🚨POLYGON SURGES AS LEADING PAYMENTS SETTLEMENT LAYER IN Q4
Polygon emerged as the top settlement layer for payments in Q4, with transaction volume jumping 399% YoY to $3.57B, driven by accelerating adoption from payment cards and enterprises.
#MicroStrategy has been one of #Bitcoin’s biggest believers for years, buying $BTC aggressively and holding through every cycle. Recently, though, their Bitcoin position slipped into the red on paper. That simply means Bitcoin’s current price is lower than their average buying price.
So, is this a red flag? Not necessarily.
This isn’t MicroStrategy panic-selling or backing away from Bitcoin. Nothing has changed operationally. The company still holds its BTC, and the losses are unrealized as they only become real if Bitcoin is sold, which they haven’t done. In past cycles, MicroStrategy has gone underwater before and stayed committed, only to see those losses flip back into profit during the next rally.
What this does signal is market stress. When even long-term holders like MicroStrategy are temporarily down, it usually means Bitcoin is in a cooling or consolidation phase. Historically, these moments often come closer to market bottoms than tops.
For short-term traders, it’s a warning to stay cautious. Volatility can stay high, and prices can dip further. But for long-term investors, this could be an opportunity. It could be a reminder that Bitcoin’s biggest conviction buyers are still holding, even when the numbers turn red.
In crypto, red doesn’t always mean danger. Sometimes, it just means patience is being tested.
The $BTC market faced another volatile week.The late-week sell-off triggered a significant wave of liquidations, with nearly $2B in long positions wiped out across Thursday and Friday.
Market sentiment remained firmly risk-off, reflected in falling funding rates. Notably, even major assets briefly traded with negative funding, highlighting reduced risk appetite across derivatives markets.
• Hyperliquid reported a surge in open interest linked to increased demand for commodity exposure. HIP-3 OI reached a new all-time high of $790M.
• Ethereum announced the formation of a Post-Quantum (PQ) team, focused on developing long-term strategies to protect the network against future quantum computing risks.
• Pendle introduced its Algorithmic Incentive Model (AIM), adjusting emissions allocation based on each pool’s contribution, measured by swap fees and TVL.
Bitcoin is facing rejection from the resistance trendline and is currently rebounding from a key horizontal demand zone. The Ichimoku Cloud is acting as a resistance barrier.
A breakout above the resistance trendline could trigger an upward rally, while a breakdown below the demand zone may lead to further market correction.
#Bitcoin Enters a Cycle Cooldown Phase as Extreme Signals Fade
On-chain cycle indicators suggest BTC$BTC is moving into a cooling phase rather than a full capitulation. Despite price weakness from recent highs, extreme cycle conditions remain limited, indicating the market is releasing excess rather than undergoing a structural reset.
The Bitcoin Cycle Extreme Oscillator shows that recent drawdowns were not accompanied by persistent extreme spikes. Historically, cycle tops are marked by clustered and sustained extreme readings, reflecting synchronized speculative excess. In contrast, recent signals appeared briefly and faded quickly, pointing to localized profit-taking instead of broad cycle exhaustion. The declining 30-day average further supports gradual pressure release.
This view is reinforced by the Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index, which currently sits near the mid-range (~28–30%), well below levels associated with euphoric bull extremes. Bull extreme signals have weakened since the Q3 peak, while bear extremes are present but remain scattered rather than concentrated. Volatility percentile has risen from compressed levels, suggesting redistribution rather than panic-driven deleveraging.
From a valuation perspective, the Bubble vs Crash Market Structure shows Bitcoin trading below its adjusted MVRV baseline, but not in deep undervaluation territory. Previous crash regimes required sustained MVRV breakdowns accompanied by aggressive downside acceleration, which is not yet evident.
Overall, on-chain data points to a market cooling without systemic stress. Cycle momentum has weakened, but the lack of synchronized extreme signals suggests Bitcoin remains in a transitional macro phase rather than a confirmed bear market reset.