华尔街保洁员Rock
中长线交易员/宏观分析师/擅长交易心理学/只在关键位置做交易/X: wallstreetcln
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$BTC When I was shorting at 126,000, everyone told me I would see 130,000 and 150,000. Now, at 95,000, I'm telling you this is not the bottom. Will you believe it? Continue to hold the short position!
I am getting more and more excited with my handheld short position and cash...
1. On-chain whale liquidations (currently happening)
2. Run on small and medium exchanges or asset management companies (will happen soon)
After both end, I will step in to bottom fish
2. Run on small and medium exchanges or asset management companies (will happen soon)
After both end, I will step in to bottom fish
I took a rough glance at the square, and currently, the sentiment for going long remains exceptionally high. This suggests that the bottom of this round of market activity has likely not fully emerged.
So why are so many people still chasing long positions? The fundamental reason is not optimism but rather a rebound of emotions after missing the best shorting opportunities earlier—unwillingness to accept losses and a desire to "make back" what was lost, leading to counter-trend trading.
However, the market does not reward emotions. Many times, missing out is just missing out. The truly mature choice is to patiently wait for the confirmation of the next trend. During this transition period, you can learn, travel, or spend time with family, rather than forcefully participating in a market that does not belong to you.
When you start desperately trying to reclaim your original losses from the market, it is often the moment when the market is most likely to deliver the "final blow."
So why are so many people still chasing long positions? The fundamental reason is not optimism but rather a rebound of emotions after missing the best shorting opportunities earlier—unwillingness to accept losses and a desire to "make back" what was lost, leading to counter-trend trading.
However, the market does not reward emotions. Many times, missing out is just missing out. The truly mature choice is to patiently wait for the confirmation of the next trend. During this transition period, you can learn, travel, or spend time with family, rather than forcefully participating in a market that does not belong to you.
When you start desperately trying to reclaim your original losses from the market, it is often the moment when the market is most likely to deliver the "final blow."
Exiting the market in August when market sentiment was overheated, the 13 main signs of turning from bull to bear when shorting BTC and ETH, the post was published in November.
Organized $BTC current strong bear market's 13 main performances:
1. Bearish divergence began to appear in the summer
2. Death cross confirmed for the first time, first time below EMA50 weekly line
3. Almost no liquidity in the repurchase market, the market is empty
4. Retail investors are still holding positions, no obvious signs of capitulation
5. Repeating the bearish fractal of 2021-2022
6. Bank liquidity comparable to the level during the Credit Suisse collapse
7. Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar
8. Bank of Japan in trouble, repurchase failures
9. From October 10th, a large number of trading companies and institutions have been liquidated
10. Bitcoin follows a 4-year cycle, currently in a bear market phase
11. Insider selling of stocks has been massive since August
12. Regional bank collapse has been happening for a month
13. Retail investors still harbor illusions about a bull market, continue to buy on dips
1. Bearish divergence began to appear in the summer
2. Death cross confirmed for the first time, first time below EMA50 weekly line
3. Almost no liquidity in the repurchase market, the market is empty
4. Retail investors are still holding positions, no obvious signs of capitulation
5. Repeating the bearish fractal of 2021-2022
6. Bank liquidity comparable to the level during the Credit Suisse collapse
7. Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar
8. Bank of Japan in trouble, repurchase failures
9. From October 10th, a large number of trading companies and institutions have been liquidated
10. Bitcoin follows a 4-year cycle, currently in a bear market phase
11. Insider selling of stocks has been massive since August
12. Regional bank collapse has been happening for a month
13. Retail investors still harbor illusions about a bull market, continue to buy on dips
A major financial storm is looming.
The old financial order is rapidly collapsing, and a brand new economic and industrial system is being pushed onto the historical stage. This is the beginning of the fifth industrial revolution.
The times will not wait for anyone. Either quickly adjust your perceptions and keep up with the pace of change, or be left behind, gradually marginalized in the old system.
The old financial order is rapidly collapsing, and a brand new economic and industrial system is being pushed onto the historical stage. This is the beginning of the fifth industrial revolution.
The times will not wait for anyone. Either quickly adjust your perceptions and keep up with the pace of change, or be left behind, gradually marginalized in the old system.
I took a rough glance at the square, and currently, the sentiment for going long remains exceptionally high. This suggests that the bottom of this round of market activity has likely not fully emerged.
So why are so many people still chasing long positions? The fundamental reason is not optimism but rather a rebound of emotions after missing the best shorting opportunities earlier—unwillingness to accept losses and a desire to "make back" what was lost, leading to counter-trend trading.
However, the market does not reward emotions. Many times, missing out is just missing out. The truly mature choice is to patiently wait for the confirmation of the next trend. During this transition period, you can learn, travel, or spend time with family, rather than forcefully participating in a market that does not belong to you.
When you start desperately trying to reclaim your original losses from the market, it is often the moment when the market is most likely to deliver the "final blow."
So why are so many people still chasing long positions? The fundamental reason is not optimism but rather a rebound of emotions after missing the best shorting opportunities earlier—unwillingness to accept losses and a desire to "make back" what was lost, leading to counter-trend trading.
However, the market does not reward emotions. Many times, missing out is just missing out. The truly mature choice is to patiently wait for the confirmation of the next trend. During this transition period, you can learn, travel, or spend time with family, rather than forcefully participating in a market that does not belong to you.
When you start desperately trying to reclaim your original losses from the market, it is often the moment when the market is most likely to deliver the "final blow."
Forward the post from January 10, when the Bitcoin price was around 90,000.
On January 15, exited all long hedge positions entered at 85,800 in the community at a price of 97,000, reversed direction and began to short BTC in batches.
On January 15, exited all long hedge positions entered at 85,800 in the community at a price of 97,000, reversed direction and began to short BTC in batches.
Current trading operations
1、Maintain 126k short position
2、Add more short positions between 97k and 107k
3、Hold a Bitcoin long hedge position of 85,800 USD
4、Set the BTC long position stop-loss at the entry area, reduced position once at 92,500 USD
5、Next target is around 70,000 USD for Bitcoin, bearish
1、Maintain 126k short position
2、Add more short positions between 97k and 107k
3、Hold a Bitcoin long hedge position of 85,800 USD
4、Set the BTC long position stop-loss at the entry area, reduced position once at 92,500 USD
5、Next target is around 70,000 USD for Bitcoin, bearish
On January 11, $ETH , it was mentioned in the community that the 2000 dollar Ethereum is just a matter of time, but unfortunately the market did not provide the opportunity to add short positions at 3600-3800 dollars.
70k is loading⌛️
$BTC The price this week is highly likely to close below the EMA100 weekly line, and the market structure may shift from a trending market to a new sideways range phase, gradually advancing towards the 70k area.
It is important to emphasize that 70k is not the ultimate target of this bear market, but rather a phase for short observation and speculation.
It is important to emphasize that 70k is not the ultimate target of this bear market, but rather a phase for short observation and speculation.
$BTC The price this week is highly likely to close below the EMA100 weekly line, and the market structure may shift from a trending market to a new sideways range phase, gradually advancing towards the 70k area.
It is important to emphasize that 70k is not the ultimate target of this bear market, but rather a phase for short observation and speculation.
It is important to emphasize that 70k is not the ultimate target of this bear market, but rather a phase for short observation and speculation.
When MSTR admits defeat, it is the most desperate time for the market.
It is still early, still early, and Huazi has taken on leverage; these few days are very likely to be sleepless.
It is still early, still early, and Huazi has taken on leverage; these few days are very likely to be sleepless.
In every round of a bear market, a batch of institutions will be eliminated.
In the face of absolute trends, any amount of capital is just a mantis trying to stop a car.
So why does he keep shouting 'eternal bull market'?
Because he holds a large amount of ETH chips, and if he sells them all at once, it will inevitably cause a severe shock to the market.
The only way out is to attract retail investors to absorb liquidity through narrative and emotion, completing a quiet exit amidst the noise.
In the face of absolute trends, any amount of capital is just a mantis trying to stop a car.
So why does he keep shouting 'eternal bull market'?
Because he holds a large amount of ETH chips, and if he sells them all at once, it will inevitably cause a severe shock to the market.
The only way out is to attract retail investors to absorb liquidity through narrative and emotion, completing a quiet exit amidst the noise.
As the documents related to Epstein are gradually disclosed, combined with the rumors circulating in the market about a potential connection to Bitcoin, the emotional impact is inevitable. Even if these claims are ultimately debunked, the market often does not wait for facts to clarify, but instead prices in panic in advance, further spreading emotional selling.
From a rational perspective, these rumors may not necessarily have a substantial impact on the long-term value of Bitcoin. However, in the current fragile market structure, any negative narrative will be amplified and become a catalyst for accelerating the decline.
Considering both technical and cyclical perspectives, my judgment on Bitcoin remains clear and bearish. The price trend has fully validated the previous speculation about the formation of a cycle top, and the top judgment proposed in the range of 115k–125k is gradually being fulfilled by the market. Bitcoin has undoubtedly entered a bear market phase, and the original medium to long-term logic still holds.
Summary:
1. Bitcoin has effectively broken below the 100-week moving average, which is a historically significant key indicator, reaffirming the bear market structure.
2. Expectations for the bottom of this cycle have further shifted downward, with the new low range expected to fall between 54,000 and 44,000 dollars.
3. The price has broken below MSTR's comprehensive cost line of about 76,000 dollars, significantly amplifying market risk exposure and exacerbating panic and passive selling pressure.
4. The overall trend remains in a unilateral downward phase, and the cycle top judgment has been repeatedly validated by the market.
5. Strategically, I continue to maintain a bearish outlook, with no plans for profit-taking or reversal in the short term.
Overall, the current market is not experiencing "excessive panic" but is undergoing a systematic correction of previous overestimations, and the downward cycle has not yet ended.
From a rational perspective, these rumors may not necessarily have a substantial impact on the long-term value of Bitcoin. However, in the current fragile market structure, any negative narrative will be amplified and become a catalyst for accelerating the decline.
Considering both technical and cyclical perspectives, my judgment on Bitcoin remains clear and bearish. The price trend has fully validated the previous speculation about the formation of a cycle top, and the top judgment proposed in the range of 115k–125k is gradually being fulfilled by the market. Bitcoin has undoubtedly entered a bear market phase, and the original medium to long-term logic still holds.
Summary:
1. Bitcoin has effectively broken below the 100-week moving average, which is a historically significant key indicator, reaffirming the bear market structure.
2. Expectations for the bottom of this cycle have further shifted downward, with the new low range expected to fall between 54,000 and 44,000 dollars.
3. The price has broken below MSTR's comprehensive cost line of about 76,000 dollars, significantly amplifying market risk exposure and exacerbating panic and passive selling pressure.
4. The overall trend remains in a unilateral downward phase, and the cycle top judgment has been repeatedly validated by the market.
5. Strategically, I continue to maintain a bearish outlook, with no plans for profit-taking or reversal in the short term.
Overall, the current market is not experiencing "excessive panic" but is undergoing a systematic correction of previous overestimations, and the downward cycle has not yet ended.
What will happen to Bitcoin next? (Weekly report on 2026/2/2)
Two weeks ago, when the price of Bitcoin was around 95k, I clearly pointed out in the weekly report (within the community) that the market at that time was essentially a high-level consolidation, and this consolidation leaned towards a bearish outlook in the trend structure, with a drop below 80k being just a matter of time. It turns out that this judgment was not alarmist. BTC fell below 80k as expected, and the trend this week is actually more significant than most people realize.
A seriously undervalued signal in the market is that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week moving average (MA100). This moving average has historically been an important boundary for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. For a period of time, BTC has consistently operated above the MA100, and the breakdown this week indicates that the long-term trend structure has changed.
A seriously undervalued signal in the market is that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week moving average (MA100). This moving average has historically been an important boundary for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. For a period of time, BTC has consistently operated above the MA100, and the breakdown this week indicates that the long-term trend structure has changed.
What will happen to Bitcoin next? (Weekly report on 2026/2/2)
Two weeks ago, when the price of Bitcoin was around 95k, I clearly pointed out in the weekly report (within the community) that the market at that time was essentially a high-level consolidation, and this consolidation leaned towards a bearish outlook in the trend structure, with a drop below 80k being just a matter of time. It turns out that this judgment was not alarmist. BTC fell below 80k as expected, and the trend this week is actually more significant than most people realize.
A seriously undervalued signal in the market is that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week moving average (MA100). This moving average has historically been an important boundary for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. For a period of time, BTC has consistently operated above the MA100, and the breakdown this week indicates that the long-term trend structure has changed.
A seriously undervalued signal in the market is that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week moving average (MA100). This moving average has historically been an important boundary for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. For a period of time, BTC has consistently operated above the MA100, and the breakdown this week indicates that the long-term trend structure has changed.
Many people are still focusing on the clearing map for trading while ignoring the overall fundamentals. I observed the liquidity crisis back in September, and I will share again some of the things I wrote at that time. #流动性危机
My gold and silver positions are limited to physical, as mentioned earlier.
I opened a very small position in paper gold and silver to test the waters, after all, the decoupling is severe at the moment, and China's demand for silver is still increasing.
I opened a very small position in paper gold and silver to test the waters, after all, the decoupling is severe at the moment, and China's demand for silver is still increasing.
Very good buying point, I have decided to continue increasing my position!
This headlong drop happened again over the weekend, likely due to a certain institution's quantitative robot starting to offload. Currently, the coin price is close to MicroStrategy's cost price, and the big bomb hasn't exploded yet; the bottom-fishing continues to wait.
Hmm, now is not a good time to buy the dip.
Looking back now, our short-selling strategy has outperformed the entire market.
Since August, there has been a large number of insider sell-offs in the market.
I have been tracking this data for over a year, but I have never seen such a scale of insider sell-offs, which has continued from August 2025 to the present.
This week remains unchanged, as insiders seem to have reached some kind of consensus? They keep selling!
I have been tracking this data for over a year, but I have never seen such a scale of insider sell-offs, which has continued from August 2025 to the present.
This week remains unchanged, as insiders seem to have reached some kind of consensus? They keep selling!
$BTC Who still remembers the short positions at price levels of 97k and above? If the market allows for building positions, this is hardly worth mentioning. But looking at the perfect trend on the chart, it only triggered a short position once, and then the price plummeted by 20%.
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