Ning-宁

Last night, Bitcoin staged an exciting "bull-bear showdown," with the price briefly breaking through the $91,000 mark, and in the past hour, up to $146 million in short positions were forced to close. Who is really driving this sudden surge?

Currently, market sentiment seems to be dominated by a strong buying force. According to the data, Bitcoin's price rapidly surged in a short time, directly breaking through several resistance levels. In this market, short sellers who originally bet on a price correction didn't expect the market to give them a chance to breathe. When the price quickly rises, the stop-loss lines set for short positions at high levels are triggered one after another, creating a chain reaction like dominoes, further pushing up the price—this is a typical "short squeeze" process.

Speaking of which, this rise may not just be a technical breakout. Have you noticed the recent trend of large institutions increasing their holdings in Bitcoin spot ETFs? The movements of whale addresses also indicate that a large amount of capital is accumulating at low levels. These "smart money" seem to have sensed the change in market sentiment early on, while retail short sellers have become the "fuel" for this wave of market activity.

In fact, the $146 million in short liquidation is more like a result than a cause. The market never continues to rise simply because of liquidations; the real driving force lies in the influx of capital, market expectations, and the resonance of institutional layouts. Currently, the RSI indicator is close to neutral, and the price is still running above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the momentum still seemingly leaning towards the bulls in the short term.

However, it must be said that the cryptocurrency market is always unpredictable. Whether this surge can be sustained may still depend on whether the subsequent buying can keep up.
$BTC

26.1.23 Market Analysis

Crypto is weakly declining instead of rising, while gold and silver are reaching new highs again, and the stock market seems to be performing well. This is a turning point in the era. The logic of making money is fundamentally simple: go where there is liquidity. Who is in a super cycle, and who is in a bear market, is clear. Being 'stubborn' seems to only lead to losses. Clinging to the altcoin season, insisting on ETH gaining strength again, and holding onto P-dog, we are only held back by two things: one is path dependency, and the other is sunk cost.

However, Crypto has been actively aligning with the international market. Exchanges are gradually catering to commodities and integrating liquidity. Recently, ONDO has launched over 200 tokenized varieties on the Solana chain, including various stocks. Perhaps in the future, if there are any assets entering a super cycle, we can participate in web3 without feeling it, no longer limited to just one cryptocurrency. In short, where there is ample liquidity, there is money to be made; that is fundamental.

BTC Market: Currently hovering around the 90,000 pressure zone. Do not consider going long here; either go down to test the bottom of 84,000 or 80,000, and only if the bottom shows strong volume can we consider going long. The crypto market will just take time. For gold XAU, look for a pullback to make a long position around 4850~4870. Currently, gold has been strongly rising after small pullbacks. To be honest, it's easy to get off but hard to get back on; just wait for an opportunity.
BTC Resistance Level: 90,500, Support Level: 88,000
$BTC

26.1.22 Market Analysis

Last night the market experienced a small-level up and down fluctuation, but this morning it still hasn't broken through the 90500 resistance level, seemingly with selling volume much larger than demand. Currently, the U.S. and Europe are continuously engaged in a tug of war, with Denmark directly rejecting Trump's acquisition proposal, leading to a drop in the market last night. Trump claimed at the Davos speech that he would not take military action against Greenland, stating that he has "made concessions," implying that he hopes to negotiate through diplomatic means, which in turn caused the market to rebound.

But has the root problem been solved? Not at all; Trump still wants to acquire Greenland. Given his character, he may change his mind at any time, so this move is merely a temporary relief. Perhaps Trump is also worried about a significant stock market drop, emphasizing that "the stock market will double!"—similar to not being timid. Strategically, rather than betting on Trump's unpredictable behavior, it is better to patiently wait for results. This wave created a false breakout near 98000, inevitably reminding people of the bear market crash in April 2022, and the worst fear is thinking this time is different when it is actually the same.

Finally, there are concerns such as the owner of Trend Research and the 1011 insider whales, a large number of whales are using leverage, which is a huge hidden risk. Back in June 2022, Sun Yuchen almost faced liquidation.

BTC Market: This morning closed below the resistance level. Although there was significant buying volume yesterday on the daily chart, it did not manage to break through. The so-called "efforts without results" makes it difficult to rise and easy to fall, so be cautious about going long. If looking to short, you could set a base position above 90,000 with a stop-loss at 91500, which is not ideal, and the position should be divided into batches. If you already have short positions, you can continue to hold them, as probing down to 84000 is possible.
BTC resistance level: 91000, support level: 87000~88000

26.1.21 Market Analysis

As the "Island Tax" issue escalates, from Trump's current attitude, it seems inevitable. If there is no agreement on the acquisition before June 1st, a 25% tariff will be imposed, and there are threats to impose a 200% tariff on alcoholic beverages such as wine and champagne, triggering the "Sell America" trade. Europe has started selling U.S. debt in an attempt to counteract this, and U.S. stocks have finally also lost stability, with the three major indices plummeting yesterday, dragging down the crypto market as well.

At the same time, the market is concerned about Japan raising interest rates, and last night the yield on Japanese bonds rose sharply, exacerbating the selling sentiment. This year has indeed been a year of macroeconomic instability. The crypto market is undoubtedly a part of the risk assets; once the situation is unclear, there are reasons for a decline. Of course, this is hindsight, as the root cause is that the crypto market has entered a bear market cycle. For instance, in 2022, the U.S. began raising interest rates, and liquidity continued to shrink. Even if we re-enter a rate-cutting cycle this year, the liquidity transmission from top to bottom will certainly have no effect in the short term, or we could say that liquidity has gone to real safe-haven assets. This year has been a tough year for people in the crypto space.

BTC chart: After several days of continuous decline, a small rebound to the 90000~91000 pressure zone is expected today, which could be a position to short. Since it is going to drop, we hope it can test the bottom support of this round at 84000, or even 80000. It would be better to drop deeply before rising. Meanwhile, gold continues to hit new highs, and the main theme for gold this year is to buy on dips.
BTC resistance level: 90000, support level: 88000
$BTC

26.1.16 Market Trend Analysis

The market is once again at a crossroads. Many are still fixated on the false breakout in April 2022 that surged to 48,000, which seems somewhat like trying to find a sword in a boat. That said, there have not been any clear signs of weakening lately; however, the FOMO sentiment in the market is noticeably lacking—most altcoins have not made significant upward moves, with only the privacy sector performing beyond expectations.

The 100,000 mark will undoubtedly be the biggest battleground. If we truly replicate the 30% increase from 2022, reaching around 100,000, there won't be much point in holding out. Interestingly, whales in the circle are betting that BTC will hit 100,000 by the end of the month, and this morning, a whale dumped 10 million USD in premiums to acquire a large amount of call options. The fluctuations in the coming month are likely to be significant—first bouncing to 100,000, then crashing back to 90,000, and afterward slowly oscillating upward; this scenario is not impossible.

At this stage of operation, the most important thing to clarify is the take-profit and stop-loss lines; otherwise, if one is not careful, they might experience the sensation of sliding from the top of the mountain to the foot. From BTC's perspective, it is highly probable that it will oscillate around 95,000 before continuing to rise. After breaking through, the defense position for long positions must also shift upward, and the 94,000 mark is crucial. Unless it really falls below 94,000 and cannot recover, this wave of upward momentum can be considered completely over—this pessimistic scenario cannot be ignored.

In operations, one must leave room for maneuvering; a strategy that allows for both offensive and defensive actions is the safest approach, and position size must be controlled well—don't just go all-in in one direction. As for key price levels, the resistance is seen at 98,000, while the support range is between 94,000 and 95,000.
$BTC

Nikita Bier, Product Manager of X, stated that the X platform has updated its developer policies, banning applications of the 'InfoFi' type that attract users through reward-based posting. This move aims to curb the large volume of low-quality content and reply spam driven by AI. Access to the APIs of related applications has already been revoked, and the platform experience is expected to improve as a result. Terminated developer accounts can contact the official team for assistance in migrating to Threads or Bluesky.

As a result of this announcement, KAITO experienced a short-term drop of approximately 20%.

Yu Hu, founder of Kaito AI, announced that Kaito will gradually phase out Yaps and incentive leaderboards, and launch a new platform called Kaito Studio. Practical experience over the past year has shown that a fully permissionless reward distribution model is unable to address issues of low-quality and spam content under changing platform algorithms and industry conditions. After discussions with X, both parties concluded that this model is unfeasible and cannot meet the needs of high-quality brands, serious content creators, and the platform itself.

The new Kaito Studio will be more aligned with a tiered, traditional marketing platform, where brands will select creators based on clear criteria for collaboration. The platform will offer analytical tools and cover multiple platforms such as X, YouTube, and TikTok, as well as multiple verticals including cryptocurrency, finance, and AI. Over the next few days, collaboration with all project teams will be completed to ensure a smooth transition. This change will not affect other Kaito products, and the KAITO token will continue to play a role within Kaito Studio.
$KAITO

【20260115】Weekly Development Progress Update

Image Generation Platform Optimization: Completed adjustments to core logic for image and video generation, and improved the asset management mechanism.

Points and Membership System Adjustment: Updated and calibrated points rules and membership system to ensure logical consistency.

Process and Stability Fixes: Completed validation of critical workflows and fixed related errors.

26.1.14 It's finally the turn for crypto, isn't it? After 1011, more than three months have passed, and the market index has finally shown some signs of recovery. The current sentiment revival has clear indications—first, the privacy sector surged, followed by meme coins and AI. Remember this pattern: when previously strong sectors lead the way, it signals that risk-seeking capital is entering the market. They're not fools; they wouldn't enter if they didn't expect a better market outlook. But patience is key—many people, constantly engaging in high-frequency trading, have been worn down by the market's grind. Frequent trading is the main reason retail investors lose money.

The current market's main driving logic is connecting to the overflow from global liquidity rotation. One advantage of crypto is its high capital turnover efficiency—once sentiment revives, the rally comes quickly, but it can also fade just as fast. Unlike the stock market, crypto doesn't typically sustain long-term upward trends, and its volatility is relatively high. Overall, Q1 should see a recovery trend—just follow the rhythm. With only two days until the weekend, Bitcoin is expected to continue rising, and a significant rally in altcoins is anticipated over the weekend.

BTC market: Long positions should still be gradually taken off between 98,000 and 103,000. At that point, you can hold onto altcoins patiently. Altcoin rallies typically emerge after the broader market confirms strength, leading to a broad-based surge. Currently, my main altcoins are $LINK, $Virtual, and $PEPE. Short-term, a pullback to around 94,000 is possible—those looking to add positions can wait for such a dip.
BTC resistance: 98,000, support: 94,000
$BTC

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$XMR This kind of thing can't be left blank, always in an upward trend without breaking through

📉 26.1.13 Crypto Market Rant + Hardcore Analysis

The crypto market has turned into such a mess, everyone must be fed up. With over 80,000 people drawing doors, and still drawing doors after reaching 90,000, this phase truly requires immense patience. Especially when compared to other global assets, BTC has dropped 30% over the past six months, while Nasdaq is up 10%, gold is up 20%, and silver is up 30%. While others are discussing AI, defense, and engineering, crypto traders are still talking about "I just arrived," which is truly heartbreaking.

Given the current situation, we're betting on the upcoming rotation driven by liquidity overflow. The crypto market is indeed oversold, so we just have to wait patiently. However, we must also recognize the importance of the RWA sector. In the future, investment choices won't be limited to crypto assets alone, but will increasingly include "cross-market assets," which will inevitably siphon liquidity away from altcoins. If you could go back in time to six months ago, you'd definitely go long on gold rather than crypto—this is the core contradiction in today's crypto market: lacking a sufficiently compelling narrative.

BTC Market: Recently, market skepticism toward the independence of the Federal Reserve has put pressure on US equities and crypto. Yesterday, BTC formed a small door, suggesting it will likely continue to trade sideways. The defensive line for long positions is around 89,000; as long as it doesn't break below the new low, we can continue holding. A brief spike and recovery doesn't count. Given recent volatility, it's best to use low leverage and wide stop-losses to stay in the trade.
BTC Resistance: 94,000, Support: 89,000–90,000
$BTC $我踏马来了

The current market situation is as calm as still water...

Those memes are like fooling idiots.