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$BTC $UB

ETF INVESTORS ARE LOSING MONEY ON BITCOIN

This chart shows the cumulative net inflows (USD) from BTC ETFs the drawdown from ETFs since the ATH, the BTC price, and the average cost (Realized Price) of ETFs.
Through this chart we can see what institutional money did what the price did, who is losing money and who is making a profit.
After the ETF approval we first experienced a buy on news, sell on reality situation. We witnessed a sharp rise in the Bitcoin price after the ETF approval. Simultaneously ETF inflows accelerated. However, because the price rose so quickly a significant portion of short term ETF investors ended up paying high costs. Therefore, we see that the first major ETF drawdown occurred and the red area on the chart is frequently deepening. In other words ETFs pushed the price up and also increased volatility.
Late 2024 early 2025 cumulative ETF inflows continue to increase, price is volatile, and ETF realized is steadily rising. This means ETFs aren't selling; on the contrary, they're increasing the average
By 2025, the price is approaching new highs. The ETF realized price is seen to be around the 75-80K range. As long as the price remains above this, ETFs will continue to be in net profit. This range will now act as macro support. The price may encounter buyers whenever it reaches this region. Institutional investors will not easily accept prices below this
In the current chart, the price is experiencing a sharp pullback. The ETF drawdown has reached historical lows. However, it's important to note that cumulative ETF inflows are not collapsing. In other words, there is no large scale ETF outflow. Most ETF investors are currently at a loss or in the cost zone. Despite this, they are not panic selling. Because they know this cycle and continue to accumulate BTC. Every fall will be followed by a rise. So, what happen nexts?
If the price permanently falls below the ETF realized price, then real outflows from ETFs will begin. At that point, this chart will generate a bearish signal, which is my expectation in the short-to-medium term.

The support level for gold is $4670. I see this dip as a buying opportunity and I don't think the decline will deepen further. It's an asset with high demand. Once the correction is over, I expect it to reach $6500 in the medium term. $XAU

Silver has fallen to the level I expected. A drop to $86 is possible. If it closes below that daily, the final stop will be $74. I don't think it will stay below this support for very long. #XAGUSD #xag #Silver $XAG

Whales Silently Awaiting Their Moment

A common behavior is clearly visible in the chart. When the Whale Ratio rises, the price reaction occurs in three stages. In the first stage, the price remains strong. Then, as the Whale Ratio peaks, the price generally rises or moves sideways. This is because the selling pressure has not yet been priced in.

In the second stage, selling pressure begins from the peak. If the Whale Ratio remains high, the price enters a sharp correction. This stage usually involves a local top formation.

In the third stage, increased volatility is observed. There are sudden price pullbacks. Danger begins for long positions. The higher and more persistent the Whale Ratio, the sharper the price falls after peaking.

When the Whale Ratio is at its lowest levels, selling pressure is minimized. The price either remains in sideways accumulation or begins an upward trend.

Especially when the Whale Ratio bottoms out, the price lingers sideways for a short time. Then an upward breakout occurs. A low Whale Ratio always prepares the ground for an uptrend.

In light of this information, when we examine the current state of the chart, we see that the Whale Ratio is neither at an extreme high nor at a low point.

We see that the Whale Ratio is above the SMA(100) but within a controllable range. This means that whales are now preferring gradual selling instead of aggressive selling. Therefore, the price is moving horizontally and downwards instead of in full accumulation mode.

With this Whale Ratio level, the probability of a sharp dump is low, but the probability of a rise is also low. In other words, rises will remain as reaction rallies, while falls will follow a horizontal trend. For this pattern to change, the Whale Ratio needs to experience a sharp rise or fall. This doesn't seem very likely at the moment, given the presence of institutional investors.

The determining factor will be which direction the Whale Ratio breaks from here. $BTC

Ethereum has ended its intermediate uptrend and the main direction continues downwards. I think this decline will continue down to $1700. Because of the $ETH ETF approval, the declines are not sharp. They are mostly continuing as a horizontal decline. Therefore, I think there will be a gradual decline for #ETH.

#Ethereum Supports:
$2430
$2120
$1762

Don't Be Deceived by the Upcoming XRP Rise

The main logic of this chart is to show how much Exchange Supply Share (ESS) XRP is held on exchanges. If ESS rises, it means XRP is entering the exchange;
if ESS falls, it means XRP is leaving the exchange. The chart shows an inverse correlation between ESS and price.

Specifically, between February and April 2025, ESS showed a steady decline. The price initially moved sideways, then broke sharply upwards. The withdrawal of supply from the exchange caused a delayed price reaction.

Between July and September 2025, conversely, ESS rose. While the price showed high volatility, a peak formation was followed by a decline.

October 2025 is very critical. Following a sharp drop in ESS, the price experienced a sharp dump. It's important to interpret the ESS drop not as a panic sell-off, but as a simultaneous liquidity drain along with the price drop.

Between November and December 2025, the lack of volume in the market also affected XRP. ESS remained at very low levels, moving sideways, and the price slowly declined.

Currently, the ESS is in a bottoming zone, and the SMA(30), SMA(50), and SMA(100) are above the price. This means the supply side is now stable, with the price around $1.9. The price is still reacting weakly to the ESS. This pattern has generally caused the price to push upwards with a delay in the past. When the ESS stayed at a bottom for 2-4 weeks, the price first experienced a rebound, then a trend began. We are currently at the beginning of the same phase, but unlike the past, there is no volume confirmation. Therefore, the rise may remain a rebound. $XRP

I've been saying for months that Bitcoin has entered a bear market. The target was $98K, a Quasimodo level. Liquidity was taken from there, and it continues its main downtrend. #BTC
#bitcoin Support levels in order:
$81500
$72750
$64800

The bottom of the $BTC bear market could be around $50K, but a wick down to $41K is possible.

Bitcoin dominance continues its upward trend. We are seeing this trend during the bear season.

Last week, I mentioned that the $97950 resistance level could be the peak for Bitcoin and initiate a decline. And that's exactly what happened. Throughout 2025, the money flowing out of Bitcoin didn't flow into altcoins. I believe this will continue until the rise in gold and silver ends.

How Will Japan's Interest Rate Decision Affect Bitcoin?

We are in one of the most critical weeks for Bitcoin. Because Japan's interest rate decision will be announced on January 23rd. If an interest rate hike as expected occurs, Bitcoin may face selling pressure.

I have frequently stated that the $98K resistance level is important for the Bitcoin price. Because if there is a reversal from this resistance, the price will enter a downward trend without forming a new peak. Indeed, the price reversed from the $97950 level. What we need to pay attention to now is the $88450 trend. If the $BTC price operates below this trend, I will consider the main downtrend to have begun. This decline may continue horizontally-downwards to the $69K support level, which I have indicated with the blue horizontal line on the chart.

If there is an upward reversal from this trend, the price will go to the $102K-$110K range for the last time and continue into the bear market from there. The bottom of the bear market could be the $49K-$52K support level, which I have marked with the blue rising trend line on the chart, which has been in place since 2018. Hold on tight, the fall is coming. $BTC

Could Ethereum Be on the Way to a Collapse?

The Binance Price & Volume chart shows a macroeconomic structure that is still in a horizontal trend at its peak. While higher lows have been maintained since the 2020 lows, there has been no new peak formation in recent months. With the recent move, there has been a sharp rejection from the $4.8K region, and the price has now retreated to around $2.9K. The EMA(7), EMA(14), and EMA(30) structures signal a short-term correction. Historically, these types of pullbacks create a new accumulation zone without breaking the main trend.

On the Spot Taker CVD (90-day) chart, Taker Sell Dominant (red) bars are prominent in the current region. However, these red periods have often been seen in bottom or pre-bottom regions in the past. Particularly in the examples of 2021, 2023, and 2024, while Taker sales increased, the price remained horizontal for a while before breaking upwards. There are aggressive sellers now, but these sales are not yet pushing the price below a new major low. Therefore, it is highly likely that we are in a pre-bottom period.

Considering these two charts, I can say that the price is in an accumulation zone and a breakout is imminent.

Looking at historical similarities based on these two charts, after such periods, the price generally first moves horizontally and then makes a sharp downward breakout. In short, the Ethereum price may be in the final stretch before a collapse. $ETH

One of the most important charts for determining market direction is always the #Ethereum chart.

$ETH has been maintaining its horizontal-upward trend for weeks, while also holding onto its intermediate trend support. $2955 is a very important support. A close below this support would indicate that the trend support break is not a trap, and the main trend direction of decline would continue.

The liquidation at the falling trend resistance appears to have been taken, and the direction it should now go is towards the support levels below. #ETH One of the most important charts for determining market direction is always the #Ethereum chart.

$ETH has been maintaining its horizontal-upward trend for weeks, while also holding onto its intermediate trend support. $2955 is a very important support. A close below this support would indicate that the trend support break is not a trap, and the main trend direction of decline would continue.

The liquidation at the falling trend resistance appears to have been taken, and the direction it should now go is towards the support levels below. #ETH

We are in one of the most critical weeks for Bitcoin.

I've been sharing this formation for Bitcoin for perhaps months now, and I can say it's been working well.

I've frequently stated that the $98K resistance is important for the #bitcoin price. Because if there's a reversal from this resistance, the formation will be considered to have worked like Quasimodo. The price reversed downwards from $97950. What I need to pay attention to now is the $88450 trend. If the $BTC price works below this trend, I will consider the formation target to have been reached and the main downtrend to have begun.

If there's an upward reversal from this trend, the price will go to the $102K-$110K range one last time and continue into the bear market from there.

The Japanese interest rate announcement on Friday will clarify this situation. Therefore, I will update this analysis again on Friday. #BTC

Bull and Bear Cycles Have Changed
When the S2F Reversion sharply rises above the 1 level, it has generally indicated either a peak or the beginning of a long horizontal correction period. This is clearly seen in the 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2024 peaks.

Drops below 1 have historically been the best risk/reward zones.

In the current chart, the Reversion value is high but not at extreme peak levels. SMAs are sloping upwards, but volume is weakening as it rises. This structure generally means:
The uptrend continues, but there is a loss of momentum. The intermediate upward trend is not broken. In the short term, the price may exhibit horizontal and volatile increases with small corrections, as it does today.

Bitcoin is neither cheap nor excessively expensive right now. The uptrend continues in the short term, but in the big picture, the downward trend seems likely to continue after the rise.

This post-ETF cycle differs from previous cycles because,
unlike previous cycles, there is a continuous, time-spread demand from institutional investors for spot ETFs. Therefore, although S2F Reversion spikes more frequently, it cannot remain in the extremely negative zone for as long as in past cycles.

Currently, with the Halving, the daily BTC supply has decreased by 50%. Miner selling pressure has structurally decreased. ETFs, however, gain importance at this point because they create net demand exceeding the daily BTC production. For this reason, bear seasons may be more superficial for Bitcoin.

Between 2017-2021, Reversion reached levels of 2+. Afterwards, a 70-80% bear market occurred.

Between 2024-2025, Reversion fluctuated between 1-3. Despite this, the price peaked. Throughout 2025, it moved horizontally both during rises and falls. The price even dropped horizontally from $127 to $81K. There were no sharp crashes.

In the big picture, ETFs and Halving extended and softened the classic 4-year cycle. Therefore, instead of a sudden crash like in 2021, a volatile but upward trend extending into 2025–2026 seems more likely. $BTC

XRP Price Shows Positive Breakout Trend According to Funding Rates

In the chart, when the funding rate spikes sharply and becomes positive, the price either levels off or experiences a sharp pullback shortly afterward. This can be attributed to increased costs for long positions and a higher probability of a long squeeze. In the past, these spikes have acted as warnings of overheating, rather than signaling a continuation of the uptrend.

Another notable pattern in the chart is the periods when the funding rate spikes sharply negatively. Short positions increase, especially when the SMAs break sharply downwards. The market becomes overly pessimistic, and the price forms a bottom. Historically, sharp negative funding has led to short-term rebounds, meaning the price has bottomed out and then risen.

Currently, the chart shows: negative funding rate (around -0.00323), downward sloping SMA(30) and SMA(50), and a significant weighting of short positions on the funding side. This indicates that leverage in the market is heavily weighted towards short positions. There is no excessive optimism; this is a positive market behavior. Therefore, I think the likelihood of a sharp decline in the short term is weak; declines are more superficial and primarily serve to accumulate liquidity. In this environment, if Funding Rates turn positive, the price may react upwards.

In summary, on the XRP side, the funding data is not currently an obstacle to an uptrend; on the contrary, it presents a structure that prepares the ground for an upward movement after a consolidation. In other words, there is no signal of a major rally yet, but the possibility of an upward movement is stronger than a downward breakout. $XRP

Binance Ethereum Leverage Ratio and Price Relationship

A recurring pattern is observed in the chart. When the Leverage Ratio rises rapidly above the price, excessively leveraged long positions accumulate in the market. This creates fertile ground for liquidity hunting.
First, there is a sharp but short-lived price drop. Then, the price reacts strongly upwards. This cycle is clearly seen in the chart in February, April, September, and November 2025. It appears that the declines are for the purpose of clearing leverage.

Specifically, in April 2025, leverage increases, price falls, leverage decreases, and price rises strongly.

In October 2025, a sharp leverage spike and sudden dump are followed by a continuation of the trend.

According to this data, an increase in leverage is not the cause of the decline, but rather a trigger for it.

The current situation is very important. Because the Leverage Ratio is approximately 0.60, a historically quite high band. The price is trading below the Leverage Ratio. This combination has historically generated new upward waves following short-term wicks. Currently, leverage is increasing despite the price increase. This indicates that there is still a willingness to hold positions in the market.

In light of this data, we can say that the probability of an uptrend in the market is high.

However, a short-term liquidation cleanup may occur beforehand.

In the past, every dip when leverage was at these levels resulted in a 10-25% rise. If the same scenario occurs again, the price could quickly show sharp upward movements. $ETH

Binance Reserve Drop Highlights Price Ready for Uptrend

Historically, Binance reserve drops have always been accompanied by uptrends. With each reserve exit, the selling momentum has weakened. Historically, these periods have marked the beginning of strong medium- to long-term uptrends.

I calculated the price movements during reserve exits in the chart based on troughs and peaks, and an interesting picture emerged.

The first significant reserve exit occurred in early 2019. (The area I marked with the first bubble in the chart)
The price rose from $6,500 to $13,800, an increase of approximately 112.3%.

In March 2020 (after the Covid Crash), there was another large reserve exit from the exchange, and the reserve price fell below the reserve price. The price rose from $7,300 to $10,500,

an increase of approximately 43.8%.

The reserve increase from $9,000 to $64,000 at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021 represents a 611% rise.

The Bitcoin price, during the 2024-2025 period (ETF era), increased from approximately $78,000 to $127,000, a 62.8% rise.

According to this graph, every time the BTC reserve on Binance fell below the price, it experienced an increase ranging from 40% to 600%.

In the current situation shown in the graph, the exchange reserve is approximately 649K BTC, while the price is approximately $95,000.

The reserve is significantly below the price and trending downwards. Historically, considering the graph, this indicates that BTC is not being left on the exchange for sale, and the price is expected to continue rising. $BTC #MarketRebound #BTC100kNext?

Ethereum is showing signs of consolidation. I'm expecting an upward bounce before a big drop. $3324 and $3700 appear to be potential resistance levels. #ethereum $ETH

Bitcoin is moving within a formation. I expect the price to first go to the $102k-$110k range and then to the $72k-$57k range. #Bitcoin $BTC

Although Bitcoin dominance is trending downwards, the decline is unreliable due to the low volume. If the drop to 58.19% occurs as indicated on the chart, the #altcoin market might see a brief surge. $BTC