币富迪迪

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【Economic Morning Brief | January 16, 2026】
1. U.S. stock indices reversed two consecutive declines, TSMC rose over 4% on strong earnings, driving chip stocks higher; ASML hit a record high, SanDisk jumped 5.5%; metals rally paused, gold, silver, copper, and tin dipped from record highs during the session; crude oil fell over 4%; offshore RMB rose above 6.97, marking the second day this week of a 20-month high.
2. The People's Bank of China decided to lower the rediscount and relending rates by 25 basis points, stating there is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year.
3. In 2025, China's total social financing scale increased by over 3.5 trillion yuan, with financing methods other than loans such as bonds accounting for over 50% of the increase; RMB loans increased by 1.627 trillion yuan.
4. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: In 2026, we will fully focus on breaking through reusable rocket technology.
5. Multiple Federal Reserve officials signaled support for holding rates steady this month.
6. The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with new jobless claims falling to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November last year.
7. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities rebounded to a record high in November, Japan's holdings reached their highest in over three years, while China's holdings hit a record low since 2008.
8. Report: U.S. Congress parties jointly push for a $2.5 billion strategic reserve plan for critical minerals.
9. Reports indicate the Bank of Japan is increasingly concerned about inflationary effects caused by a weak yen.
10. Demand for AI chips remains strong, TSMC's Q4 net profit rose 35% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations; full-year 2025 capital expenditure reached $40.9 billion; at the earnings call, the company stated that capacity is extremely tight, and capital spending will significantly increase over the next three years, with the 2026 capital expenditure guidance raised substantially to up to $56 billion.
11. Vanke's 5.7 billion yuan medium-term note holder meeting proposal unveiled: includes four repayment plans, with up to 40% of principal possibly repaid on January 28.
12. Goldman Sachs' Q4 net revenue fell 3% year-on-year, but stock trading income broke a Wall Street record, and net profit grew 12% above expectations.
13. Driven by wealth management business, Morgan Stanley's Q4 net revenue rose 10% year-on-year, and bond underwriting income surged 93%.
14. Alibaba Qwen APP launch: Fully integrated with Taobao, Alipay, Taobao Flash Sale, and other Alibaba ecosystem businesses.

【Financial Breakfast | January 15, 2026】
1. The three major U.S. stock indices have entered their first two consecutive declines since 2026, with the Nasdaq falling 1%, marking the largest drop in nearly a month.
2. China's foreign trade is accelerating recovery, with December exports in U.S. dollars increasing by 6.6% year-on-year and imports up by 5.7% year-on-year. Steel exports hit a new high, and rare earth exports surged by 32% year-on-year; annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while coal imports saw the largest drop in a decade.
3. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have raised the minimum financing margin ratio from 80% to 100%. Regulatory measures are aimed at “cooling down” the market, with experts stating that policy adjustments intend to cool the market rather than “putting it out.”
4. The U.S. Supreme Court once again failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case, with the Nasdaq maintaining a 1% decline.
5. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly strengthened in November, rising 0.6% month-on-month, driven significantly by automotive and holiday spending; rising energy costs pushed the U.S. November PPI year-on-year back up to 3%, while core PPI month-on-month was below expectations; U.S. December existing home sales hit their strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, with the smallest increase in home prices in two and a half years.
6. Federal Reserve 2026 voting member Kashkari supports Powell, advocating for maintaining interest rates in January. 2026 voting member Paulson sticks to a cautious stance, while 2025 voting member Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of independence in combating inflation; Federal Reserve governor Mester finds new reasons for rate cuts: deregulation from the Trump administration.
7. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Overall economic improvement, with employment levels generally unchanged across most regions, and moderate price increases in most areas.
8. Trump states he will “watch” the developments in Iran, while the U.S. government received a “very positive statement” from the Iranian side, leading U.S. oil to drop 3% during the session.
9. U.S. media: The U.S. will suspend all visas for 75 countries.
10. Xinhua News Agency: The U.S. White House announces a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors and other goods.
11. Alibaba Qianwen officially announces: An APP launch conference will be held on January 15, with AI expected to “open the era of handling affairs.”
12. 2026 welcomes a super IPO cycle: OpenAI and Anthropic are reported to be taking preliminary actions, while SpaceX is in talks with multiple banks.
13. OpenAI invests $10 billion, teaming up with Cerebras to deploy 750 megawatts of computing power over three years.
14. The yen fell to an 18-month low against the dollar on Wednesday, with Japan's finance minister warning against currency speculation.
15. OPEC releases its first outlook for 2027, expecting oil demand to continue growing at a steady pace.

【Finance Morning Brief | January 14, 2026】
1. The S&P 500 index pulled back from record highs, with JPMorgan Chase leading the decline in bank stocks after reporting earnings; WTI crude oil futures rose above $61; silver hit a new all-time high.
2. U.S. core CPI growth in December came in below expectations, prompting traders to increase bets on rate cuts by mid-year.
3. Trump said he has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, causing crude oil to surge over 3% during the session.
4. Trump further intensified scrutiny on the Federal Reserve, criticizing Powell as either incompetent or corrupt, and stated that CPI data gives Powell an opportunity for a significant rate cut—if the economy remains strong, a cut should be made.
5. Central banks from multiple countries issued a joint statement offering full support to Powell, with the Bank of Canada governor stating he

#美国CPI数据即将公布 data has been released, impact is minor, for the air force, no positive news is the best negative news, smash it!

#美国CPI数据即将公布 Tonight at 21:30, the direction will be decided—will it continue to oscillate or break through? It all depends on tonight's CPI data!

【Financial Morning Brief | January 13, 2026】
1. S&P 500 index hits a new high, Google's market cap surpasses $4 trillion, Chinese stocks surge; offshore RMB hits its highest level against the US dollar since May 2023; gold and silver prices soar to new highs.
2. Trump orders a 25% tariff on all countries doing business with Iran.
3. Investigation into Powell sparks internal conflict, FHFA director accused of being behind the scenes, Bessent warns of 'creating chaos,' White House says Trump did not instruct the action. Powell sued, key Republican lawmaker turns against: I'll vote no, Trump can't appoint a new Fed chair!
4. Trump intensifies pressure on the US Supreme Court: If the court issues an unfavorable ruling on tariffs, the US won't be able to afford the consequences.
5. China's Ministry of Commerce reports progress in consultations on the China-EU electric vehicle case: It is necessary to provide Chinese exporters with general guidance on price commitments.
6. Republicans push for 'Stock Ban Bill': Prohibiting members of Congress from buying individual stocks, with strict penalties for insider trading.
7. Apple chooses Gemini to power the AI version of Siri set to launch this year, Google's market cap reaches $4 trillion for the first time.
8. Meta appoints AI 'chief steward': Former Trump advisor becomes president, Zuckerberg forms executive team to oversee data center investments.
9. 'Orders are truly overwhelming!' Storage testing quote surges 30% overnight, manufacturers planning a second round of price hikes.
10. Catching up with SpaceX, Europe, Canada, Japan are all stepping up efforts, even India is getting involved.
11. 'Prototype of future space tourism,' first flight successful, China's commercial space industry achieves its first sub-orbital parachute recovery test beyond 100 kilometers.

【Financial Morning Brief | January 12, 2026】
1. The S&P 500 hit a new high on Friday, the Nasdaq-100 rose 1%, Intel jumped over 10%, Oracle rose nearly 5%; tensions in Iran pushed crude oil futures up over 2%; silver futures in New York gained 12% for the week.
2. U.S. non-farm payroll jobs added in December fell short of expectations, but the unemployment rate dropped; traders nearly erased bets on a rate cut in January.
3. The University of Michigan's January consumer sentiment index rose to its highest level in four months.
4. Trump again threatened Iran, reportedly having reviewed military strike plans.
5. Media reports revealed Trump had ordered the U.S. military command to draft a plan for 'invasion' of Greenland, which faced resistance from the military.
6. U.S. oil companies remain cautious about the White House's push for a trillion-dollar investment plan in Venezuela.
7. State Council Anti-monopoly Commission: issues such as subsidy wars, price competition, and traffic control are prominent in the food delivery platform services industry, and an investigation and assessment will be conducted.
8. China has submitted applications for 200,000 additional satellites; experts say satellite frequency and orbit resource applications have risen to the level of national strategy.
9. SpaceX is accelerating its deployment, approved to deploy another 7,500 Starlink satellites, bringing the total to 15,000.
10. China's 'AI Four Giants' appeared together for the first time—Alibaba, Tencent, Kimi, and Zhipu 'clashing' on the next steps for large models and the possibility of China overtaking in the AI race.
11. SanDisk raised prices, and full payment is required.

Data has been released, one full and one empty

#ALPHA🔥 this market is becoming more and more interesting!

Top trader Joshua's views before today's data release

Today's non-farm employment data is about to be released. Let's set aside the issues regarding Iran and Israel. The trading plan remains unchanged, as this is a positive event.

My strategy is as follows:

As long as the index doesn't plummet, continue going long

My basic view is that the market bottomed out before the last market closure, and the post-closure data confirms the formation of this bottom.

Therefore, the key event confirming the bottom is likely to occur in today's non-farm data.

The reason is that after this FOMC meeting, February's data will be skipped, directly leading into the March FOMC meeting. Thus, there won't be much unexpected news before the March FOMC.

Today's data is a delayed release, and these figures were not reflected during the previous FOMC meeting. Therefore, today's data will reflect the policy intentions of this FOMC.

Analysis:
1. If the data meets expectations, the index should not decline. Continue going long, but remain cautious (due to the Iran-Israel situation).

2. If employment data is extremely high:
Interest rate hike potential is nearly eliminated, but the market has already largely priced this in, so the market impact will be limited.
US stocks won't crash, and cryptocurrencies will remain stable.
However, CPI's importance will rise, and inflation concerns will intensify. But since the hike expectations have already been digested, the data release shouldn't trigger significant volatility—continue going long.

3. If data is extremely low:
It might suggest room for rate cuts, but market volatility could increase. However, the data must be extremely low to trigger significant volatility.
Short-term selling pressure may emerge, but if there's no selling, continue going long; if there is selling, wait and observe before re-entering.

#加密市场观察 Tonight, two important data releases are scheduled: unemployment rate and non-farm employment figures. Both data points are of five-star importance ⭐, and significant market volatility is expected!

【Financial Morning Brief | January 9, 2026】
1. S&P 500 closed higher, Nasdaq retreated, Nvidia dropped over 2%, Google hit a new all-time high, defense stocks surged, Lockheed Martin rose over 4%, drone manufacturer Kratos jumped over 10%; crude oil rebounded over 4% during the session.
2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: The Federal Reserve should not delay rate cuts, the U.S. will lift sanctions on certain Venezuelan entities, and Trump is expected to decide on the Fed chair人选 in January.
3. Federal Reserve Governor Milan: Expected to cut rates by about 150 basis points in 2026, with interest rates 'significantly above neutral levels'.
4. U.S. labor market shows no clear pressure, initial jobless claims rose slightly to 208,000 last week, below the expected 212,000.
5. 1,000 companies 'surrounding' the White House: demanding refund of $100 billion in tariffs; the Supreme Court may issue a ruling this Friday that could determine fate; Bessent said even an unfavorable ruling would not affect tariff revenues.
6. The U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote to seek to limit Trump’s authority to continue military actions against Venezuela.
7. Trump: Hopes to visit Venezuela in the future; the U.S. will continue to 'manage' Venezuela for years and exploit its oil reserves.
8. Trump stated the U.S. must 'own' all of Greenland; media reports indicate U.S. officials met with Danish counterparts on Thursday to temper statements about 'taking over' Greenland.
9. Trump instructed the purchase of $200 billion in U.S. mortgage-backed bonds to lower home buying costs; the Housing Finance Agency said the goal is for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to execute the purchases, with a decision on whether the two will go public expected within one or two months.
10. Domestic polysilicon hit the daily limit down, short-term demand in the off-season, inventory hard to clear, policy博弈 returns to supply and demand fundamentals.
11. Vanke officially announced: Yu Liang resigned due to retirement at age.
12. MiniMax received over 1,800 times subscription from retail investors ahead of its listing; Baillie Gifford, GIC, and Norway's sovereign fund have entered.
13. Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel officially announced restructuring: integrated refining and chemical operations plus full coverage of terminal networks, building a low-cost, high-resilience aviation fuel supply system.
14. Reminder: China's December CPI and PPI data will be released this Friday, along with the U.S. December non-farm employment report; MiniMax is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

【Economic Morning Brief | January 8, 2025】
1. S&P 500 and Dow Jones retreated from record highs, while Nasdaq rose 0.2%; Google surpassed Apple in market capitalization for the first time since 2019; metal rally cooled down, with silver falling over 6% during the session and spot platinum dropping nearly 8%.
2. China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.34% month-on-month in December; the People's Bank of China has consecutively increased gold reserves for 14 months.
3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments: Accelerate smart terminal upgrades, aiming to achieve secure and reliable supply of key AI core technologies in China by 2027.
4. The U.S. will 'resell' Venezuelan oil and demand Venezuela cut economic ties with China and Russia; China's Foreign Ministry responded: a typical act of bullying.
5. U.S. 'small nonfarm' ADP employment rose by 41,000 in December, below expectations; U.S. November JOLTS job openings fell to the lowest level in over a year, and for the first time in four years, vacancies dropped below unemployment numbers, indicating a slowdown in hiring; U.S. December ISM services index reached 54.4, a new high in over a year, reflecting solid demand and a rebound in hiring.
6. The U.S. claimed to have seized two oil tankers, one of which flew the Russian flag.
7. Precious metals plunged collectively, with the key commodities index rebalancing set to begin on Thursday.
8. 'First AI model stock' Zhipu AI received over a thousand times oversubscription in its Hong Kong public offering, with an issue price of HK$116.20, listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange on Thursday; another major AI unicorn, MiniMax, is reportedly going public in Hong Kong at the highest possible price, with a valuation exceeding HK$46 billion.
9. Reports indicate Kunlun芯 is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO, with a maximum fundraising target of $2 billion.

#加密市场观察 Tonight at 21:15, the ADP employment data will be released, importance level 4 stars⭐, the familiar taste, the familiar formula, seize the opportunity, make some money for the Spring Festival!

【Economic Morning Brief | January 7, 2026】
1. S&P 500 index hits a new high, semiconductor index rises nearly 3%, Micron jumps 10%, storage chip giant SanDisk surges nearly 28%; metal rally continues, LME nickel jumps over 10% intraday, silver up over 6%, LME copper up over 3%, all setting new record highs.
2. Report: The Trump administration is discussing options to acquire Greenland, including military alternatives.
3. This Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court may issue a ruling on tariff issues.
4. China's Ministry of Commerce announced a ban on exporting all dual-use items to Japan's military users.
5. The People's Bank of China clearly outlined its key 2026 priorities: strengthen countercyclical and cross-cycle adjustments, and flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions.
6. The Fed remains divided, Barkin emphasizes 'precise adjustments,' while Miller suggests rate cuts should exceed 100 basis points this year.
7. The 'willingness coalition' has reached consensus: the UK and France will deploy troops to Ukraine after a peace agreement is reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
8. 50 billion revenue forecast too conservative! Nvidia's CFO said data center chip revenue will 'surely be higher' by the end of 2026, and Huang Renxun noted strong demand from Chinese customers.
9. In response to Nvidia, AMD launches MI440X to compete for the enterprise-level AI data center market.
10. Intel unveils a key AI PC chip at CES: first showcase of 18A process technology + 60% performance improvement, marking a 'strategic turning point' for the company.
11. Reminder: China's December foreign exchange and gold reserves data will be released on Wednesday.

【Financial Breakfast | January 6, 2026】
1. US stocks and bonds rise together, the Dow hits a new high, Chevron rises over 5%; crude oil futures rise by more than 1%, gold, silver, and digital currencies surge, and London copper breaks $13,000 for the first time in history.
2. Li Qiang: Strengthen the position of enterprises as the main body of innovation, and promote the iterative upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones in expanded applications.
3. The US December ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly records the largest contraction since 2024, with inventory dragging down.
4. Maduro appears in US court for the first time, pleading “not guilty” to drug trafficking and other charges.
5. Nvidia launches the new generation Rubin platform, with inference costs reduced by 10 times compared to Blackwell, with plans to ship in the second half of the year.
6. AI demand is extremely hot, Samsung and SK Hynix plan to raise DRAM prices by 60%-70%.
7. Demand for AI servers remains strong, Hon Hai's Q4 sales increase by 22% exceeding expectations, with a month-on-month surge of 31.8% in December.
8. Musk releases the “mass production timeline,” and A-share brain-machine interface concept stocks collectively hit the limit up.
9. Zhiyuan Robotics expects to ship over 5100 units in 2025, with shipments in 2026 expected to “reach tens of thousands of units.”