投机投机之路

The HYPE, which claims to be the next-generation exchange, has been attacked again.
A giant whale opened a long position of 3 million USDT with 3000 WU on HYPE.
Can you believe a platform actually allows one account to hold 3000 WU?
The key is that this token is only worth 100 million.
Then, as usual, the whale directly withdrew profits, forcefully closing positions and leaving significant long positions for the platform to liquidate... This time, HYPE lost several million USD again.
Feeling sorry for the HLP contributors who put money in, it was originally supposed to be a good annual return, but the platform is unreliable and always gets attacked in the same way. From the last jellyjelly to now, nothing has changed, it shows that HYPE actually has very poor risk control quality.
If you have that money to buy HYPE, why not buy BNB instead?
$HYPE $BNB $POPCAT
{future}(POPCATUSDT)

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (15)】

In June 2015, after this indicator peaked, it took 916 days to reach the bull peak.
In March 2019, after this indicator peaked, it took 954 days to reach the bull peak.
In January 2023, after this indicator peaked, it took 1002 days to reach $126k.

The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the blue line represents the ratio of the "average purchase price of Bitcoin long-term holders" to the "average purchase price of Bitcoin short-term holders."

The average purchase price of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, typically referring to investors holding for more than 155 days) compared to short-term holders (STH, typically referring to investors holding for less than 155 days), expressed as (LTH Realized Price / STH Realized Price), mainly reflects the relative cost basis differences among different holder groups in the Bitcoin market, thereby revealing market cycle phases, investor sentiment, and potential reversal signals.

A lower ratio: Indicates that the average cost of long-term holders is lower relative to short-term holders, which usually occurs in the later stages of a bull market or at the peak. At this time, short-term holders (often new entrants) buy at higher prices, leading to their higher cost basis, while long-term holders hold at lower costs. This situation reflects an overheated market, strong demand but insufficient supply, and may signal an impending price correction or a transition into a bear market, as new participants are likely to capitulate in price fluctuations.

A higher ratio: Indicates that the average cost of long-term holders is higher relative to short-term holders, commonly seen at the bottoms of bear markets or in recovery stages. Short-term holders may buy at lower prices (for example, after panic selling), while long-term holders have a relatively higher cost basis (due to their earlier purchases). This reflects that market capitulation behavior is occurring, with recent participants realizing losses, and the market may enter an accumulation phase, signaling a potential upward reversal until prices exceed the cost of short-term holders or long-term holder groups adjust.

Changes in LTH/STH can serve as indicators for assessing market health and the distribution of holder behavior, helping to determine whether one is in a state of excessive optimism or panic.

$BTC Because on-chain data transparency is no longer suitable for money laundering or gray market transactions. Recently, the U.S. Department of Justice seized so many bitcoins, which actually illustrates this issue—every flow of funds can be traced. Next, this will instead give rise to new demands: those privacy coins that can completely hide transaction records. As regulations become stricter and centralized forces impose more restrictions on bitcoin, the value and demand for privacy coins may be re-evaluated. Therefore, in the next bull market, I will personally focus on the privacy coin sector, such as $XMR $ZEC
{spot}(ZECUSDT)
{future}(XMRUSDT)
{spot}(BTCUSDT)

Last night, the market plummeted, and many people believe the reason is Trump, but this is just a factor from the news side. The core reason is that the stablecoin $USDE depegged last night, causing many leveraged contracts using USDE as margin to be liquidated, resulting in heavy losses not only for retail investors but also for many market makers.

I have previously emphasized to everyone not to hold any stablecoins other than USDT and USDC. Wasn't the lesson from the last bull market with LUNA and USTC painful enough? Once a stablecoin crashes, it goes directly to zero. Although USDE was pulled back last night after depegging, it is because we are still in a bull market, and the project team has funds. When the bear market arrives, if a stablecoin depegs, it is very likely to head towards zero, which will crash the entire market at that time.
{spot}(USDEUSDT)

$120 million principal, 10x leveraged long on ETH, ancient whale trapped, floating loss of $4.2 million

This whale is no ordinary person; back in the day, he spent $95 million to buy BTC on Binance and HTX, holding on for 7 years without wavering. Finally unable to resist, seeing a profit of $1.12 billion, he chose to swap BTC for ETH.

Yesterday, this brother sold 3,100 BTC, first buying $213 million worth of Ethereum spot, then rushed to Hyperliquid, depositing $120 million, and directly went in with 10x leverage to long Ethereum, going all in.

🥶 Getting carried away, once the gambling instinct kicks in, one can't hold back.

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This brother directly brought BTC as collateral and deposited into 3 accounts, going all in!

🏹 Ethereum never disappoints when it comes to disappointing people; sure enough, he got trapped as soon as he entered.

4 accounts, purchase prices are: 4333, 4325, 4296, 4277
4 accounts, liquidation prices are: 3486, 3513, 1429, 3611

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🔸 The whale still has too much money; using 10% of $1.2 billion to play a contract seems reasonable, truly impressive.

🔹 The casino never lacks funds; what it lacks is the opposing players willing to bet. I worry he might expose his positions and be jointly targeted by Wall Street because your liquidation prices are all written on your face.

🔸 Moreover, 10x leverage really is risky; with a liquidation price of 3611, Ethereum could easily reach that after a few fluctuations by the end of the month.

It's destined to be a grand performance, with the outcome uncertain; we retail investors are just watching the show, waiting to see the conclusion, who is the hunter and who is the prey.

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*Attachments: Whale account addresses
https://hypurrscan.io/address/0x3f7bAC9E92818eD337685f55dFb627eF48C28027
https://hypurrscan.io/address/0x952044Eb3C860B00778EA414670a6C8C22f84ac6
https://hypurrscan.io/address/0xcc0c740445Ece706A625a07a0aB771B517dEe969
https://hypurrscan.io/address/0x2eA18c23F72a4b6172c55B411823cdc5335923F4

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✅ Speculation

Will the whale long on ETH make a big profit or a big loss by the end of the month?

Let's watch, it's fun.

xrp Ripple is a product created by American capital, with investors behind it like a16z, a top crypto institution

xrp Sun Geng Sun Yuchen is the first person in China

It was Sun Geng who brought Ripple to China

Giving the American Ripple crypto pilot

A great contribution