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E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)
Trump signals restraint on attacking Iran
Chickening out? – “There’s no plan for executions or an execution,” said US President Donald Trump, referring to Iran’s actions against protesters. He then added that the US will watch and see what the process is, signaling no immediate strike against the Islamic Republic. Oil and Gold tumbled after his words, and Silver also slumped, albeit also in response to the president's decision not to slap imminent tariffs on some critical metals. Investors see it as another Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) trade.
Why it matters
Oil and deal-making as priorities – Does Trump have guarantees about executions in Iran? There could be other reasons for the apparent change of heart: tensions in the Middle East – Iran sits on the Straits of Hormuz through which 20% of global Crude flows – sending Oil prices higher. Elevated prices at the pump are politically damaging for the president. Also, it is hard to find a figure in Tehran comparable to the Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodriguez. Toppling Iran’s leadership, or the regime, would leave no pliant figure to make deals with, potentially further pushing Crude costs even higher.
$BTC
#Trump
Why it matters
Oil and deal-making as priorities – Does Trump have guarantees about executions in Iran? There could be other reasons for the apparent change of heart: tensions in the Middle East – Iran sits on the Straits of Hormuz through which 20% of global Crude flows – sending Oil prices higher. Elevated prices at the pump are politically damaging for the president. Also, it is hard to find a figure in Tehran comparable to the Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodriguez. Toppling Iran’s leadership, or the regime, would leave no pliant figure to make deals with, potentially further pushing Crude costs even higher.
$BTC
#Trump
There Is Always a Reason to Sell
Even in strong markets, investor sentiment rarely feels stable in real time. Every year brings new headlines that prompt investors to question their positioning, even when the data tells a different story.
Over the last several decades, investors have navigated recessions, political disruptions, debt crises, inflation spikes, pandemics, and more. Despite the frequency and severity of these events, markets have recovered 100 percent of the time.
Even in strong markets, investor sentiment rarely feels stable in real time. Every year brings new headlines that prompt investors to question their positioning, even when the data tells a different story.
Over the last several decades, investors have navigated recessions, political disruptions, debt crises, inflation spikes, pandemics, and more. Despite the frequency and severity of these events, markets have recovered 100 percent of the time.
In the 17 months leading up to March 2000, the Nasdaq climbed more than 230% as investors flooded into anything with an internet story. Prices went vertical while earnings and cash flow barely moved.
AI Leadership and Market Anxiety
With AI investment accelerating and leadership narrowing, investors are asking whether this reflects a lasting productivity shift or the early stages of another tech bubble.
The comparison that is most often made is to the late 1990s.
On the surface, both periods feature a breakthrough innovation, concentrated leadership, and rising expectations. However, headline similarities can overlook the structural differences that drive today’s cycle.
To understand today’s environment, it’s worth revisiting what actually defined the dot-com era and how this cycle differs from it.
$ETH
$BNB
#AI
With AI investment accelerating and leadership narrowing, investors are asking whether this reflects a lasting productivity shift or the early stages of another tech bubble.
The comparison that is most often made is to the late 1990s.
On the surface, both periods feature a breakthrough innovation, concentrated leadership, and rising expectations. However, headline similarities can overlook the structural differences that drive today’s cycle.
To understand today’s environment, it’s worth revisiting what actually defined the dot-com era and how this cycle differs from it.
$ETH
$BNB
#AI
AI Leadership and Market Anxiety
2025 has been defined by an increasingly concentrated market led by a handful of mega-cap names. The top ten holdings in the S&P 500 now comprise roughly 39 percent of the entire index, a level of concentration that raises questions about the index’s durability and risk.
A key driver of this concentration has been the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence. The largest companies in tech and cloud computing continue to scale their AI capabilities, building more data centers and securing the hardware needed for the next generation of models.
2025 has been defined by an increasingly concentrated market led by a handful of mega-cap names. The top ten holdings in the S&P 500 now comprise roughly 39 percent of the entire index, a level of concentration that raises questions about the index’s durability and risk.
A key driver of this concentration has been the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence. The largest companies in tech and cloud computing continue to scale their AI capabilities, building more data centers and securing the hardware needed for the next generation of models.
📈ETFs Won Big in 2025: Where Advisors Are Leaving Mutual Funds Behind.
2025 has been the biggest year in history for ETFs, following a record-breaking 2024, which followed a record-breaking 2023.
In all three years, net new assets for ETFs surpassed $1 trillion. It was evident that 2025 would be a big year for ETFs, as the vehicle gathered nearly $980 billion by October
$ETH
$BTC
#ETF
2025 has been the biggest year in history for ETFs, following a record-breaking 2024, which followed a record-breaking 2023.
In all three years, net new assets for ETFs surpassed $1 trillion. It was evident that 2025 would be a big year for ETFs, as the vehicle gathered nearly $980 billion by October
$ETH
$BTC
#ETF
Laggards & Losers: 10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of October 2025
Hot Stocks: Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of October 2025
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🇺🇸US Sector Movement
Value vs. Growth Performance
Gold has been the absolute standout. Up more than 60% year to date, it has responded consistently to rising money supply, persistent fiscal concerns, and a dollar that has fallen more than 8%. This combination has helped fuel steady demand for the most traditional form of value preservation, which gold has more than reflected throughout the year.
Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction. Even amid expanding regulation and continued institutional attention, the cryptocurrency is down more than 2% in 2025, despite having been up 35% at one point.
The weaker dollar and rising liquidity that supported gold did not have the same effect on Bitcoin, creating a notable contrast for something often positioned as a modern-day store of value.
This split does not define their long-term roles, but it shows how differently assets can move under the same conditions. One traditional hedge surged while the proposed digital alternative gave back gains, offering advisors a reference point when discussing value preservation, risk tolerance, and how various asset styles may respond to shifting economic forces.
$BTC
$ETH
#USDemocraticPartyBlueVault
Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction. Even amid expanding regulation and continued institutional attention, the cryptocurrency is down more than 2% in 2025, despite having been up 35% at one point.
The weaker dollar and rising liquidity that supported gold did not have the same effect on Bitcoin, creating a notable contrast for something often positioned as a modern-day store of value.
This split does not define their long-term roles, but it shows how differently assets can move under the same conditions. One traditional hedge surged while the proposed digital alternative gave back gains, offering advisors a reference point when discussing value preservation, risk tolerance, and how various asset styles may respond to shifting economic forces.
$BTC
$ETH
#USDemocraticPartyBlueVault
At the individual stock level, strength has also been widespread. As of mid-December in the S&P 500:
99 non-tech companies are up more than 25% YTD
313 constituents are trading above their 200-day moving average
66% of the index is positive on the year
$OAX
99 non-tech companies are up more than 25% YTD
313 constituents are trading above their 200-day moving average
66% of the index is positive on the year
$OAX
📈Strength Beyond the Largest Names
As the year progressed, the evidence became harder to ignore. While a small group of companies continued to drive a disproportionate share of returns, gains were not confined to one sector or style.
Healthcare, for example, a laggard for long periods in 2025, became a meaningful contributor as conditions improved. With roughly two weeks left in the year, every major sector has posted positive year-to-date performances, despite a difficult first half.
As the year progressed, the evidence became harder to ignore. While a small group of companies continued to drive a disproportionate share of returns, gains were not confined to one sector or style.
Healthcare, for example, a laggard for long periods in 2025, became a meaningful contributor as conditions improved. With roughly two weeks left in the year, every major sector has posted positive year-to-date performances, despite a difficult first half.
📈The Shape of Market Leadership
By December, just 2% of S&P 500 constituents accounted for close to 40% of total performance, an imbalance raising questions around the risk embedded in broad market exposure.
$BTC
#S&P
By December, just 2% of S&P 500 constituents accounted for close to 40% of total performance, an imbalance raising questions around the risk embedded in broad market exposure.
$BTC
#S&P
How Would Making Regular Contributions Affect Overall Returns?
Using NVIDIA (NVDA), one of the world’s most valuable companies and second-best performer over the last 25 years–as an example, contributing $100 each month since January 2001 would’ve equaled a net total contribution of $30,000, with a total return of $13.63 million.
If the monthly contribution was $250 each month ($75,000 total), the net balance after those 25 years would be $34.07 million today.
$BTC
$ETH
#NVIDIA
Using NVIDIA (NVDA), one of the world’s most valuable companies and second-best performer over the last 25 years–as an example, contributing $100 each month since January 2001 would’ve equaled a net total contribution of $30,000, with a total return of $13.63 million.
If the monthly contribution was $250 each month ($75,000 total), the net balance after those 25 years would be $34.07 million today.
$BTC
$ETH
#NVIDIA
📈What Was the Growth of $10,000 Over the Last 25 Years?
If you invested $10,000 25 years ago into any of the ten best-performing stocks over the last 25 years, your balance today would be in the millions of dollars.
The best-performing stock in the last 25 years was Monster Beverage (MNST). A $10,000 investment into Monster Beverage 25 years ago would be worth $19.83 million today. Right behind it is NVIDIA (NVDA); $10,000 invested into NVIDIA at the start of 2001 would’ve turned into $13.67 million today, or $14.90 million after dividend reinvestment.
$XRP
$BTC
#MarketRebound
If you invested $10,000 25 years ago into any of the ten best-performing stocks over the last 25 years, your balance today would be in the millions of dollars.
The best-performing stock in the last 25 years was Monster Beverage (MNST). A $10,000 investment into Monster Beverage 25 years ago would be worth $19.83 million today. Right behind it is NVIDIA (NVDA); $10,000 invested into NVIDIA at the start of 2001 would’ve turned into $13.67 million today, or $14.90 million after dividend reinvestment.
$XRP
$BTC
#MarketRebound
📈Best Performing Stocks in the Last 25 Years
These are the top-performing stocks between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2025.
These are the top-performing stocks between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2025.
📈Best Performing Stocks in the Last 10 Years
These are the top-performing stocks between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2025.
These are the top-performing stocks between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2025.
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