Square are active Crypto traders.

2. Algorithm's friendliness to newcomers: The current recommendation algorithm of the Square values content quality more than follower count. Practical tests have found that high-quality content has a much higher growth and interaction rate in the Square than in X.

3. Integrated toolchain:

- Allows for the publication of super long articles, suitable for in-depth research reports and market breakdowns.

- Content can be directly tagged with currency labels, making it easy for readers to view real-time market conditions.

- Live streaming supports real-time translation, greatly lowering the barriers for content overseas and cross-language communication.

- Extremely short monetization path: Backed by the Binance ecosystem, the platform often has various creative incentive programs, allowing quality authors to receive direct token rewards.

Personal suggestion: If you are good at in-depth project research reports or macroeconomic breakdowns, Binance Square is currently in a content dividend period. It is recommended to maintain a high frequency of quality posts and make full use of the live room red packets and interaction features to increase user stickiness.

I recommend a few popular live rooms for everyone: Chenbo, Frog Prince, Chunting, Zero, Badan. (Helping everyone to easily gain followers~)

Interested friends can occupy a position early to seize this wave of creative dividends.

$BNB $PAXG $XAG

Silver price breaks $100: This is not just a price increase, but a resource scramble

Recently, silver prices have gone completely crazy. This year, they have surged by 110%, directly crossing the $100 mark. Previously, people thought it was the "little follower" of gold, but now it has become the main character, even being called the "white oil" of the new energy era.

Why has silver suddenly become so expensive?

The fundamental reason is: the world cannot do without it anymore. Today's silver is no longer just for jewelry; it has become a necessity for photovoltaic panels and AI servers. Especially with the current solar panels, the more advanced the technology, the more silver is needed. Demand has surged, but global silver stocks have fallen to a ten-year low. With less supply and more buyers, the price naturally cannot be suppressed.

Who is behind the "pushing and prodding"?

In addition to supply-demand imbalance, the real driving force is the resource game between major powers. Most of the world's silver is in South America (such as Peru and Mexico). China previously established good relations with South America by building roads and ports, locking in resources. Seeing itself lagging in the new energy race, the U.S. has started to frequently "stir things up" in South America, trying to use political pressure and supply chain interference to block resource exports. The capital market fears instability; when this “food shortage” risk emerges, various funds immediately rush to buy silver, pushing the price to the sky.

What should we watch for after $100?

The silver price is too high, putting immense pressure on downstream manufacturers of photovoltaic panels, which are even on the brink of operating at a loss. This will force companies to develop new technologies, such as using copper instead of silver.

In summary: looking at the current silver market, analyzing K-line charts is no longer useful; we need to pay attention to the situation in South America and innovations in photovoltaic technology. $100 is a threshold that reflects everyone’s anxiety about resources.

For us as investors, although the fundamentals are very strong, we must also guard against severe pullbacks that may come after technological breakthroughs or easing of tensions. $XAG

Robot Track Overview: A Comparison of the Financing Background and Participation Thresholds of 6 Popular Projects

2026 is indeed a turning point for the robot track as it transitions from concept validation to asset realization. Recently, I reviewed this area and found that top institutions have already established very vertical layouts.

To facilitate your research, I have created a comparison chart of the 6 most popular projects, focusing on core positioning and participation opportunities:

1. Key Focus:

OpenMind AGI, as the lead investor from Pantera, is developing a foundational robotic operating system. Currently, the most noteworthy aspect is its native token ROBO's upcoming sale (deadline: 2.2), offering a 0.5% stake at a valuation of $400 million on the Kaito platform. Although this valuation is relatively high within the industry, considering its TGE rhythm and the endorsement from the Fabric Foundation, it is a strong indicator.

2. Technical Pathways:

- Data Acquisition: PrismaX and Axis are respectively working on remote operation and simulation training. The core issue for the scalability of robots lies in data costs, and these two projects are addressing this shortcoming.

- Assetization and Economic Layer: XMAQUINA is following a robot investment DAO path (recently completed public sale, valuation around $60M), while Konnex focuses on on-chain economic settlements.

3. How to Participate:

In addition to OpenMind's upcoming sale, PrismaX and Konnex currently have a points system that allows for direct registration for ambush. For BitRobot and Axis, which are still in testing phases, it is advisable to first join Discord to gain a position for observation.

A Thought:

The robot track is currently in a window period transitioning from concept to standard establishment. Projects like OpenMind that aim to establish standards have the highest ceilings, while data-focused projects like PrismaX are seeing the fastest realization.

This mid-year to the second half of the year may witness a concentrated outbreak of TGE, making it a good point for research and layout.

Note: Information is compiled from public channels and should not be considered as investment advice.

Many public chains are still obsessed with the TPS competition, but @Vanarchain seems to have seen through the real barriers to the widespread adoption of Web3 — the lack of a smooth transition bridge from the real world. The team's experience in gaming and branding (such as Virtua and VGN) is not just an endorsement, but the core logic of how they can capture the 'next 3 billion users'.

I also appreciate Vanar's strategy of combining AI with a green ecosystem. For many traditional big brands looking to enter Web3, environmental compliance and AI empowerment are necessities, not options. This Layer 1 approach tailored for enterprise and consumer applications is much more pragmatic than simple technology stacking. In the current market environment, there are not many projects that can bridge entertainment, the metaverse, and provide grounded brand solutions. This differentiated competitive path gives $VANRY unique long-term value. Not following the trend, but focusing on building real application scenarios is what L1 should look like. #vanar

Everyone is asking: How to play with crypto in 2026? Just look at what the five major institutions say.

Recently, I went through the 2026 outlook reports from Coinbase, a16z, Grayscale, Galaxy, and Bitwise, extracting a comparative table with 10 dimensions (attached image). After reading it, you basically know what to expect this year.

❚ A few points that I personally find most valuable:
1. Institutional money coming in is a sure thing—ETFs are about to explode, legislation will be pushed, and those big Ivy League funds will eventually have to allocate.

2. Stablecoins and RWA are basically not being disparaged by anyone: one aims to overturn traditional payments, and the other is transforming from a toy into a trillion-dollar business, appealing through both bull and bear markets.

3. The biggest divergence is AI×Crypto: a16z is going all in, advocating for the agent economy, micropayments, and nested reasoning to explode; others may only mention it briefly as a side dish.

4. The debate over Bitcoin's trajectory next year is fierce: Grayscale and Bitwise believe it could reach new highs in the first half of the year, while Galaxy pours cold water on it, saying it will likely fluctuate between 70k-150k and may even dip first.

5. Privacy, prediction markets, and DeFi also have highlights, but they haven't reached a core level that everyone is shouting about.

❚ This is what I think:
In the first half of the year, listen to Galaxy and avoid getting too eager to chase highs;
In the mid-term, follow Grayscale and Bitwise to ride the institutional wave and wait for funds to push prices up;
Long-term, I still trust a16z the most; I believe significant developments will eventually emerge in AI agents and ZK.

Currently, I am gradually adjusting my positions, increasing the ratio of RWA and stablecoins a bit (mainly some tokenized government bonds and compliant stablecoins, which can yield some returns while lying low), leaving a bit of base for AI-related ecological coins, while keeping my main assets in BTC, ETH, and BNB steady; in my free time, I casually engage in prediction markets for some extra gains.

What do you all think after looking at the table? Feel free to share your thoughts, as 2026 might be a watershed moment.

2026 Airdrop Interaction 'Operation Map': 69 Golden Shovels, One Chart to Understand It All 🗺️

I created a 2026 Airdrop Interaction 'Operation Map'.

Focus on just two key points:

1. Which major hot sector does it belong to? (AI/DeFi/RWA)

2. How exactly to earn? (Volume farming/Nodes/Interactions)

💡 Strategy Tip: Whether it's a hot or niche sector, there's big potential. The key is finding the right path for you:

🔹 Capital-driven ➡️ Maximize capital efficiency

🔹 Zero-cost farming ➡️ Maximize effort

🔹 Game theory-driven ➡️ Maximize insight

👇 The 'Operation Map' is below. Recommended to save. Pick your赛道 and stay consistent—results will follow!

One chart tracking 17 Perp-DEX projects yet to launch tokens in 2026

Recently, Lighter's airdrop has reignited interest in the Perp sector. I've summarized the current status of 17 Perp-DEX projects that haven't yet TGE'd (with chart attached), covering major ecosystems including Arbitrum, Starknet, Solana, Hyperliquid ecosystem, ZkSync, Sui, and Aptos.

Personally, I believe Perps will still be a core narrative in the 2026 crypto landscape, but the risk of being exploited remains high—just like what happened with L2s back then.

With so many projects, my strategy is simple: for those nearing completion like Backpack and EdgeX, just patiently wait for points and airdrops.

For others still in early to mid-stages, based on your budget, focus on interacting with Nado and Variational, and casually use StandX, GRVT, etc., for hedging and刷 (刷 means 'to farm' or 'to interact repeatedly'—common in crypto communities), which should offer the best cost-efficiency.

Which projects are you planning to farm? Let's discuss in the comments👇