Proekt_73
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Мы в Twitter и др - @Proekt_73. Анализ крипторынка, новости, сделки с объяснением. Не даем финансовых рекомендаций, DYOR! Тупые комменты, "вангования" - бан
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P73 CryptoMarket Monitor shows today one of the most expressive signals of a potential low
P73 CryptoMarket Monitor shows today one of the most expressive signals of a potential low in the crypto market.
Our algorithm, which analyzes, let us remind you, the TOP-200 crypto assets by market capitalization through the lens of the P73 Trend & Target Dynamics indicator, just showed potential low marks on the daily TF for 51 assets among them at the opening of a new daily candle. Including BTC and ETH.
Our algorithm, which analyzes, let us remind you, the TOP-200 crypto assets by market capitalization through the lens of the P73 Trend & Target Dynamics indicator, just showed potential low marks on the daily TF for 51 assets among them at the opening of a new daily candle. Including BTC and ETH.
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Econometrics: Bitcoin ETF has been showing a decline in net demand for more than 100 consecutive days, which is a historic record of weakness.
According to #Econometrics, cumulative BTC reserves in spot ETFs have been falling for over 100 days without interruption. This is the longest downtrend in net demand for ETFs in the history of observations.
Interestingly, last week the first signs of recovery in inflows began to appear, but fresh macroeconomic turbulence this week quickly dampened this momentum. The market has again returned to a state of increased volatility, meaning inflows into ETFs are not yet becoming a sustainable driver.
All this confirms that the regime shift in demand that #BTC is waiting for to ensure recovery has not yet occurred.
According to #Econometrics, cumulative BTC reserves in spot ETFs have been falling for over 100 days without interruption. This is the longest downtrend in net demand for ETFs in the history of observations.
Interestingly, last week the first signs of recovery in inflows began to appear, but fresh macroeconomic turbulence this week quickly dampened this momentum. The market has again returned to a state of increased volatility, meaning inflows into ETFs are not yet becoming a sustainable driver.
All this confirms that the regime shift in demand that #BTC is waiting for to ensure recovery has not yet occurred.
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Glassnode: the BTC market has once again hit the zone where short-term holders are turning into sellers
Glassnode: the BTC market has once again hit the zone where short-term holders are turning into sellers.
Analysts at #Glassnode note that the recent attempt to break above the baseline cost of STH (short-term holders) at $98,400 has faltered due to pressure from holders with coin ages of 3-6 months. Their average entry price is around $112,600, and it is they who have begun to more actively realize losses, breaking the upward momentum. Proponents of the idea of a bear market are taking losses and exiting positions.
Analysts at #Glassnode note that the recent attempt to break above the baseline cost of STH (short-term holders) at $98,400 has faltered due to pressure from holders with coin ages of 3-6 months. Their average entry price is around $112,600, and it is they who have begun to more actively realize losses, breaking the upward momentum. Proponents of the idea of a bear market are taking losses and exiting positions.
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Analyst: BTC has currently soared above the rate of adoption - next is either a pause or a pullback to the "base."
Analyst: BTC has currently soared above the rate of adoption - next is either a pause or a pullback to the "base."
Analyst Timothy Peterson presents a simple idea: in the long run, #BTC cannot consistently grow faster than about 2 times the rate of network adoption. If the price accelerates more than that - it is always not a "new reality," but an overheating that the market will then compensate for either with a correction or a long range.
Analyst Timothy Peterson presents a simple idea: in the long run, #BTC cannot consistently grow faster than about 2 times the rate of network adoption. If the price accelerates more than that - it is always not a "new reality," but an overheating that the market will then compensate for either with a correction or a long range.
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A new block of macro data from the USA has been released, and so far the first reaction of the crypto market to it is negative.
A new block of macro data from the USA has been released, and so far the first reaction of the crypto market to it is negative. The reaction of BTC is on the screenshot.
What about the data? First of all, and this is a positive for the US economy - GDP has been revised upward, from 4.3% to 4.4%. Considering how often the topic of increasing recession risks in 2026 was raised in 2025, this is a clear positive for risky asset markets. The economy is not just 'holding on' - it is growing faster than the market is comfortable with.
What about the data? First of all, and this is a positive for the US economy - GDP has been revised upward, from 4.3% to 4.4%. Considering how often the topic of increasing recession risks in 2026 was raised in 2025, this is a clear positive for risky asset markets. The economy is not just 'holding on' - it is growing faster than the market is comfortable with.
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Our new indicator for subscribers will likely be available this week. Unless there are unforeseen circumstances with electricity, etc.
Let us remind you that at the beginning of January, a subscriber of our indicators asked us to think about an order block indicator.
Our result - strictly speaking according to technical analysis, is not quite about order blocks.
What will the new P73 Smart Liquidity Zones do? It is an indicator of supply/demand zones + a trend filter. Let us say right away that it determines trends exactly the same way as our flagship indicator P73 Trend & Target Dynamics. We do not abandon the author's logic of trend determination.
Let us remind you that at the beginning of January, a subscriber of our indicators asked us to think about an order block indicator.
Our result - strictly speaking according to technical analysis, is not quite about order blocks.
What will the new P73 Smart Liquidity Zones do? It is an indicator of supply/demand zones + a trend filter. Let us say right away that it determines trends exactly the same way as our flagship indicator P73 Trend & Target Dynamics. We do not abandon the author's logic of trend determination.
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BTC continues to hold well around $90,000 and has formed a density of targets up to $91,600.
BTC continues to hold well around $90,000 and has formed a density of targets up to $91,600.
Such densities from our indicator, we remind you, are often taken by impulses. But each case is individual and has its own moments. In this moment, which has already been discussed - two important resistances:
Such densities from our indicator, we remind you, are often taken by impulses. But each case is individual and has its own moments. In this moment, which has already been discussed - two important resistances:
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The signals of the hourly timeframe reflect today's "swings" in the crypto market well. Initially, at the first performance, the price of #BTC (and several altcoins) transitions into a stable uptrend on the hourly timeframe. Then, without fulfilling the targets and already on the next candle - a break and return to a downtrend. But after just three candles - a return to the uptrend. Such "swings" are a rare phenomenon. And painful for those trading with high leverage.
Currently, the uptrend has basic targets of 90,742$, 91,540$, 92,338$. And the potential break level is 88,747$. Obvious resistance, besides the horizontal level of 90,314$, is the EMA 50 of the hourly timeframe.
As a result of this "cutting", our P73 CryptoMarket Monitor has issued contradictory signals several times - in the short term, the average probability is either a continuation of the upward trend or a continuation of the downward trend. The reason is precisely the "cutting" on the hourly timeframe. For now, the signal of continued upward movement is in effect. But considering the current market - it would be better to wait for either new uptrends on the hourly timeframe or a start with uptrends already on the 2-hour timeframe.
Currently, the uptrend has basic targets of 90,742$, 91,540$, 92,338$. And the potential break level is 88,747$. Obvious resistance, besides the horizontal level of 90,314$, is the EMA 50 of the hourly timeframe.
As a result of this "cutting", our P73 CryptoMarket Monitor has issued contradictory signals several times - in the short term, the average probability is either a continuation of the upward trend or a continuation of the downward trend. The reason is precisely the "cutting" on the hourly timeframe. For now, the signal of continued upward movement is in effect. But considering the current market - it would be better to wait for either new uptrends on the hourly timeframe or a start with uptrends already on the 2-hour timeframe.
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Trump continues to push markets up with his statements, again regarding Greenland
Trump continues to push markets up with his statements, again regarding Greenland.
He stated that he does not plan to impose tariffs starting February 1 against those who opposed the U.S. claims on Greenland. He also mentioned that the foundations of a future agreement on Greenland have allegedly been formed.
He stated that he does not plan to impose tariffs starting February 1 against those who opposed the U.S. claims on Greenland. He also mentioned that the foundations of a future agreement on Greenland have allegedly been formed.
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"Big things are seen from a distance" and regarding BTC, the weekly timeframe raises concerns about prospects. The last weekly candle closed negatively, bearish. Not only in terms of structure - but also in terms of signals. The candle tested the EMA 50 of the weekly timeframe and showed sales from it.
This all looks like a breakdown in November from top to bottom and a retest of the breakdown - in the past week. We specifically removed all trend lines and markings from the chart to see a clean picture. Just the chart, EMA 50 and 200, and our indicator.
After such a scenario, it seems quite logical to expect a repeated move towards the second target of the downtrend on the weekly timeframe at $84,659. And even a move towards the yet-to-be-fulfilled third target, $75,169.
Will such a bearish scenario occur? As already mentioned, it will be determined very soon - depending on whether the bulls can maintain a sustainable uptrend on the 2-day timeframe. Will they maintain, in particular, the level of potential breakdown of the uptrend on the 2-day timeframe - $87,695.
This all looks like a breakdown in November from top to bottom and a retest of the breakdown - in the past week. We specifically removed all trend lines and markings from the chart to see a clean picture. Just the chart, EMA 50 and 200, and our indicator.
After such a scenario, it seems quite logical to expect a repeated move towards the second target of the downtrend on the weekly timeframe at $84,659. And even a move towards the yet-to-be-fulfilled third target, $75,169.
Will such a bearish scenario occur? As already mentioned, it will be determined very soon - depending on whether the bulls can maintain a sustainable uptrend on the 2-day timeframe. Will they maintain, in particular, the level of potential breakdown of the uptrend on the 2-day timeframe - $87,695.
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Assets that have shown a bullish signal according to MACD on the monthly time frame over the past few months
If there are assets in the crypto market today that have shown a bullish signal according to MACD on the monthly time frame over the past few months?
Let's remember, this is one of the most recognized indicators, which also performs excellently on higher time frames:
- A bullish signal for it is the crossing of the signal line relative to the second line from bottom to top and a green histogram.
Let's remember, this is one of the most recognized indicators, which also performs excellently on higher time frames:
- A bullish signal for it is the crossing of the signal line relative to the second line from bottom to top and a green histogram.
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We visually show what the situation looks like for BTC on the 2-day timeframe
We visually show what the situation looks like for BTC on the 2-day timeframe. Where, as mentioned yesterday, the last bastion of bulls based on our indicator is located.
The price has already been hovering near the potential breakdown level of $87,695 for the second candle.
IF buyers can not only hold it but also push the price upwards - there is a chance for a return to growth and to achieve the basic trend targets: $98,145, $102,325, $106,505.
The price has already been hovering near the potential breakdown level of $87,695 for the second candle.
IF buyers can not only hold it but also push the price upwards - there is a chance for a return to growth and to achieve the basic trend targets: $98,145, $102,325, $106,505.
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If BTC does not hold the level 87 457$ - it may experience an aggressive devaluation down to 84 485$. Quickly, even with a one-minute candle. The zone 84 485-87 457$ - is the zone of impulse movements.
The established uptrend "named after Trump" on the hourly timeframe broke with the next hourly candle, confirming the danger of pump on the news that was reported. The basic targets of the new downtrend on the hourly timeframe are 87 034$ and 86 336$.
One can expect that three Strong signals of a potential low on the 10-minute timeframe will have already worked out. But considering the strength of sellers, they currently look like French fries instead of a door lock from a well-known meme.
The established uptrend "named after Trump" on the hourly timeframe broke with the next hourly candle, confirming the danger of pump on the news that was reported. The basic targets of the new downtrend on the hourly timeframe are 87 034$ and 86 336$.
One can expect that three Strong signals of a potential low on the 10-minute timeframe will have already worked out. But considering the strength of sellers, they currently look like French fries instead of a door lock from a well-known meme.
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Swissblock: The risk index for BTC is rising, the market remains in consolidation for now.
Swissblock: The risk index for BTC is rising, the market remains in consolidation for now.
#Swissblock updated their Bitcoin Risk Index: the indicator has risen to 21, closely approaching the High Risk zone (25).
This is an important moment - formally we are still in a low-risk environment, but the rise of the index hints that the market continues to "digest" that very period of massive high risk that has lasted for the past few months. Simply put - the consequences of overheating are not over yet.
#Swissblock updated their Bitcoin Risk Index: the indicator has risen to 21, closely approaching the High Risk zone (25).
This is an important moment - formally we are still in a low-risk environment, but the rise of the index hints that the market continues to "digest" that very period of massive high risk that has lasted for the past few months. Simply put - the consequences of overheating are not over yet.
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In his speech at Davos, Trump paid special attention to the crypto market
In his speech at Davos, Trump paid special attention to the crypto market. And to the financial markets in general.
If stories about the stock market and how it falls because of Biden and rises because of Trump are already familiar to us - then the crypto market is usually mentioned less frequently by Trump in his speeches of such level.
If stories about the stock market and how it falls because of Biden and rises because of Trump are already familiar to us - then the crypto market is usually mentioned less frequently by Trump in his speeches of such level.
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Trump stated in his speech in Davos that Greenland will not be taken by force
Trump stated in his speech in Davos that Greenland will not be taken by force. He also mentioned that the USA plans to prepare a proposal to purchase Greenland:
"Well, this is probably the loudest statement I've made, because people thought I would use force. But I don't need to use force. I don't want to use force. I will not use force. All that the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland, which we have already owned as trustees, but respectfully returned to Denmark...
"Well, this is probably the loudest statement I've made, because people thought I would use force. But I don't need to use force. I don't want to use force. I will not use force. All that the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland, which we have already owned as trustees, but respectfully returned to Denmark...
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Santiment: large wallets are buying BTC, retail is exiting positions
Santiment: large wallets are buying BTC, retail is exiting positions.
According to #Santiment, against the backdrop of the price drop of #BTC to around $89,400, the accumulation structure looks indicative: whales and sharks continue to increase their share, while small wallets are locking in exits.
What exactly has been happening over the last 9 days:
According to #Santiment, against the backdrop of the price drop of #BTC to around $89,400, the accumulation structure looks indicative: whales and sharks continue to increase their share, while small wallets are locking in exits.
What exactly has been happening over the last 9 days:
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At this moment, President Trump of the United States is delivering a speech in Davos
At this moment, President Trump of the United States is delivering a speech in Davos.
Trump began his speech with the phrase that "friends and a few enemies" gathered at the forum. After that, he started to talk about his achievements over the year in the White House and also began to criticize Europe. He stated that some European countries are "not in the best condition":
Trump began his speech with the phrase that "friends and a few enemies" gathered at the forum. After that, he started to talk about his achievements over the year in the White House and also began to criticize Europe. He stated that some European countries are "not in the best condition":
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Matrixport: BTC is currently trading not as a "safe haven", but as an asset that depends on who exactly holds the position.
On the chart - the options "skew" for BTC (the difference between the implied volatility of call options and put options). Simply put: it is an indicator of what market participants want more - insurance against declines or bets on growth.
Currently, it is evident that demand is shifting towards puts. In other words, the market is starting to actively buy protection against declines (puts) compared to bets on growth (calls). This is not panic, but a clear tilt towards caution.
The reason, analysts at #Matrixport believe, is macro nervousness, not a "break of BTC". Its trigger has been geopolitical/trade risks: discussions of tariffs (10-25%) on European goods for resistance to Greenland's joining the USA - have increased uncertainty. In such conditions, institutions cut risks across their portfolios.
This is a story about player behavior. A pullback in this context speaks more not about BTC itself, but about the fact that it is now managed by tactical money, which quickly hedges and quickly moves into defensive modes.
While the market is shifting into puts - this is definitely a "we are being careful" mode, not "we are flying on ATN non-stop".
On the chart - the options "skew" for BTC (the difference between the implied volatility of call options and put options). Simply put: it is an indicator of what market participants want more - insurance against declines or bets on growth.
Currently, it is evident that demand is shifting towards puts. In other words, the market is starting to actively buy protection against declines (puts) compared to bets on growth (calls). This is not panic, but a clear tilt towards caution.
The reason, analysts at #Matrixport believe, is macro nervousness, not a "break of BTC". Its trigger has been geopolitical/trade risks: discussions of tariffs (10-25%) on European goods for resistance to Greenland's joining the USA - have increased uncertainty. In such conditions, institutions cut risks across their portfolios.
This is a story about player behavior. A pullback in this context speaks more not about BTC itself, but about the fact that it is now managed by tactical money, which quickly hedges and quickly moves into defensive modes.
While the market is shifting into puts - this is definitely a "we are being careful" mode, not "we are flying on ATN non-stop".
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The biggest problem for cryptocurrency bulls today is the signals on the daily timeframe
The biggest problem for cryptocurrency bulls today is the signals that came with the closing of the daily candle. According to our indicator, of course. But who knows how such signals play out - will not question the risks.
This is a significant, enormous risk for the expectation of a bullish January and February that we were counting on. And if the situation is not corrected this week or, at the latest, next week - the entire medium-term forecast for the cryptocurrency market will need to be revised.
This is a significant, enormous risk for the expectation of a bullish January and February that we were counting on. And if the situation is not corrected this week or, at the latest, next week - the entire medium-term forecast for the cryptocurrency market will need to be revised.
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