金融汪搬运号

Simply for everyone's scientific popularization: among various economic data, foreign trade data is the hardest to falsify. The underlying logic lies in the 'bilateral statistics' characteristic of foreign trade—that is, a country's export value necessarily corresponds to another country's import value.

Therefore, although differences in exchange rate conversion or statistical口径 (such as discrepancies between customs data and data from the Ministry of Commerce) objectively exist, from an overall perspective, the possibility of manipulating foreign trade data is actually the smallest.

Of course, we need to view this dialectically: strong performance in China's foreign trade data does not absolutely equate to a robust and trouble-free overall economy, because the health of the economy should be assessed through a comprehensive set of standards. Among these, the health of the private economy is particularly crucial, as it absorbs a massive number of employed individuals, serving not only as a stabilizing force for society but also as the foundation of livelihood for ordinary people.

Breaking News: U.S. Embassy Has Instructed Americans in Israel to Prepare Emergency Plans

This advice applies to Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip: Please stay alert, review your travel plans, and prepare for evacuation.

The Pentagon has issued orders to deploy the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East.

The USS Abraham Lincoln and three missile destroyers have just withdrawn from the South China Sea and are now en route to the Arabian Sea.

The strike group is expected to arrive at its destination in about a week.

Source: @sentdefender

Why is Trump interested in Greenland? — Analyzing the importance of Arctic strategy

Recently, I came across a map from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which delves into the potential impacts of trans-polar shipping routes on the future global landscape.

As ice layers gradually melt, several key shipping routes are emerging, including the Northwest Passage, the Northern Sea Route, the Northeast Passage, and the future trans-polar sea route. These routes will significantly shorten maritime distances between Eurasia and North America, greatly enhancing the Arctic's role in global trade and energy transportation.

The map also provides detailed markings of military base distributions around the Arctic for NATO and Russia: NATO bases are marked with blue diamonds, while Russian bases are indicated with pink diamonds. This distribution clearly illustrates the growing military presence of both sides in the region, with their strategic competition becoming increasingly evident.

This situation involves related countries such as Canada, the United States, Greenland, Iceland, Nordic nations, and Russia, fully demonstrating that the Arctic has transformed from a geographical periphery in the past into a core area integrating shipping, security, and geopolitical rivalry.

【Analysis: U.S. Macro - Consumer Situation】——Apparent Data Shows Strong Performance

Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce officially released the retail consumer data for November 2025; meanwhile, the four major banks (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo) have also all published their Q4 2025 financial reports.

Overall, the U.S. consumer market continues to show strong momentum, with consumers maintaining active spending intentions. Although the overall performance is significantly driven by seasonal factors—after all, November includes Black Friday and Thanksgiving—the notable year-on-year increase still confirms the resilience of consumer spending.

The overall retail data recorded its best performance since July, with a month-on-month growth of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Although this nominal figure is not adjusted for inflation, combined with CPI data, a rough estimate indicates that real consumption of goods and services in November did indeed rise. For specific growth categories, refer to Figure 1: spending on sporting goods, automobiles, home improvement and construction materials, as well as gasoline, all showed upward trends.

Additionally, the major banks' financial reports reflect that their retail customer base remains financially healthy, with overall credit card default rates trending downward and remaining largely below 4%, primarily due to the generally high credit quality of these banks' customers. However, many U.S. consumers who do not meet the thresholds for large banks mainly rely on smaller banks for services. To comprehensively assess the overall credit condition of U.S. society, it is recommended to monitor the Consumer Credit Report regularly published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. According to the latest report (Q3 2025), the overall credit card default rate among U.S. consumers (calculated based on accounts delinquent by 90 days or more) has reached 12%.

The United States is preparing to launch an indefinite visa freeze for 75 countries starting January 21.

The countries included are: Somalia, Russia, Afghanistan, Brazil, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Nigeria, Thailand, and Yemen.

As of now, the U.S. Department of State has not released any official documents or a complete list of countries.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-14/us-freezes-visa-processing-for-dozens-of-countries-fox-reports

January 14, 2026, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges issued notices to adjust the margin requirement ratio, clearly stating that the minimum margin requirement for investors buying securities on margin will be increased from 80% to 100%.

It seems that the speculative atmosphere in China's stock market is picking up. Although the market experienced a slight tremor, it is expected to quickly absorb this news.

According to the latest customs statistics, China's total foreign trade import and export value reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year.

Specific data shows that the export total was 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1%; the import total was 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5%.

Notably, the annual net export value was 8.51 trillion yuan (approximately 1.2 trillion US dollars), accounting for about 6% of GDP. It is expected that foreign trade will contribute around 30% to China's economic growth. These key figures fully demonstrate the extremely important role of foreign trade in China's economic development.

【Gossip】Let me share a heartfelt thought: Artificial Intelligence (AI), as a disruptive technology, has already undeniably and significantly boosted productivity. For this reason, it is rapidly penetrating every industry and niche at a pace surpassing any previous technology in history.

As someone who has long tracked and personally used AI tools, I believe we must clearly define the scope when discussing AI. In other words, whether analyzing the benefits or drawbacks of AI, we need to set clear boundaries. For instance, we should focus on the following dimensions:

1. The reshaping of productivity and even production relations by AI is undoubtedly disruptive. However, does this macroeconomic advantage necessarily translate into comprehensive benefits at the economic structure level?

2. Is the emergence of bubbles in the AI evolution inevitable? If so, where will these bubbles primarily occur—on which levels, in which industries, or even in which specific companies? What chain reactions will these bubbles trigger, and how long will it take to deflate them?

3. How far are we from advancing from today's AI to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)? What exactly is the definition of AGI? Following Agentic AI, Embodied AI has recently become a new trend, especially after the CES conference. How crowded is this field? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the key players? What are their competitive strategies, financial conditions, and valuation levels? Most importantly—what are the specific application scenarios? After all, market size determines everything.

4. Looking at the companies currently leading in the model space, how many will truly survive in the long run? Let’s reflect on the previous internet boom—only a handful of companies ultimately survived, a point worth deep contemplation.

Vanke has adopted a strategy of repeatedly extending the maturity of debts that have already defaulted and are unable to be repaid, a phenomenon that indeed makes one feel it is "a centipede that remains alive even after death."

From the perspective of China's financial market pricing mechanism, this undoubtedly constitutes a very poor example.

The market should break the rigid redemption principle and follow the rule of survival of the fittest—companies should go bankrupt when they should, and restructure when necessary. Only by clearing away those outdated "dust" and entrenched problems that no longer fit the market can we move forward with a lighter burden, creating a healthy environment for other market participants to achieve a complete market cleanup, thereby clarifying market expectations and pricing.

The current situation of repeated delays is indeed unfair to other real estate developers.

In December, the rate of inflation in the United States rose at a slower pace than expected. This is undoubtedly a clearer signal of cooling price growth, following the complicating distortions related to strikes that affected the previous report.

The core CPI increased by 0.2% compared to November, with a year-on-year rise of 2.6%, reaching its lowest level in four years.

【Policy Outlook: Japan Government Plans to Tighten Immigration Policies, Comprehensive Plan Expected to Take Effect in January 2026】

**Tokyo News** — Under Prime Minister Sanae Higashikata, the Japanese government is currently actively coordinating with its ruling coalition to reassess and tighten existing foreign resident and immigration management policies. Specific adjustment plans and details for various visa categories are being urgently developed, with the full comprehensive reform package expected to be finalized by January 2026.

**Background of Immigration Growth and Policy Shift**
Looking back over the past decade, the number of foreign residents in Japan has shown significant growth. From approximately 2.23 million at the end of 2015, it surged to about 3.95 million by June 2025, increasing by 1.7 times. Currently, foreign residents account for about 3% of Japan’s total population. Projections suggest that, if this trend continues, this proportion could exceed 10% by 2070, reaching the average level of OECD countries.

In response to this demographic shift, former Minister of Justice Suzuki Keisuke issued a warning in August 2025, noting that the 10% threshold might arrive earlier than expected. Based on this, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party included a 'quota management' mechanism in their coalition agreement—meaning that when the foreign resident ratio becomes too high, the number of incoming residents will be moderately adjusted.

**Direction of Key Visa Category Adjustments**
Under the framework of strengthened residence management, two core visa categories have become focal points:

1. **Permanent Resident Status (Stricter Requirements):
As of June, there were approximately 930,000 permanent residents, accounting for 23% of all foreign residents—the largest group. Currently, this status grants indefinite residence and unrestricted work rights.
In addition to existing criteria such as 'good conduct,' 'sufficient assets or skills for independent living,' and 'principally residing for ten years,' the government is considering raising income thresholds for applicants and plans to introduce 'a certain level of Japanese language proficiency' as a mandatory requirement.

2. **Engineer/Specialist in Humanities/International Services Visa (Stricter Enforcement on Violations):
As the second-largest visa category, approximately 450,000 people (11%) held this visa as of June, primarily engaged in specialized work such as interpretation and design. However, due to concerns about some visa holders working in non-technical roles, the government plans to implement stricter oversight measures to prevent illegal employment and will impose penalties on employers found violating regulations.

**Synchronized Adjustment of Naturalization Policy**
Additionally, in response to criticism that obtaining Japanese citizenship takes less time than acquiring permanent residency, the government plans to revise the naturalization policy. The current proposal is to extend the required residence period for naturalization from the current 'five years or more' to 'ten years or more,' aligning it with the duration required for permanent residency.

**Linking Social Security and Healthcare Compliance to Visa Approval**
The government also plans to use digital systems to tie social obligations to visa approval:

* **Social Insurance Contributions Linked to Visa Renewal:
A new control system is under development for the National Health Insurance (NHI), which foreign residents staying over three months are required to join. If applicants fail to pay a certain amount of premiums, their visa renewal or amendment applications will be denied. According to a survey by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare across about 150 municipalities, foreign residents’ NHI payment rate is only 63%, significantly lower than the overall rate of 93% among all residents, including Japanese citizens.
* **Data System Upgrade:
The Higashikata administration plans to use the Digital Agency’s network to break down information barriers between the Immigration Services Agency and local governments. The system upgrade project is scheduled to begin in 2026 and will be rolled out nationwide by June 2027, at which point records of unpaid National Pension contributions may also be included in reviews.
* **Significant Reduction in Medical Debt Threshold:
Measures to address unpaid medical bills are also being tightened. Currently, only when outstanding bills exceed 200,000 JPY (approximately 1,300 USD) are they reported to the Immigration Services Agency, but relevant departments are preparing to drastically reduce this threshold to 10,000 JPY (approximately 65 USD). This data will primarily be used to strengthen entry screening for tourists and other short-term visitors.

(Source: Tokyo Metropolitan News Department, Kenji Tatsumi; Lifestyle, Science, and Environment News Department, Haruka Udagawa)

Japan heavily relies on China for rare earth imports; in 2024, over 70% of Japan's rare earth imports came from China.

【Japanese yen sharply depreciates to lowest level since 2024】
According to media reports, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may hold a general election earlier than scheduled.

On Tuesday, the yen fell as much as 0.5% against the U.S. dollar, reaching 158.91 yen, a drop that surpassed the previous historical low of 158.87 yen set in January 2025.

Currently, Japanese officials have intensified warnings about excessive and speculative foreign exchange fluctuations, and the risk of official intervention in the foreign exchange market has once again become a focal point for the market.

I'm not ashamed to admit that the coldest place I've ever been is Beijing in winter. Although I nearly fainted from the biting wind while ice skating at Shichahai, I still have a deep affection for this city, simply because it has the hot pot with copper kettles, lamb ribs, and that sweet and sour candied haws I've always dreamed of.

Every time I visit Beijing, a friend warmly guides me around, showing me the local cuisine and scenic spots; if it's a business trip, the hosting organization also arranges everything very thoughtfully. Once the work is done, whether it's attending a performance, hanging out at a bar, or staying at the hotel sipping tea and reading books, each moment brings its own charm.

Looking back, the economic situation was still good, and everywhere seemed full of vitality and prosperity.

Just checked the destination for my upcoming business trip, and I found the temperature could drop to below minus ten degrees. This suddenly left me at a loss. After all, it's been years since I've been to such a cold place. I'm not sure how to dress appropriately—how can I stay warm enough while still maintaining a professional appearance and looking good?

Right now, all I can think of is big cotton pants...

The number of Russian tourists visiting Hainan increased 11 times from 2023 to 2024, making Hainan the largest foreign tourist group in the Hawaiian Islands, with at least eight flights daily from various parts of Russia to Hainan Island during peak tourist seasons.

I'd like to share some personal observations and reflections: I think the 'Article' feature on X platform is exceptionally well-designed. For me, it's not just a function—it's more like a dedicated notebook or memo pad for serious content, evoking the experience of the old blog era.

Thanks to this section, content with depth and thoughtful perspective doesn't get instantly lost in the endless stream of information.

Objectively speaking, if the sole goal is immediate virality, this might not be the most efficient tool; however, its 'long-tail effect' holds significant long-term value for creators dedicated to serious, in-depth content.

【Silver Price Hits All-Time High: Markets Paying for Systemic Risks】

Silver prices have just broken through the historical high of $85 per ounce, with a 19% surge witnessed in just 12 days. Looking back to January 2025, when silver was only $29 per ounce, it has now reached $85 per ounce, representing an astonishing 180% increase within a year.

This is not merely portfolio diversification—it's more like panic buying disguised as investment. When silver prices rise so rapidly, institutional investors aren't simply chasing returns; they are actively hedging against the risk of currency collapse.

Multiple factors have contributed to the surge in silver prices:
- Despite persistently high inflation, the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates;
- Geopolitical concerns over Iran potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz;
- The $700 million cash smuggling case in Minneapolis;
- Trump's global threats of crackdowns;
- And the gold price reaching $4,500, which makes it unaffordable for average investors, making silver the "poor man's doomsday safe haven."

Although industrial demand from solar panels, electronics, and medical devices does exist, this may only explain 20% of the price increase. The remaining 80% is driven by one fear: "What if the U.S. dollar collapses?"

Comparing to the 2008–2011 period: when trust in the financial system collapsed, silver prices soared from $10 to $50. We are now witnessing the same pattern replaying, and even faster. The market is reflecting systemic risks that major stock indices are ignoring.

The current gold-silver ratio is 56:1, compared to a historical average of 65:1. This indicates that silver is outperforming gold—a situation that typically arises only when people expect either extreme industrial prosperity or total collapse.

Source: Trading Economics, JM Bullion