The Cryptonomist

Investors enter 2026 weighing a complex crypto market outlook as Bitcoin, regulation, and tokenization converge to redefine how risk and liquidity move onchain.

Bitcoin at the center of a new crypto market structure

Throughout 2025, Bitcoin remained the primary driver of crypto markets, shaped by macro forces and rising institutional participation. However, the channels through which demand, liquidity, and risk are expressed have shifted. The cycle feels less euphoric than prior booms, yet structurally more intricate and data driven.

As a macro asset, Bitcoin continues to anchor risk sentiment in an environment of mixed economic growth, persistent inflation, and episodic geopolitical shocks. This backdrop has produced compressed volatility ranges punctuated by sharp, narrative-led moves. Moreover, market behavior appears more measured, with fewer extreme blow-off tops.

Institutional vehicles now play a decisive role in price discovery. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s IBIT, together with digital asset treasury buyers such as Strategy, accounted for enormous net capital inflows through 2024 and 2025. That said, the impact on headline prices has been weaker than many expected.

In 2025 alone, ETFs and Strategy collectively absorbed nearly $44 billion of net spot demand for bitcoins. Yet price performance lagged the scale of flows, exposing how supply dynamics have evolved. The most likely source of marketable supply has been long-term holders monetizing gains accumulated over multiple cycles.

Evidence comes from Bitcoin Coin Days Destroyed, a metric tracking how long coins sit idle before moving. In 4Q 2025, this indicator reached its highest level on record for a single quarter. However, this turnover is happening just as crypto competes with strong equity markets, AI-driven growth stories, and record price action in gold and other precious metals.

The outcome is a market capable of absorbing enormous inflows without generating the reflexive upside seen in earlier cycles. Despite these headwinds, systemic risk indicators remain contained, stablecoin liquidity is at all-time highs, and regulatory clarity is improving, leaving the overall structure broadly constructive.

Innovation is accelerating across infrastructure, DeFi, and tokenization, but complexity is rising in parallel. Moreover, greater complexity can obscure hidden fragilities, especially in a macro regime where supportive monetary policy is no longer guaranteed.

Macro conditions, liquidity and the policy path into 2026

Looking into 2026, macroeconomic trends and liquidity conditions will remain central to digital asset performance. Economic growth is expected to stay modest, with the U.S. likely outperforming regions such as Europe and the UK. However, inflation is projected to remain sticky, constraining policy flexibility.

Central banks are still anticipated to cut interest rates, with notable exceptions such as Japan and Australia. However, the pace of easing is slower than in 2025. Market pricing implies U.S. policy rates drifting toward the low 3% range by year-end 2026, alongside a pause in quantitative tightening, or balance sheet reductions.

Liquidity remains one of the most relevant leading indicators for risk assets, crypto included. While quantitative tightening in the U.S. has effectively ended, there is still no clear roadmap toward renewed quantitative easing without a negative growth shock. That said, investors are watching for any shift in forward guidance.

Uncertainty around leadership at the Federal Reserve adds another layer. Chair Jerome Powell‘s term expires in May 2026, raising the prospect of a policy transition that could alter liquidity management and risk appetite. The risk skew is asymmetric: significant easing is more likely to follow adverse economic news than arrive as a benign tailwind.

Persistently elevated inflation remains the main obstacle to a more supportive macro backdrop for digital assets. A genuine goldilocks scenario would require progress on several fronts at once: improved trade relations, lower consumer price inflation, sustained confidence in high levels of AI-related investment, and a de-escalation of key geopolitical conflicts.

ETF flows, Strategy positioning and shifting sentiment

Flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and the positioning of Strategy continue to serve as important gauges of institutional sentiment. However, the information content of these signals is evolving. ETF inflows in 2025 were lower than in 2024, and digital asset treasuries can no longer issue equity at the same accretive premiums to net asset value.

Speculative positioning has also cooled. Options markets linked to vehicles such as IBIT and Strategy experienced a sharp collapse in net delta exposure during late-2025, falling even below levels seen during the April 2025 tariff turmoil, when risk assets were aggressively sold.

Without a renewed shift toward risk-on sentiment, it will be difficult for these vehicles to drive another powerful upside leg in Bitcoin as they did in earlier phases of the cycle. Moreover, this tempering of speculative leverage contributes to a more stable, if less explosive, trading environment.

Regulation, U.S. market structure and global spillovers

Regulatory clarity has transitioned from a hypothetical catalyst to a concrete driver of market structure. The passage of stablecoin legislation in the U.S. is already reshaping onchain dollar liquidity, providing firmer foundations for payment rails and trading venues. Attention is now shifting to the CLARITY Act and associated reforms.

If enacted, this framework would define oversight of digital commodities and exchanges more cleanly, potentially accelerating capital formation and reinforcing the U.S. position as a leading crypto hub. However, the details of implementation will matter for both centralized venues and onchain protocols.

The global implications are significant. Other jurisdictions are closely observing U.S. outcomes as they calibrate their own rulebooks. Moreover, the emerging regulatory map will influence where capital, developers, and innovation clusters, shaping long-term competitive dynamics across regions.

Low volatility, Bitcoin dominance and an unusual cycle profile

One of the standout features of the current environment is unusually low crypto volatility, even during periods when new all-time highs have been reached. This departs meaningfully from prior cycle behavior, where peak prices typically coincided with elevated realized volatility.

Recently, new highs were recorded while Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility hovered in the 20–30% range. Historically, such levels are associated with market cycle troughs rather than peaks. Moreover, this calm has persisted despite ongoing macro and policy uncertainty.

Bitcoin market cap dominance reinforces the signal. Throughout 2025, dominance averaged above 60%, with no sustained breakdown toward sub-50% levels that once marked speculative late-cycle excess. Whether this pattern reflects a more structurally mature market, or simply deferred volatility waiting to be released, remains one of the most important open questions for 2026.

Tokenization of real-world assets and the next structural wave

The tokenization of real-world assets is quietly emerging as one of crypto’s most important long-term structural stories. Over a single year, tokenized financial assets expanded from roughly $5.6 billion to nearly $19 billion, moving beyond Treasury funds into commodities, private credit, and public equities.

As regulatory postures shift from adversarial to more collaborative, incumbent financial institutions are increasingly experimenting with onchain distribution and settlement. Moreover, the tokenization of widely held instruments such as large-cap U.S. equities could unlock new pools of global demand and onchain liquidity.

For many investors, the key question is what the tokenization of financial assets ultimately means for market plumbing and price discovery. If successful, this transition could become a defining growth catalyst, similar to how ICOs or automated market makers powered earlier eras of crypto expansion.

DeFi tokenomics, protocol fees and value accrual

The evolution of token economics within decentralized finance is another potential catalyst, albeit more targeted. Many DeFi governance tokens launched in prior cycles were intentionally conservative, avoiding explicit value accrual mechanisms such as protocol fee sharing to sidestep regulatory uncertainty.

That stance now appears to be changing. Proposals such as Uniswap‘s move toward activating protocol fees signal a broader shift toward models emphasizing sustainable cash flows and long-term participant alignment. However, these experiments are still in their early innings and will be closely scrutinized by both investors and policymakers.

If these new designs prove successful, they could help reprice a subset of DeFi assets away from pure momentum narratives and toward more durable valuation frameworks. Moreover, improved incentive structures may better support future growth, developer engagement, and the resilience of onchain liquidity.

Setting the stage for 2026

As 2026 begins, the crypto market outlook is defined by the tension between macro uncertainty and accelerating onchain innovation. Bitcoin remains the core lens through which risk sentiment is expressed, but it no longer operates in isolation from broader structural forces.

Liquidity conditions, institutional positioning, regulatory reforms, and the maturation of both asset tokenization and DeFi tokenomics are increasingly intertwined. Sentiment is lower than a year ago, leverage has been flushed out, and much of the sector’s structural progress is occurring outside the spotlight.

While tail risks remain elevated, particularly on the macro side, the underlying foundation of the industry appears more resilient than in previous cycles. The sector is no longer in its infancy, yet it continues to evolve rapidly. The groundwork laid in 2025 and 2026 is likely to shape the contours of crypto’s next major expansion, even if the path forward remains uneven.

In a significant leadership move for U.S. market oversight, the Securities and Exchange Commission has appointed sec general counsel J. Russell McGranahan to head its legal office.

SEC appoints Rusty McGranahan as top legal officer

The Securities and Exchange Commission announced on Jan. 15, 2026, that J. Russell “Rusty” McGranahan has been named SEC General Counsel, becoming the agency’s chief legal officer with responsibility for advising the Office of the Chairman, Commissioners, and staff across the organization.

As General Counsel, Mr. McGranahan will oversee the provision of legal expertise and guidance on complex regulatory, enforcement, and policy matters affecting the U.S. capital markets. Moreover, he will play a central role in shaping the Commission’s rulemaking and oversight agenda.

Jeffrey Finnell, who had been serving as Acting General Counsel, will remain at the Commission as Deputy General Counsel, ensuring continuity in the agency’s legal leadership during this transition.

Chairman Atkins highlights experience and priorities

SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins praised the appointment, emphasizing his longstanding relationship with Mr. McGranahan and his extensive background in securities and M&A law. However, Atkins also stressed that prior public company and government service as general counsel will be crucial for the Commission’s current priorities.

Atkins noted that he expects Rusty to apply his experience immediately across a wide range of initiatives, including efforts to strengthen U.S. capital markets and advance a robust rulemaking agenda. That said, the Chairman also underscored the importance of leadership capable of navigating rapid changes in technology and finance.

Chairman Atkins separately thanked Jeff Finnell for his tenure as Acting General Counsel, describing his judgment and deep expertise in securities laws as invaluable to the SEC. Moreover, he welcomed Finnell’s continued service as Deputy General Counsel as the agency moves forward with its policy and enforcement work.

McGranahan’s vision for innovation and capital formation

Mr. McGranahan said it is an honor to join the SEC and the Chairman’s senior team during a period of rapid technological and financial innovation. He indicated that he looks forward to working with SEC colleagues to embrace new developments while maintaining America’s preeminence in financial services and capital formation.

According to McGranahan, the sec general counsel role will require balancing innovation with investor protection. However, he emphasized that responsible regulation can foster growth in the capital markets while preserving confidence in U.S. financial infrastructure.

Extensive legal and leadership background

Mr. McGranahan’s career spans 30 years across leading companies and law firms, providing a deep legal counsel background in both private and public sectors. Most recently, he served as General Counsel of the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), where he helped set the course for several key initiatives during the first 10 months of the current Administration.

Prior to GSA, he was General Counsel of Focus Financial Partners, a wealth management firm. He spent nine years with Focus Financial, leading the legal function through a period of explosive growth, including its IPO in 2018 and a going private transaction in 2023. Moreover, his tenure there highlights his experience in complex capital markets transactions and corporate governance.

Before joining Focus Financial, Mr. McGranahan spent nine years with BlackRock, where he served as Managing Director, M&A Counsel, and Corporate Secretary. That said, his time as a senior BlackRock managing director further solidified his expertise in large-scale asset management and strategic transactions.

Early career and academic credentials

Earlier in his career, Mr. McGranahan worked at prominent law firms Skadden, Arps and White & Case. For three years, he was based in Eastern Europe, where he advised on some of the region’s first public offerings, gaining cross-border capital markets experience that remains relevant to global regulatory work.

Mr. McGranahan earned his J.D. from Yale Law School and his B.A., summa cum laude, in Economics and Politics from the Catholic University of America. He has also earned the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation, adding a rigorous analytical finance credential to his legal training.

Significance of the SEC leadership appointment

This SEC leadership appointment underscores the Commission’s focus on combining market expertise, regulatory experience, and international perspective at the top of its legal function. Moreover, the combination of public sector and private market roles positions McGranahan to advise on both innovative financial products and traditional securities regulation.

With the post last reviewed or updated on Jan. 15, 2026, the Commission signals a continued commitment to responsive, expert legal guidance as U.S. securities markets navigate evolving technologies, complex transactions, and heightened scrutiny from investors and policymakers alike.

Institutional and retail traders will soon gain broader access to cme crypto futures as new contracts tied to leading altcoins prepare to launch on a regulated venue.

CME Group to launch Cardano, Chainlink and Stellar futures

CME Group, the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, announced plans to expand its regulated cryptocurrency derivatives offering with new Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK) and Stellar (Lumens) futures. The new contracts are scheduled to go live on February 9, pending regulatory review.

These launches deepen CME Group’s presence in regulated crypto derivatives and give investors more ways to hedge or gain exposure to altcoin price moves. Moreover, the products are designed to appeal to both institutional users and active retail traders who already access the exchange‘s digital asset suite.

Contract sizes and micro futures structure

Market participants will be able to trade both standard and micro futures contracts across the three new assets. CME Group will list ADA futures sized at 100,000 ADA alongside Micro ADA futures of 10,000 ADA per contract, creating a tiered structure for different account sizes.

Similarly, the exchange will offer LINK futures of 5,000 LINK and Micro LINK futures of 250 LINK. However, liquidity providers and sophisticated traders can still concentrate flow in the larger contracts, while smaller traders may favor the micro format for position sizing.

For Stellar’s token, CME Group will introduce Lumens futures with a contract size of 250,000 Lumens and Micro Lumens futures of 12,500 Lumens. That said, the unified structure across ADA, LINK and Lumens aims to simplify margining and risk management for multi-asset strategies.

Client demand and market maturation

Explaining the move, Giovanni Vicioso, CME Group Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products, highlighted strong client interest in risk-management tools. He noted that, given crypto’s record growth over the last year, customers want trusted, regulated instruments to manage price risk and expand market exposure.

“With these new micro- and larger-size Cardano, Chainlink and Stellar futures contracts, market participants will now have greater choice with enhanced flexibility and more capital-efficiencies,” Vicioso said, framing the new crypto futures expansion as a direct response to institutional and professional demand.

Bob Fitzsimmons, Executive Vice President at Wedbush Securities Inc., said the firm recognizes the continued maturing of regulated crypto futures listings. Moreover, he confirmed Wedbush will keep supporting CME Group’s product expansion for both retail and institutional clients, underlining growing brokerage backing.

Martin Franchi, CEO of NinjaTrader, called the development a “watershed moment” for the futures industry. He argued that digital assets are reaching a global inflection point as they become more mainstream and integrated into investor portfolios, with futures trading gaining popularity among retail investors.

Justin Young, CEO and Co-Founder of Volatility Shares, added that CME Group “has yet again set the standard in innovation” with these offerings. As one of the world’s largest traders of crypto futures, Volatility Shares is eager to see more regulated financial products available for trading and risk management.

Positioning within CME’s broader cryptocurrency suite

These new products will join CME Group’s rapidly expanding cme cryptocurrency suite, which already includes Bitcoin, Ether, XRP and Solana futures, as well as options on futures. Together with existing benchmarks, the Cardano, Chainlink and Stellar listings reinforce the exchange’s role in institutional digital asset price discovery.

For traders already engaged in cardano futures trading or similar altcoin strategies on other venues, the availability of ADA, LINK and Lumens contracts on a major U.S. derivatives exchange could shift volume toward centrally cleared, regulated markets. However, how quickly liquidity builds will depend on market maker participation and client hedging needs.

Record 2025 trading metrics underline demand

CME Group underscored that the launch comes on the back of strong 2025 activity across its digital asset instruments. The company reported record futures and options average daily volume (ADV) of 278,300 contracts, equal to $12 billion notional, alongside record average open interest (OI) of 313,900 contracts, or $26.4 billion notional.

In futures alone, CME Group reached record ADV of 272,200 contracts, representing $11.7 billion notional, and record average OI of 253,600 contracts, equal to $21.4 billion notional. Moreover, options activity climbed, with record options ADV of 4,100 contracts ($231 million notional) and average OI of 60,400 contracts ($5 billion notional).

Accessing the new CME crypto futures offering

The new listings in the cme crypto futures segment are designed to provide more precise hedging tools and capital-efficient exposure to ADA, LINK and Lumens. That said, traders will still need to evaluate margin requirements, liquidity conditions and contract specifications before deploying complex strategies.

Market participants can find additional technical details, contract specs and educational resources on CME Group’s dedicated crypto products portal at www.cmegroup.com/cryptolaunch. As demand for structured crypto risk management grows, CME Group appears positioned to capture a larger share of both retail and institutional derivatives flow.

In summary, the February 9 launch of Cardano, Chainlink and Stellar contracts broadens CME Group’s altcoin coverage, adds new micro and standard futures sizes, and builds on record 2025 trading volumes in regulated digital asset derivatives.

Binance Research’s latest crypto outlook frames 2025 as a year of structural progress and sets the stage for a more adoption-led 2026.

How 2025 reshaped crypto market structure

Binance Research’s full-year report reviews what defined crypto markets in 2025 and outlines key themes for 2026. Moreover, the study focuses on structural shifts rather than short-term price action, highlighting clearer regulatory frameworks, expanding institutional access, and the rise of stablecoins as core settlement infrastructure.

According to the report, DeFi continued to mature into a cash-flow generating sector, while tokenization advanced from pilot experiments to production-grade workflows. That said, the authors stress that the most important signals came from usage tied to real economic activity rather than speculative bursts.

2025: structural gains amid macro-driven volatility

In 2025, total crypto market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion for the first time, while Bitcoin set a new all-time high of $126,000. However, macro uncertainty around monetary policy, trade tensions, and geopolitical risk drove choppy trading conditions across digital assets.

Binance Research describes a year of “data fog” shaped by a new U.S. administration, the Liberation Day tariff shock, and a government shutdown that obscured key economic signals. Over the year, total market value swung between about $2.4 trillion and $4.2 trillion, ultimately ending 2025 down roughly 7.9%.

The optimistic interpretation is that infrastructure, access, and rulemaking advanced even when prices did not. Moreover, many of the strongest growth pockets were linked to practical usage: institutional-grade access channels, compliant settlement rails, and applications building recurring revenue streams instead of one-off hype cycles.

Industrialization: from raw activity to economic relevance

The report frames 2025 as a year of industrialization, where markets increasingly rewarded robust infrastructure and credible access routes. Regulatory clarity, particularly around stablecoins, combined with the expansion of regulated investment products to broaden participation by institutions and sophisticated investors.

At the same time, crypto’s economic center of gravity shifted toward compliance-friendly building blocks. These included stablecoins for settlement, tokenized treasuries for on-chain cash management, and applications designed to monetize recurring flows. However, simple activity metrics became weaker signals of value.

Binance Research repeatedly distinguishes between raw usage and economic relevance. What matters, the report argues, is whether a network or protocol can capture recurring value, generate durable fees or revenue, and support reliable settlement and trading services.

Bitcoin increasingly trades as a macro asset

Bitcoin’s 2025 performance underscored its evolution into a macro asset held through regulated channels. BTC maintained roughly 58% to 60% market dominance and a capitalization near $1.8 trillion, even as more demand and liquidity flowed through off-chain financial products.

Two data points in the report anchor this shift. First, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw over $21 billion in net inflows, highlighting strong bitcoin institutional demand. Second, corporate holdings surpassed 1.1 million BTC, equal to about 5.5% of total supply, underscoring the role of treasuries and balance sheets.

By contrast, on-chain activity softened: active addresses fell around 16% year over year, and transaction counts stayed below prior cycle peaks. However, network security continued to strengthen, with hash rate exceeding 1 zettahash per second and mining difficulty rising about 36% year over year. In sum, Bitcoin is increasingly defined by its role in macro portfolios and regulated markets rather than purely by base-layer usage.

DeFi’s blue-chip turn and the rise of tokenized assets

DeFi in 2025 moved further away from incentives-led growth and closer to capital efficiency and compliance. Total value locked stabilized near $124.4 billion, while capital composition shifted toward stablecoins and yield-bearing assets instead of inflationary tokens.

Economic output from DeFi strengthened as protocol revenue reached $16.2 billion, a level Binance Research notes is comparable to major traditional financial institutions. Moreover, the report highlights that this revenue came increasingly from sustainable activity rather than temporary liquidity mining programs.

Tokenization also shifted from narrative to core collateral. RWA total value locked climbed to $17 billion and surpassed DEXs, driven by tokenized treasuries and equities. This evolution changes what backs on-chain finance: when collateral consists of yield-bearing, real-world instruments, DeFi becomes more anchored to repeatable financial demand.

The report further observes that on-chain execution continued gaining relevance. DEX-to-CEX spot trading ratios peaked near 20%, signaling that decentralized venues are now meaningful execution hubs for specific flows. However, ratios remain cyclical, and long-term growth depends on deeper stablecoin liquidity and more liquid tokenized collateral.

Stablecoins solidify as internet-native fiat rails

Among all crypto segments, stablecoins were the clearest mainstream success story of 2025. Binance Research portrays them as having matured into default settlement rails for both on-chain and cross-border activity.

Key data from the report include total stablecoin market capitalization rising nearly 50% to more than $305 billion. Daily transaction volumes averaged about $3.54 trillion, while annual transaction volume reached $33 trillion, compared to approximately $16 trillion for Visa.

Regulatory clarity accelerated, led by the U.S. GENIUS Act, while issuer competition expanded beyond the historic duopoly. In particular, BUIDL, PYUSD, RLUSD, USD1, USDf, and USDtB each surpassed $1 billion in market capitalization. Moreover, the report argues that stablecoins now serve as both a medium of exchange in crypto markets and a practical rail for payments and fintech applications.

By abstracting away volatility, stablecoins allow users and businesses to leverage crypto infrastructure without directly holding more volatile tokens. That said, ongoing compliance standards and reserve transparency will remain central to sustaining trust in these “internet fiat” instruments.

Layer-1 and layer-2 networks: monetization over raw throughput

Across layer-1 ecosystems, 2025 reinforced that transaction counts alone are insufficient to support value. Many networks struggled to convert activity into fees, value capture, or durable token performance, while others differentiated through recurring monetizable flows such as trading, payments, and institutional settlement.

Ethereum remained dominant in developer activity, DeFi liquidity, and aggregate value. However, fee compression driven by rollup execution weighed on ETH performance relative to BTC. Moreover, cheaper blockspace forced attention toward where economic value actually accrues in the stack.

Solana sustained high usage, expanded stablecoin supply, and generated meaningful protocol revenue even after speculative surges faded. It also secured U.S. spot ETF approval, improving institutional accessibility. Meanwhile, BNB Chain benefited from strong retail transaction demand and market narratives, which supported large stablecoin settlement flows and RWA deployments. The report identifies BNB as the best-performing major crypto asset in 2025.

Layer-2 networks accounted for more than 90% of Ethereum-related execution in 2025, aided by upgrades that reduced data availability costs. Activity and fees concentrated among a small number of rollups such as Base and Arbitrum, while many others faded as incentives waned. However, fragmentation across more than 100 rollups and uneven sequencer decentralization remain constraints.

These dynamics reinforce a core 2026 theme: as blockspace becomes cheaper and more abundant, value capture may migrate “upstream” to the application layer that owns the user relationship. In this context, wallets, aggregators, DEXs, and specialized front ends could capture a larger share of revenue than the underlying blockspace providers.

2026 crypto outlook: risk reset and adoption-led growth

The report’s 2026 crypto outlook centers on a more constructive policy backdrop and a shift toward adoption-driven growth. Binance Research argues that macro conditions, product innovation, and market structure are aligning in ways that may favor verifiable and compliant systems.

On the macro side, the authors highlight a potential “policy triumvirate” of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus via cash and tax refunds, and deregulation. Historically, when financial conditions loosen, risk assets often benefit, and crypto has been highly sensitive to global liquidity cycles. Moreover, the report flags the possible creation of a U.S. Strategic BTC Reserve as a notable policy catalyst.

On the product and market-structure front, Binance Research expects less reliance on single, sweeping narratives. Instead, it outlines several areas where durable usage could concentrate: PayFi, institutionalization of on-chain markets, application-layer value capture, “intelligent” finance, and prediction markets.

PayFi, institutional workflows and value capture

PayFi refers to the convergence of neobanks and wallets, where yield-bearing stablecoins underpin new consumer financial applications. In this model, everyday users interact with familiar interfaces while on-chain infrastructure and stablecoins power yield and settlement in the background.

Institutionalization is another major theme, with on-chain money markets, tokenized treasuries, and RWA-based settlement expected to be embedded more deeply into institutional workflows. That said, successful deployments will depend on compliance, integration with existing systems, and demonstrable efficiency gains.

As blockspace costs fall, Binance Research expects more value to accrue to applications that directly control user relationships. Wallets, aggregators, DEXs, and prediction markets may capture a larger portion of fees and revenue, while base-layer protocols function increasingly as commoditized infrastructure.

Intelligent finance and prediction markets

The report also points to the rise of “intelligent” and agentic finance, where AI-driven execution, automated workflows, and new trust-tooling frameworks coordinate capital. However, regulatory and governance questions around autonomous agents will need careful navigation.

Prediction markets are highlighted as a complementary way to price information, offering an alternative to opinion-driven narratives. By aggregating capital-weighted views on events, these markets can potentially improve decision-making for both individuals and institutions, especially in uncertain macro environments.

Conclusion: foundations for the next phase of adoption

Across 2025, crypto continued to progress despite macro headwinds and volatile price action. Bitcoin demand increasingly flowed through regulated channels, stablecoins scaled into core settlement infrastructure, DeFi consolidated as a revenue-generating sector, and tokenization moved closer to production-grade finance.

Looking ahead to 2026, Binance Research’s crypto outlook builds on these foundations: greater institutional integration, deeper application-layer adoption, and a macro setup that could turn more supportive. In this framework, systems that are verifiable, compliant, and built around recurring utility appear best positioned for the next phase of crypto’s evolution.

Lawmakers abruptly delayed work on a landmark crypto bill as deep rifts emerged between major exchanges, trade groups, and traditional finance interests.

Senate Banking Committee halts markup after last-minute rupture

Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott announced Wednesday evening that he was postponing a long-planned markup of comprehensive digital asset legislation reshaping U.S. market structure rules. The decision arrived just hours after Coinbase told lawmakers it could no longer back the package.

The 278-page proposal had been slated for committee consideration on Thursday, capping months of bipartisan talks aimed at delivering regulatory clarity for crypto and related products. However, the abrupt schedule change underscored how fragile consensus remains around any U.S. cryptocurrency market structure framework.

Scott said in a statement that he had spoken with industry leaders, financial sector executives, and colleagues in both parties. Moreover, he stressed that all sides remain engaged and negotiating in good faith, even as the legislative path forward grows more complicated.

Coinbase flags tokenized equities and DeFi provisions

Industry tensions spiked Wednesday afternoon as revised draft amendments circulated among lobbyists, lawyers, and advocacy groups. Critics warned that the changes would tilt the crypto market structure bill toward big banks and legacy financial institutions at the expense of start-ups and open-source projects.

Concerns focused on new stablecoin yield restrictions and tokenization language that, according to detractors, would curb innovation around blockchain-based assets. In particular, opponents argued the text would make it easier for traditional banks to shut out non-bank competitors offering crypto-linked yield products.

Around 4:00 p.m., Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly announced the company was withdrawing support. In a post on X, he cited what he called a de facto tokenized equities ban and stringent DeFi regulatory concerns that could give the government expansive access to on-chain and off-chain financial records.

Armstrong also objected to provisions that, in his view, would significantly weaken the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The amendments risked making the CFTC subordinate to the Securities and Exchange Commission, he argued, upsetting a delicate balance between the two primary U.S. market regulators.

Draft language targeting rewards paid on stablecoins drew some of the harshest criticism. According to Armstrong, those changes would effectively allow banks to tamp down competing yield products, locking in their advantage under the banner of consumer protection.

“We appreciate all the hard work by members of the Senate to reach a bipartisan outcome, but this version would be materially worse than the current status quo,” Armstrong wrote. “We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill.” However, he added that Coinbase remained open to renewed talks to achieve a better legislative outcome.

Other major firms rally behind continuing the process

Coinbase’s break with lawmakers threatened to derail the markup entirely by signaling that industry consensus had collapsed. That said, several other large players moved quickly to reassure senators that they still viewed the process as essential, even if the text remained flawed.

Venture and trading firms including a16z, Paradigm, and Ripple, as well as infrastructure and payments companies like Circle and Kraken, issued statements supporting continued work on the bill. Their messages emphasized that engagement, rather than abandonment, offered the best route to fix problems in the draft.

Trade associations such as Coin Center and the Digital Chamber also backed moving ahead with negotiations. Moreover, they urged senators not to interpret Coinbase’s stance as a reason to retreat from the broader project of crafting a durable U.S. framework for digital assets.

Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi underscored that point in a post on X, arguing that real progress requires persistence through difficult bargaining. “It is easy to walk away when a process gets difficult. What is hard and what actually matters is continuing to show up, working through disagreements, and building consensus in a system designed to require it,” he said.

The flurry of endorsements aimed to shore up support among undecided senators who might otherwise view Coinbase withdraws support as a signal that the effort was doomed. However, the divisions laid bare on Wednesday suggested that any final compromise will require more extensive redrafting.

Legislative calendar pressure and next steps for negotiations

In his statement announcing the delay, Scott reiterated that “everyone remains at the table working in good faith.” Yet he offered no clear timeline for when the senate banking committee might reschedule the markup, leaving lobbyists and stakeholders guessing about the next move.

The Senate is set to be out of session next week for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, reducing near-term floor and committee time. At the same time, the Senate Agriculture Committee had already decided to postpone its own related markup, which was also originally scheduled for Thursday.

Whether the Banking Committee’s postponement will cascade into further delays for agriculture-focused digital asset work remains uncertain. However, the same core questions around regulatory turf, bank competition, and decentralized finance oversight are likely to dominate both committees’ discussions when negotiations resume.

As lawmakers and industry leaders return to the table, the fate of the current crypto bill framework will hinge on whether they can reconcile demands for innovation with calls for investor protections and systemic safeguards.

For now, the episode highlights both the urgency and the difficulty of passing U.S. rules for digital assets. The clash over stablecoin yields, tokenization, and agency authority has exposed fault lines that will shape every future attempt to define what is the crypto bill that industry and regulators can ultimately live with.

Investor fatigue and rising skepticism deepened in 2025 as a massive crypto wipeout reshaped perceptions of risk across the digital asset market.

Over 11 million crypto tokens vanished in 2025

Last year marked the largest purge of new crypto projects in the industry’s history, underlining how saturated the market had become with short-lived assets and speculative bets.

According to a CoinGecko report published on January 12, more than half of all cryptocurrencies launched over the past five years are now inactive. Moreover, 2025 alone accounted for more than 85% of all recorded project failures.

The study examined 20.2 million GeckoTerminal token listings introduced between mid-2021 and the end of 2026. Of these, 11.6 million tokens, or 53.2%, effectively died during 2025, making it a historic outlier for attrition in the digital asset space.

The scale of these crypto project failures illustrates how quickly many new listings disappeared from trading activity or investor interest. However, it also highlights how low-friction issuance tools and aggressive speculation distorted the apparent growth of the sector.

Low-effort launches and meme coin frenzy drove failures

2025 saw more than eight times as many project failures as 2024, a spike that coincided with an explosion in ultra-low-effort meme coins, pump-and-dump launches, and automated token factories across multiple chains.

Networks such as Solana (SOL), Base, and BNB were particularly flooded during the 2025 cycle. Many of the new tokens listed there survived only briefly and registered minimal liquidity or trading depth before activity evaporated.

Analyst Shaun Paul Lee attributed the wave of failures largely to launch platforms that slashed the cost and complexity of issuing coins. In his view, launchpads like pump.fun created conditions where thousands of experimental or purely speculative tokens could appear daily.

These launchpad enabled tokens often recorded only a handful of trades before fading entirely. That said, the same infrastructure that fueled the meme coin explosion also made it harder for investors to distinguish credible projects from opportunistic cash grabs.

Lee argued that the 2025 cycle showed how a powerful crypto wipeout can follow periods when issuance grows faster than transparency, due diligence, or user education. This structural mismatch helped turn many new listings into statistical noise rather than sustainable ecosystems.

Q4 2025 became the worst quarter on record

The report singles out the final quarter of 2025 as the most destructive period for new crypto tokens. In only three months, 7.7 million tokens failed, representing roughly 35% of all token deaths recorded since 2021.

One of the key triggers was a violent market event on October 10, when a liquidation cascade erased $19 billion in leveraged positions in a single day. Moreover, Lee described it as the largest deleveraging event the industry has ever seen.

The shock accelerated losses for thinly traded tokens and fragile projects that depended on speculative flows. Many assets tied to pump and dump schemes or heavily leveraged bets simply collapsed, never recovering liquidity or user interest after the cascade.

In comparison, 2021 looked relatively benign. The same CoinGecko analysis counted only 2,584 project failures that year, before the number jumped dramatically to 1.3 million in 2024 and then soared again in 2025.

Market quality and trader sentiment under pressure

The sharp escalation in dead projects has left traders uneasy about overall market quality. However, the data also reflects how easily superficial narratives and quick-profit speculation can crowd out utility-focused development.

Many observers fear that the sheer volume of abandoned tokens has made the landscape harder to navigate, as credible teams compete for attention with short-lived experiments and aggressive promotional campaigns.

The dead cryptocurrencies report further notes that retail participation is waning. For instance, crypto YouTube viewership has dropped to its lowest point since early 2021, signaling fatigue with bots, hype-driven channels, and predatory tactics.

Moreover, this decline in engagement suggests that many users are stepping back to reassess risk rather than chase the latest hot listing. Traders appear increasingly wary of markets dominated by schemes that offer little real innovation or long-term value.

In summary, the 2025 wipeout of more than 11 million tokens underscored the risks of frictionless issuance, excessive leverage, and speculative manias, while reigniting debate over how to restore trust and quality in the crypto ecosystem.

In a renewed show of optimism for digital assets, Changpeng Zhao argues that the bitcoin price reaching $200,000 is now largely a question of timing.

CZ links bitcoin’s upside to policy shifts and market confidence

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ, reiterated that Bitcoin is on track to hit $200,000, calling this outcome effectively inevitable over the long term. He attributed the cryptocurrency’s growth potential to easing regulatory pressure and deeper integration into global financial markets, arguing that these forces will embed Bitcoin more firmly within the worldwide economy.

Zhao directly tied Bitcoin’s recent strength to the evolving political and regulatory backdrop. He emphasized that the broader crypto industry has benefited from a more supportive stance by policymakers in recent years. Moreover, he highlighted that since former President Donald Trump‘s re-election, the tone of U.S. policy has become more accommodating toward digital assets.

This friendlier environment has, in Zhao’s view, helped rebuild trust across the crypto ecosystem. According to him, the renewed confidence is visible in the strong performance of U.S. equity markets, which often act as a barometer for risk appetite. Historically, robust stock indexes have tended to underpin Bitcoin, creating a backdrop where investors are more willing to allocate to volatile assets.

A $200,000 target that Zhao sees as ‘obvious’

Zhao has repeatedly stressed that, in his assessment, Bitcoin eventually climbing to $200,000 is a foregone conclusion. He described such a move as “the most obvious thing in the world,” underscoring his conviction that long-term adoption trends outweigh short-term volatility. That said, he did not attach a precise date to when this threshold might be crossed.

His bullish stance is not isolated. Tom Lee of Fundstrat has long held a similar target for the leading cryptocurrency, also projecting a potential move toward $200,000. Lee’s outlook rests on expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improved liquidity conditions, which he believes could support higher valuations across risk assets, including Bitcoin.

In this context, Zhao’s comments fit into a broader bitcoin market outlook shared by a number of high-profile analysts. However, while the numerical forecasts are similar, the underlying narratives vary, ranging from monetary policy drivers to the structural impact of institutional capital entering the sector.

How regulatory easing and macro trends support crypto

The former Binance chief argued that crypto markets are no longer operating on the fringes of finance. Instead, they are increasingly intertwined with macroeconomic trends and traditional asset classes. Moreover, he suggested that clearer rules and friendlier oversight reduce perceived legal and operational risks for major investors, encouraging more capital to move into the space.

Zhao also pointed to the role of strong U.S. equity benchmarks in supporting digital asset sentiment. When major indices trade near highs, risk-taking tends to rise, often spilling over into Bitcoin and other tokens. By contrast, periods of sharp equity drawdowns have historically coincided with sudden bitcoin price fluctuation, as investors rush to cut exposure across their portfolios.

He framed this connection as another reason why he believes the bitcoin price can eventually scale to the $200,000 mark. In his view, an environment featuring easier monetary conditions, resilient corporate earnings and clearer regulations forms a powerful tailwind for the entire crypto asset class.

Institutional adoption could reshape bitcoin’s classic cycles

Beyond headline price targets, Zhao focused on how Bitcoin’s behavior might change as it becomes more embedded in traditional finance. For much of its history, the asset has been heavily influenced by its four-year bitcoin halving cycle, which reduces new supply and has often preceded strong bull markets. However, he argued that this pattern may weaken as large professional investors take a greater role.

Growing bitcoin institutional adoption could push Bitcoin to trade more like a global risk asset than a niche speculative instrument driven primarily by retail traders. As pension funds, asset managers and corporations increase their exposure, flows could respond more to macroeconomic data, interest rate expectations and cross-asset correlations than to purely crypto-native events.

That said, Zhao acknowledged that many commentators still see the four-year cycle as relevant for framing long-term expectations. While some analysts continue to map future rallies around upcoming halvings, others warn that relying solely on historical patterns may be misleading in a market increasingly shaped by institutions and regulation.

From retail speculation to macro-driven asset

Zhao’s outlook reflects a broader shift in sentiment since 2020, as Bitcoin has moved from a largely retail-driven phenomenon toward a more complex macro asset. Moreover, the arrival of regulated products, custodial services and compliance tools has lowered entry barriers for traditional finance, reinforcing his view that the asset is now tied more closely to global economic cycles.

As the crypto sector expands, topics such as crypto regulatory easing, monetary policy and cross-border capital flows are becoming central to understanding its trajectory. In this evolving landscape, Zhao contends that the path to $200,000 is less about speculative manias and more about structural integration into the financial system.

In summary, Zhao and other prominent analysts argue that Bitcoin’s future will be shaped by regulation, institutional flows and macro conditions as much as by its code-based supply schedule. If that thesis proves correct, the journey toward $200,000 could look very different from earlier bull runs, driven less by halving lore and more by mainstream adoption.

In a renewed show of optimism for digital assets, Changpeng Zhao argues that the bitcoin price reaching $200,000 is now largely a question of timing.

CZ links bitcoin’s upside to policy shifts and market confidence

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ, reiterated that Bitcoin is on track to hit $200,000, calling this outcome effectively inevitable over the long term. He attributed the cryptocurrency’s growth potential to easing regulatory pressure and deeper integration into global financial markets, arguing that these forces will embed Bitcoin more firmly within the worldwide economy.

Zhao directly tied Bitcoin’s recent strength to the evolving political and regulatory backdrop. He emphasized that the broader crypto industry has benefited from a more supportive stance by policymakers in recent years. Moreover, he highlighted that since former President Donald Trump‘s re-election, the tone of U.S. policy has become more accommodating toward digital assets.

This friendlier environment has, in Zhao’s view, helped rebuild trust across the crypto ecosystem. According to him, the renewed confidence is visible in the strong performance of U.S. equity markets, which often act as a barometer for risk appetite. Historically, robust stock indexes have tended to underpin Bitcoin, creating a backdrop where investors are more willing to allocate to volatile assets.

A $200,000 target that Zhao sees as ‘obvious’

Zhao has repeatedly stressed that, in his assessment, Bitcoin eventually climbing to $200,000 is a foregone conclusion. He described such a move as “the most obvious thing in the world,” underscoring his conviction that long-term adoption trends outweigh short-term volatility. That said, he did not attach a precise date to when this threshold might be crossed.

His bullish stance is not isolated. Tom Lee of Fundstrat has long held a similar target for the leading cryptocurrency, also projecting a potential move toward $200,000. Lee’s outlook rests on expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improved liquidity conditions, which he believes could support higher valuations across risk assets, including Bitcoin.

In this context, Zhao’s comments fit into a broader bitcoin market outlook shared by a number of high-profile analysts. However, while the numerical forecasts are similar, the underlying narratives vary, ranging from monetary policy drivers to the structural impact of institutional capital entering the sector.

How regulatory easing and macro trends support crypto

The former Binance chief argued that crypto markets are no longer operating on the fringes of finance. Instead, they are increasingly intertwined with macroeconomic trends and traditional asset classes. Moreover, he suggested that clearer rules and friendlier oversight reduce perceived legal and operational risks for major investors, encouraging more capital to move into the space.

Zhao also pointed to the role of strong U.S. equity benchmarks in supporting digital asset sentiment. When major indices trade near highs, risk-taking tends to rise, often spilling over into Bitcoin and other tokens. By contrast, periods of sharp equity drawdowns have historically coincided with sudden bitcoin price fluctuation, as investors rush to cut exposure across their portfolios.

He framed this connection as another reason why he believes the bitcoin price can eventually scale to the $200,000 mark. In his view, an environment featuring easier monetary conditions, resilient corporate earnings and clearer regulations forms a powerful tailwind for the entire crypto asset class.

Institutional adoption could reshape bitcoin’s classic cycles

Beyond headline price targets, Zhao focused on how Bitcoin’s behavior might change as it becomes more embedded in traditional finance. For much of its history, the asset has been heavily influenced by its four-year bitcoin halving cycle, which reduces new supply and has often preceded strong bull markets. However, he argued that this pattern may weaken as large professional investors take a greater role.

Growing bitcoin institutional adoption could push Bitcoin to trade more like a global risk asset than a niche speculative instrument driven primarily by retail traders. As pension funds, asset managers and corporations increase their exposure, flows could respond more to macroeconomic data, interest rate expectations and cross-asset correlations than to purely crypto-native events.

That said, Zhao acknowledged that many commentators still see the four-year cycle as relevant for framing long-term expectations. While some analysts continue to map future rallies around upcoming halvings, others warn that relying solely on historical patterns may be misleading in a market increasingly shaped by institutions and regulation.

From retail speculation to macro-driven asset

Zhao’s outlook reflects a broader shift in sentiment since 2020, as Bitcoin has moved from a largely retail-driven phenomenon toward a more complex macro asset. Moreover, the arrival of regulated products, custodial services and compliance tools has lowered entry barriers for traditional finance, reinforcing his view that the asset is now tied more closely to global economic cycles.

As the crypto sector expands, topics such as crypto regulatory easing, monetary policy and cross-border capital flows are becoming central to understanding its trajectory. In this evolving landscape, Zhao contends that the path to $200,000 is less about speculative manias and more about structural integration into the financial system.

In summary, Zhao and other prominent analysts argue that Bitcoin’s future will be shaped by regulation, institutional flows and macro conditions as much as by its code-based supply schedule. If that thesis proves correct, the journey toward $200,000 could look very different from earlier bull runs, driven less by halving lore and more by mainstream adoption.

Trading platforms tied to prediction markets are starting 2026 with record activity, even as regulators intensify their focus on the sector.

Record daily volume of $702M kicks off 2026

Prediction-focused platforms ended 2025 on a sharp uptrend and carried that momentum into 2026. According to Dune Analytics, combined trading activity across major venues recently jumped to about $702M in a single day, marking a new all time high for the niche.

Data shows prediction market volume has been rising quickly since late 2025. Kalshi drove most of the action, handling roughly two thirds of total trades, while Polymarket and Opinion also saw heavy usage during the same period.

On Monday, total trading volume reached a fresh ATH of $700M, underscoring how interest continues to accelerate. Moreover, figures shared by analyst Jonaso on January 15, 2026 highlighted that Kalshi generated $460M that day, securing 66.4% of the market.

Meanwhile, Polymarket, Opinion and @trylimitless each captured close to a 14% share, indicating that liquidity is spreading beyond a single venue. However, the leadership position of Kalshi remains clear based on its reported trading dominance.

How prediction markets are evolving in crypto

These on chain venues allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcome of real world events, including elections, macroeconomic data and sports. Over recent months, they have emerged as one of crypto‘s fastest growing applications, supported by rising on chain volumes and user participation.

Moreover, large crypto companies have started to engage with this trend. Coinbase and Gemini are reportedly exploring integrations that would surface event based markets to their customers, while wallet providers such as MetaMask are adding interfaces that give users direct access.

This expansion has helped push leading firms in the space to multi billion dollar valuations, as capital flows into infrastructure and liquidity. That said, the prediction markets narrative is increasingly colliding with regulatory debates that could shape how these platforms operate in the coming years.

For many users, one of the key attractions of prediction markets is the ability to express views on politics, finance and culture using relatively small stakes. However, that same breadth of topics has drawn closer attention from policymakers worried about gambling, market integrity and potential insider trading.

Regulatory scrutiny intensifies on event based trading

Regulators worldwide are now paying closer attention to prediction markets regulation, even as trading volumes climb. A recent high profile position on Polymarket triggered concerns that the trader might have relied on non public information, prompting fresh calls for oversight.

Lawmakers in several US states are reviewing whether certain contracts tied to politics, sports or financial assets should face restrictions or outright bans. Moreover, some jurisdictions are questioning whether existing gambling or securities rules already cover these types of event based markets.

States such as New York and New Jersey have previously attempted to limit access to specific platforms, arguing that the products look similar to unlicensed wagering. In response, operators have pushed back in court, arguing their contracts provide information markets rather than pure gambling products.

This week, the legal battle produced a notable development. A federal judge in Tennessee paused state level action against Kalshi, giving the company temporary relief as it contests the enforcement effort. However, the underlying questions about classification and jurisdiction remain unresolved.

Global pushback and resilient user demand

Outside the United States, authorities have also started to react. Late last year, Ukraine moved to block local access to Polymarket, explicitly framing these services as a form of gambling that should not be available to residents.

Even with these policy headwinds, trading data indicates that users have not stepped back in a meaningful way. Moreover, the recent $702M record day suggests that appetite for event based speculation and hedging remains robust despite mounting regulatory uncertainty.

For now, platforms are trying to balance growth with compliance while investors track both trading metrics and legal developments. In summary, the sector’s trajectory will likely depend on how courts and regulators ultimately define these markets and whether stricter rules impact liquidity over time.

In a major move for digital media and finance, Bitmine has confirmed a substantial Beast industries investment that links crypto infrastructure with one of YouTube’s largest content brands.

Bitmine commits $200 million to MrBeast’s media company

Bitmine Immersion Technologies has invested $200 million in Beast Industries, the content-creation company founded by YouTuber MrBeast. According to information released by both companies, the transaction underscores the growing convergence between large-scale content platforms and capital-intensive tech investors.

The deal is expected to close around Monday, January 19, 2026, pending customary conditions. Moreover, both sides framed the agreement as a long-term strategic partnership rather than a simple capital injection, signaling broader ambitions in media and financial technology.

Strategic alignment and leadership reactions

Beast Industries CEO Jeff Housenbold welcomed Bitmine as a new shareholder and strategic ally. He expressed appreciation for the partnership and highlighted the investor’s operational expertise, suggesting that the collaboration could accelerate product development as well as international expansion.

On the investor side, Bitmine’s chairman Thomas Lee cited a strong alignment of corporate values as a key factor behind the decision. However, he also emphasized the importance of scale, pointing to MrBeast’s global reach and to the company’s disciplined approach to building durable digital businesses.

MrBeast’s audience scale and media reach

MrBeast, whose YouTube channels have amassed more than 450 million subscribers, has turned Beast Industries into a major player in the content-creation sector. The channels generate about 5 billion monthly views, giving the company a powerful distribution network that can support new product launches and partnerships.

That said, audience size alone does not fully explain investor interest. For Bitmine, the appeal lies in combining this massive reach with emerging financial technology, potentially turning viewers into users of new digital services anchored around the creator brand.

From content to finance with DeFi technology

As part of its growth strategy, Beast Industries revealed plans to incorporate decentralized finance (DeFi) technology into an upcoming financial services platform. This initiative suggests that the beast industries investment is not only about scaling content production but also about building a bridge between entertainment and next-generation financial tools.

Moreover, the planned financial services platform would position the company at the intersection of media, crypto, and fintech. By integrating DeFi elements, Beast Industries could explore new revenue streams, loyalty mechanisms, and user engagement models that go beyond traditional advertising or sponsorship-based monetization.

Outlook for the Bitmine and Beast Industries partnership

While detailed product roadmaps have not been disclosed, the partnership hints at a broader media and finance collaboration that leverages Bitmine’s technology stack and MrBeast’s global audience. However, execution risks remain, particularly around regulation and user trust in new financial offerings tied to a creator-led brand.

In summary, the $200 million commitment from Bitmine Immersion Technologies marks a significant step in linking large-scale content operations with advanced financial services. If successful, the alliance between Bitmine, MrBeast, and Beast Industries could serve as a high-profile test case for how creator-driven media companies expand into digital finance.

In a move to modernize market infrastructure, London Stock Exchange Group has introduced its new digital settlement house to connect traditional and blockchain-based finance.

LSEG DiSH: a new blockchain settlement platform

The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) has launched a blockchain-powered settlement service called Digital Settlement House (DiSH), designed for financial institutions handling both traditional and digital assets. The platform supports 24/7 settlement, enabling participants to move real commercial bank money and settle assets instantly across multiple networks and jurisdictions.

Moreover, the service targets continuous cash movement across currencies, addressing friction in existing systems that rely on limited operating hours and batch processing. By integrating digital and conventional rails, LSEG aims to give institutions more flexibility in managing payments and assets throughout the day.

How DiSH cash works on the ledger

The new service enables near-instant payment-versus-payment (PvP) and delivery-versus-payment (DvP) settlement using commercial bank deposits. These deposits are recorded on the DiSH ledger as “DiSH Cash,” which gives users immediate ownership and transferability within the platform’s environment.

However, the underlying funds remain held at commercial banks in multiple currencies, while their tokenised representations circulate on the DiSH ledger. This structure is designed to preserve the integrity of traditional bank money while harnessing blockchain efficiency.

The platform also acts as a bridge between on-chain and off-chain arrangements, coordinating assets and payments across independent networks. That said, it supports both blockchain-based environments and conventional financial infrastructure, allowing DiSH to orchestrate complex settlement flows without forcing participants to abandon existing systems.

Connecting cash, securities and digital assets

According to LSEG, the digital settlement house expands the range of tokenised cash and cash-like solutions available to institutional markets. For the first time, the group says, it offers a real cash solution tokenised on blockchain technology using cash in multiple currencies that is held at commercial banks rather than at a central bank.

Daniel Maguire, Group Head of LSEG Markets and CEO of LCH Group, emphasized this structural shift. “LSEG DiSH expands the tokenised cash and cash-like solutions available to the market, and for the first time, offers a real cash solution tokenised on the blockchain utilizing cash in multiple currencies held at commercial banks,” he said.

Risk reduction and liquidity optimization

LSEG highlights that instant, synchronized settlement can shorten settlement timelines and reduce counterparty risk across markets. Moreover, settling transactions in near real time helps unlock assets that might otherwise be tied up in pending trades, increasing collateral availability and supporting more efficient balance sheet management.

The company also stresses the potential to improve liquidity management by enabling users to move cash and assets continuously rather than waiting for end-of-day cycles. This round-the-clock operating model can support margin management and asset optimization for banks, brokers and clearing entities that operate in multiple time zones.

Integrating existing and new market infrastructures

In commenting on the rollout, Maguire underlined the service’s integration capabilities across markets and technologies. “This innovative service will enable users to reduce settlement risk and integrate existing cash, securities, and digital assets across new and existing market infrastructure. We look forward to developing this service in partnership with the market,” he noted.

Furthermore, DiSH aims to support cross-border cash movement by linking different currencies and jurisdictions on a single coordinated platform. By combining blockchain tools with established financial frameworks, LSEG is positioning DiSH as a foundational layer for next-generation settlement workflows.

Overall, the launch of LSEG DiSH signals a strategic step by a major exchange group to connect tokenised commercial bank deposits with traditional financial systems, aiming to reduce risk, boost liquidity and deliver round-the-clock settlement for global institutions.

In a new capital markets experiment, Swift and Societe Generale’s digital asset arm have tested tokenized bonds settlement using both cash and stablecoins.

Societe Generale and Swift connect tokenization with traditional rails

The cryptocurrency and stablecoin-focused arm of French bank Societe Generale (GLE), SG-FORGE, is collaborating with Swift to exchange and settle tokenized bonds using fiat money and digital currencies, the bank said on Thursday.

In this proof of concept, Swift acted as an orchestration layer between blockchain networks and existing payment systems while SG-FORGE handled issuance and settlement flows. Moreover, the setup preserved banks’ existing connectivity to Swift, limiting the need for new infrastructure.

EURCV stablecoin and MiCA compliance at the core of the trial

The transaction used SG-FORGE’s EURCV $1.1631 stablecoin, described by the bank as the first MiCA (Markets in Crypto Assets)-compliant stablecoin natively compatible with Swift. However, fiat cash legs were also supported, showing that both traditional and digital money can be used in a single workflow.

According to Societe Generale, this design allows financial institutions to experiment with digital assets while still operating within familiar Swift-based environments and regulatory frameworks. That said, the reliance on a fully regulated euro stablecoin is central to the model’s appeal for banks.

Key capital markets use cases validated

The demonstration showed the feasibility of several core market operations: issuance, delivery-versus-payment (DvP) settlement, coupon payments and redemption. Moreover, it provided a live test of how ISO 20022 messaging can support these token-based processes.

By integrating ISO 20022 standards, Societe Generale said tokenized bonds can plug into existing payment infrastructures. As a result, institutions may benefit from faster and more automated settlements without abandoning their current back-office systems.

Swift’s broader digital asset strategy

The trial forms part of a wider series of digital asset and digital currency use cases led by Swift and involving more than 30 global banks. In September last year, Swift announced a project with these institutions to develop a shared digital ledger based on blockchain.

That initiative initially targets real-time, 24/7 cross-border payments using a common infrastructure that can connect different bank systems. However, it also lays the groundwork for future multi-asset settlement, including tokenized securities and programmable money.

Collaboration instead of competition with blockchain rails

Blockchain technology and stablecoin settlement rails are often presented as alternatives to Swift and traditional correspondent banking. In this case, however, Societe Generale is exploring collaborative models that bridge existing infrastructures with new digital asset platforms.

As such, token-based securities can leverage the scale and reach of Swift while tapping the programmability of blockchain. Moreover, the bank argues that this hybrid model could accelerate institutional adoption by reducing integration complexity.

Interoperability as the future of capital markets

“This milestone demonstrates how collaboration and interoperability will shape the future of capital markets,” said Thomas Dugauquier, tokenized assets product lead at Swift. “By proving that Swift can orchestrate multi-platform tokenized asset transactions, we’re paving the way for our customers to adopt digital assets with confidence, and at scale.

“It’s about creating a bridge between existing finance and emerging technologies.” The statement highlights Swift’s ambition to serve as a neutral coordination layer across multiple blockchains and payment systems rather than being displaced by them.

Overall, the experiment confirms that regulated stablecoins like EURCV, combined with Swift’s orchestration and ISO 20022 integration, can support real-world issuance and settlement flows for token-based securities while preserving current banking connectivity.

As Washington races to finalize new rules on stablecoin regulation, Wall Street and the crypto industry are clashing over who should control digital dollars and the yield they generate.

Bank of America flags trillions at risk of leaving deposits

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has warned that stablecoins could siphon off as much as $6 trillion from the US banking system, intensifying long-running tensions between large lenders and the fast-growing digital asset sector.

Speaking on the bank’s earnings call on Wednesday, Moynihan said that, under certain regulatory outcomes, roughly 30% to 35% of all US commercial bank deposits could migrate into stablecoins. Moreover, he stressed that the estimate draws on Treasury Department analyses of potential scenarios.

Moynihan linked the threat directly to the ongoing legislative debate in Congress over whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay interest, or other forms of yield, to everyday users. However, he also framed it as part of a broader conversation about how digital assets intersect with traditional banking.

Yield-bearing designs put bank funding models under pressure

At the heart of banks’ concerns is the question of interest on stablecoins. Lawmakers are weighing whether issuers should be permitted to offer yield on balances, a feature that lenders argue could supercharge bank deposit outflows by offering a bank-like product without comparable oversight.

According to Moynihan, many of today’s stablecoin structures resemble money market mutual funds more than insured bank deposits. Reserves, he noted, are usually invested in short-dated instruments such as U.S. Treasurys, rather than being recycled into loans for households and businesses.

That model, he said, could materially shrink the deposit base that banks use to fund credit across the economy. Moreover, a large shift into fully reserved digital dollars would reduce the role of fractional leverage, limiting banks’ ability to transform short-term deposits into long-term lending.

“If you take out deposits, they’re either not going to be able to loan or they’re going to have to get wholesale funding,” Moynihan warned. He added that wholesale funding is typically more expensive, which could compress margins and reduce banks’ willingness to extend credit.

Legislative push on stablecoins reaches critical phase

These industry warnings arrive as the Senate Banking Committee accelerates work on a negotiated crypto market structure bill. The latest draft, released on Jan. 9 by committee chair Tim Scott, would bar digital asset service providers from paying interest or yield simply for holding stablecoins in an account.

However, the proposal draws an explicit distinction between passive holdings and active participation. It would still permit activity-based rewards linked to functions such as staking, liquidity provision, or posting collateral, signaling lawmakers’ intent to separate payments-style stablecoins from riskier, investment-like products.

Pressure around the text has intensified as the committee confronts tight legislative deadlines. More than 70 amendments were filed ahead of a planned markup this week, underscoring the intensity of lobbying from major banking associations and leading crypto firms.

Other contentious sections include proposed ethics rules, which gained unusual attention after reports that the president had earned hundreds of millions of dollars from family-linked crypto ventures. Moreover, those disclosures have sharpened scrutiny of potential conflicts of interest around digital asset policymaking.

Stablecoin regulation debate exposes deeper policy divides

The fight over stablecoin yields is increasingly being framed as a test case for broader stablecoin regulation in the United States. While banks warn of destabilizing outflows, many crypto advocates counter that fully reserved, transparent stablecoins could reduce systemic risk by eliminating opaque leverage.

In public commentary, critics have distilled the issue into stark terms: interest on stable balances could trigger a mass deposit flight; fully reserved digital money would curtail fractional leverage; and banks could lose a key source of low-cost funding, squeezing profits. That said, policymakers are also weighing potential benefits for consumers seeking safer, programmable forms of cash.

However, the draft bill’s design shows that Congress is not prepared to treat all forms of yield equally. Lawmakers appear determined to close off simple, savings account-style returns on stablecoin holdings while still accommodating more complex decentralized finance use cases.

Concerns over expanded Treasury oversight

The proposed framework has also drawn criticism from outside the banking sector. A recent report from Galaxy Research warned that the legislation could significantly widen Treasury Department surveillance over digital asset flows, raising fresh worries among civil liberties and privacy advocates.

Moreover, the Galaxy analysis argued that expanded monitoring powers might chill innovation in crypto payments and financial infrastructure, even as regulators seek greater visibility into on-chain activity. These warnings add another layer of complexity to an already polarized debate.

Industry support fractures as exchanges push back

Unity within the crypto industry is also breaking down. The chief executive of Coinbase said the exchange could not support the bill in its current form, pointing to provisions that he argued would effectively eliminate stablecoin rewards for users.

His comments highlight how contested the emerging rules have become, even among companies that have previously advocated for clearer oversight. However, they also suggest that large platforms see meaningful revenue and engagement risks if straightforward yield programs on stable balances are curtailed.

Later that day, the Senate Banking Committee announced that the scheduled markup of the bill had been postponed. In a brief statement, members said negotiations remained ongoing and that “everyone remains at the table working in good faith,” signaling that the final contours of any compromise are still in flux.

Outlook for banks, stablecoin issuers and lawmakers

For now, the clash between traditional lenders and digital asset firms over how to treat stablecoins and their yields remains unresolved. Banks warn that trillions of dollars in deposits, and by extension their capacity to lend, are potentially at stake.

At the same time, stablecoin issuers and exchanges are lobbying to preserve reward structures that attract users and differentiate their products from conventional bank accounts. Moreover, privacy advocates are pressing lawmakers to narrow any expansion of government monitoring powers over on-chain activity.

As the legislative process moves forward, the outcome of this fight will shape the future of US dollar-denominated tokens, bank funding models, and the balance between innovation, consumer protection, and state oversight in the digital asset economy.

Institutional investors are gaining fresh access to crypto infrastructure as a new chainlink etf launches on a major U.S. exchange.

Bitwise lists CLNK, expanding regulated Chainlink exposure

Bitwise has introduced a new exchange-traded fund tied to Chainlink, giving investors regulated access to the oracle network without holding LINK directly. The product, trading under the ticker CLNK, is now live on NYSE Arca and adds to the growing roster of crypto infrastructure ETFs.

CLNK provides spot-style exposure to the broader Chainlink ecosystem without requiring LINK token custody by investors. Instead, Bitwise structured the ETF to mirror Chainlink’s market performance as closely as possible. As a result, investors can obtain LINK exposure through standard brokerage accounts, while staying within traditional regulatory frameworks.

Moreover, the issuer continues to broaden its ETF lineup as institutional interest in digital asset products accelerates. The CLNK launch underscores how infrastructure-focused instruments are becoming a preferred entry point for professional investors, compared with direct token purchases.

Chainlink infrastructure at the center of DeFi and tokenization

Bitwise has repeatedly emphasized Chainlink’s status as a core infrastructure layer in blockchain markets. The oracle network connects smart contracts to verified off-chain data, turning external information into reliable on-chain inputs. Consequently, it underpins key use cases such as decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenization of real-world assets, and blockchain-based settlement.

This infrastructure footprint is not theoretical. According to industry data cited by Bitwise, more than $75 billion in DeFi contracts depend on Chainlink price feeds and other oracle services. In addition, the network has supported over $27 trillion in cumulative transaction value, highlighting its role in production-grade blockchain systems.

However, Bitwise is framing CLNK as an avenue to participate in blockchain utility rather than a vehicle for short-term speculation on token moves. The firm describes the ETF as a way to gain targeted exposure to Chainlink infrastructure investment and long-term adoption trends across multiple sectors.

Investment thesis: from token trading to infrastructure exposure

This strategic positioning shapes Bitwise’s broader investment thesis. Instead of focusing primarily on price volatility, CLNK is marketed as exposure to the functionality that enables smart contracts, DeFi protocols, and tokenization platforms to operate reliably. Therefore, the ETF is aimed at investors who want to align with the growth of blockchain infrastructure.

That said, the product still delivers economic exposure to LINK’s market performance via regulated fund units. This allows institutions that face internal mandates or custodial constraints to access the same underlying ecosystem. It also fits within a wider trend of crypto infrastructure ETFs that isolate critical layers of the digital asset stack.

In the middle of this shift, the chainlink etf category is emerging as a distinct niche, sitting between broad-based crypto market funds and single-asset trading vehicles. CLNK illustrates how asset managers are packaging specific protocol exposure for compliance-focused investors.

Second Chainlink-focused product signals a maturing market

Bitwise now joins Grayscale in the U.S. market for Chainlink-based exchange-traded products. Grayscale launched its own Chainlink ETF in December, marking the first such offering available to American investors. Since its debut, Grayscale’s fund has accumulated $63.78 million in cumulative inflows, demonstrating meaningful demand for this type of exposure.

The arrival of CLNK introduces direct competition within this specialized ETF segment. Both the Bitwise fund and the Grayscale product trade on NYSE Arca, one of the main U.S. venues for exchange-traded products. Moreover, the coexistence of two similar funds indicates that infrastructure-oriented tokens are beginning to attract attention comparable to major cryptocurrencies.

However, the differentiation may ultimately hinge on fee levels, liquidity, and how each issuer articulates the long-term role of Chainlink in tokenization and DeFi. For now, the market appears large enough to support multiple vehicles targeting institutional and sophisticated retail demand.

Fees, incentives, and regulatory backdrop

The Bitwise Chainlink ETF carries an annual management fee of 0.34%, placing it in line with many single-asset crypto products. To catalyze early trading activity, the issuer has waived fees for the first three months on assets up to $500 million. This incentive structure is designed to support initial liquidity and make the fund more attractive during its launch phase.

Meanwhile, LINK remains one of the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, with a valuation exceeding $9.5 billion. That size provides a deeper underlying market for ETF issuers that need to manage creations, redemptions, and potential hedging activity. It also reinforces Chainlink’s position as a key asset within the broader digital asset landscape.

The CLNK debut coincides with a period of faster crypto ETF approvals in the United States. Regulatory clarity has improved following leadership changes at the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, policymakers have adopted a more constructive tone toward digital assets, which has encouraged launches ranging from spot products to infrastructure-focused funds.

Implications for crypto infrastructure investing

As Bitwise expands its presence on NYSE Arca, the CLNK listing underscores how crypto exposure is shifting toward regulated, infrastructure-centric vehicles. Moreover, the emergence of multiple Chainlink-based funds suggests that oracles and data services are now recognized as investable pillars of the ecosystem.

In summary, the new ETF adds institutional-grade access to a protocol that underlies more than $75 billion in DeFi contracts and over $27 trillion in transaction value. If demand continues to build, CLNK and its peers could help cement Chainlink’s role at the heart of next-generation financial infrastructure.

During a brutal Q4 2025 for digital assets, volatility in coinbase stock amplified the impact of the crypto market slump on innovation-focused portfolios.

Coinbase weighs on ARK’s flagship strategies

According to ARK Invest’s latest quarterly report, Coinbase was the single largest detractor from performance across its innovation-focused ETFs in Q4 2025. The damage came during the three months ending December 31, as shares slid in parallel with a 9% quarter-over-quarter decline in spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges.

The weakness in COIN occurred even as the exchange staged a high-profile product event outlining long-term ambitions. The roadmap featured on-chain equities, prediction markets, and an AI-powered portfolio advisor, underscoring management’s effort to broaden revenue beyond pure spot trading.

Market conditions, however, remained hostile across digital assets. An October 10th liquidation event erased $21 billion in leveraged positions, triggering cascading deleveraging throughout the crypto sector and intensifying selling pressure into year-end.

Broader ARK Invest exposure under strain

The fallout extended beyond Coinbase inside ARK Invest funds, as several high-conviction holdings struggled to navigate the risk-off backdrop. Roblox emerged as another major drag after reporting third-quarter bookings growth of 51% year over year but guiding to shrinking operating margins in 2026 because of higher infrastructure and safety spending.

Russia’s decision to ban Roblox on child safety grounds further dented sentiment. The move removed roughly 8% of the platform’s total daily active users, even though the region represented less than 1% of total revenue, highlighting how geographic policy shifts can distort headline user metrics.

Not all positions disappointed, however. Advanced Micro Devices became the quarter’s strongest contributor after unveiling major AI partnerships, including a multiyear agreement with OpenAI and a collaboration with Oracle to build a public AI supercluster.

AMD’s third-quarter earnings underscored that momentum, with 36% year-over-year revenue growth driven by robust demand in its Data Center and Gaming segments. That said, the stock’s strength was not enough to fully offset weakness in more volatile holdings tied to digital assets and consumer software.

Shopify added further support after rallying on news of an integration with OpenAI that enables instant in-chat checkout for ChatGPT users. The company also reported strong third-quarter results, posting 32% year-over-year growth in both gross merchandise value and revenue.

Rocket Lab shares surged as well after the company secured multiple launch agreements, including an $816 million contract to deliver 18 missile warning, tracking, and defense satellites into low Earth orbit. Moreover, the win marked the largest deal in the company’s history and reinforced ARK’s focus on space-related innovation.

Even so, performance across ARK’s lineup was mixed. During Q4 2025, four of its actively managed ETFs underperformed broad-based global equity indices, while two funds either outperformed or delivered more muted, index-like returns.

ARK’s commentary struck a cautiously optimistic tone despite the drawdown. “The innovation space is recovering and being revalued,” the firm wrote, arguing that “headwinds that once pressured disruptive technologies are shifting into structural tailwinds” as investors reassess long-duration growth stories.

The crypto-heavy strategies faced the sharpest stress. Bitcoin fell from October highs near $126,000 to trade below $88,000 by year-end, amplifying risk aversion toward listed exchanges and related infrastructure plays.

Coinbase accelerates ‘everything exchange’ expansion

Against this backdrop, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has moved to recast the business model around a more diversified “everything exchange” vision for 2026. Earlier this month, he outlined plans to combine crypto, equities, prediction markets, and commodities under a unified venue spanning spot, futures, and options products.

The strategy aims to position Coinbase as a direct competitor to traditional brokerages, while still leveraging its core expertise in digital assets. Crucially, the exchange is pushing into tokenized securities and event-driven markets that have already attracted billions in recent trading volumes across the industry.

Armstrong framed the initiative in ambitious terms, stating that the goal is to make Coinbase “the #1 financial app in the world.” He added that the company is investing heavily in product quality and automation to support the scale and regulatory complexity implied by the new model.

The firm also moved aggressively into prediction markets during late 2025. Coinbase partnered with Kalshi, a federally regulated platform overseen by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to expand into event contracts.

Leaked screenshots in November showed a Coinbase-branded prediction interface that supports USDC or USD trading across economics, politics, sports, and technology categories. The product runs through Coinbase Financial Markets, the exchange’s derivatives subsidiary, and relies on Kalshi’s regulatory framework to list yes-or-no event contracts.

Tokenized assets and regulatory outlook support the narrative

Beyond prediction markets integration, Coinbase is preparing to issue tokenized equities directly in-house instead of relying on external partners. This approach distinguishes the company from rivals such as Robinhood and Kraken, which typically depend on third-party providers when offering stock-backed tokens.

In light of these 2026 initiatives, Goldman Sachs raised its stance on the exchange. On January 6, the bank upgraded Coinbase from neutral to buy and lifted its 12-month price target to $303, citing growing confidence in the platform’s diversification and tokenization roadmap.

The market reacted swiftly to the Goldman Sachs upgrade. Coinbase shares jumped 8% following the call, finishing the session at $254.92 and offering some relief after a punishing quarter for the broader crypto ecosystem.

Analysts highlighted that the company is deliberately reducing its dependence on spot crypto trading volumes. They pointed to infrastructure services, tokenization plans, and prediction products as potential long-term drivers that could reshape perceptions of coinbase stock among institutional investors.

Coinbase’s head of investment research also reiterated that management expects broader crypto adoption in 2026. Moreover, the firm anticipates increased participation from both retail and institutional clients as regulatory clarity improves around trading, custody, and tokenized securities.

Regulation remains a key swing factor. Coinbase has threatened to withdraw its support for the draft Crypto Market Structure Bill after late-stage changes that industry participants argue would effectively end DeFi. The dispute, which involves bipartisan lawmakers and major banking interests, underscores how legislative details could still alter the pace of market evolution.

In sum, Q4 2025 underscored how tightly linked ARK’s performance remains to high-beta innovation themes and crypto assets. However, Coinbase’s push into tokenized equities, prediction markets, and a broader “everything exchange” framework suggests the exchange is betting that diversification and regulatory tailwinds will eventually stabilize growth and restore investor confidence.

In the current market context, the Solana price is moving in a controlled rise above $145, with a constructive trend but increasingly narrow margins for error.

SOL/USDT with EMA20, EMA50 and volumes”
loading=”lazy” />SOL/USDT — daily chart with candles, EMA20/EMA50 and volumes.

Main Scenario on D1: Rise Above Average, but Below the 200

The price of Solana (SOLUSDT) today is moving around $145.5, in what I would define as a controlled rise: the underlying trend on the daily remains constructive, but we are increasingly close to a zone where aggressive profit-taking is easy to see.

The general crypto context is still favorable (Fear & Greed index at 61 – Greed), but not in full euphoria. In practice: there is a desire to take on risk, but any too rapid extension risks being sold.

On the daily chart Solana is quoted around $145.46, above the fast averages but still below the EMA 200, which is around $157.9. This is an important detail: the market is buying the pullbacks, but the real medium-term wall remains higher.

EMA (Exponential Moving Averages) – D1

EMA 20: $136.82

EMA 50: $137.81

EMA 200: $157.88

The price is well above EMA 20 and 50, with the two averages practically aligned and below the price, while the 200 remains higher. This indicates a short-medium term bullish trend, still embedded in a longer-term structure that has not been fully reclaimed. As long as we stay above $137–138, buyers have operational control; above $158 we would have a stronger signal of structural recovery.

Daily RSI (D1)

RSI 14: 65.26

The RSI is in a bullish zone but not extreme. This indicates a positive push, with residual room for another leg up before entering the overbought area. In simple terms: the market is bought, but not yet in full overheating. The first real overbought tensions start above about 70.

Daily MACD (D1)

MACD line: 3.79

Signal: 2.24

Histogram: 1.55 (positive)

The MACD is positive and above the signal, with the histogram also positive. Translated: the underlying momentum remains in favor of buyers, with no evident signs of bearish reversal on the daily. The phase is not explosive, but consistent with a progressive rise.

Daily Bollinger Bands (D1)

Median: $134.59

Upper Band: $149.24

Lower Band: $119.93

The price is near the upper band ($145.46 against $149.24). This means that Solana is trading in the upper part of its recent volatility range: a typical behavior of healthy bullish trends, but also a zone where the probabilities of technical pullbacks or lateral consolidations increase. A daily close above $149–150 would be a marked signal of strength, while repeated rejections below that range could indicate the start of short-term distribution.

Daily ATR (D1)

ATR 14: $5.85

The ATR indicates an average daily volatility around $6. In practice, daily movements of 3–4% up or down are perfectly normal on SOL at this time. For those operating in the short term, positions without adequate room for stop risk being wiped out by normal market noise.

Daily Pivot Points (D1)

Central Pivot (PP): $145.13

Resistance R1: $147.06

Support S1: $143.54

The current price ($145.46–145.5) is close to the daily pivot, slightly above. This positioning suggests a fragile balance: small buying flows could push towards $147, while a weak session would be enough to quickly return to the $143.5 area. In practice, we are at an intraday decision point rather than in an extreme zone.

H1: Trend Still Bullish, but Momentum Slowing

On the hourly chart, Solana is quoted around $145.49. The hourly regime is classified as bullish, but signs of cooling momentum are beginning to emerge.

EMA on H1

EMA 20: $145.24

EMA 50: $144.44

EMA 200: $140.53

Price above all averages, with a good bullish structure: the averages are arranged in the correct order (price > EMA 20 > EMA 50 > EMA 200). The distance from the 200 is wide, indicating that the rise in recent sessions has been decisive. However, the angle of ascent of the faster averages is moderating: the trend remains positive, but more mature.

RSI on H1

RSI 14: 52.31

The hourly RSI has returned close to the neutral zone. This indicates that, in the short term, the euphoria has already dissipated: the market is neither stretched to the upside nor the downside. It is a typical context for a pause or redistribution phase after a previous movement.

MACD on H1

MACD line: 0.05

Signal: 0.12

Histogram: -0.07 (slightly negative)

The hourly MACD is showing a slight slowdown in bullish momentum: MACD line just below the signal, histogram slightly negative. It is not yet a strong reversal signal, but more of a warning that the bullish movement is catching its breath. If this divergence extends and the price does not update the highs, the risk of intraday correction increases.

Bollinger Bands on H1

Median: $145.62

Upper Band: $147.74

Lower Band: $143.50

The price is just below the median, in the upper third of the channel but not in contact with the upper band. This setup suggests a consolidation phase near local highs, with room for either a new test of the upper band (around $147.7) or a return towards the center of the range.

ATR and Pivot on H1

ATR 14 H1: $1.10

Pivot H1 (PP): $145.48

Resistance R1 H1: $145.62

Support S1 H1: $145.34

The hourly volatility is contained, with a typical range of about $1 per hour. The price is practically glued to the hourly pivot, between very close R1 and S1: a perfect context for chop and false intraday breakouts, especially for those working with high leverage and tight stops.

M15: Micro-Rise, but Very Delicate Technical Area

On the 15 minutes, SOL is at $145.5, with a slightly bullish picture but without explosiveness. It is the classic scenario where the price can break upwards or quickly stall.

EMA on M15

EMA 20: $145.10

EMA 50: $145.15

EMA 200: $144.57

Price just above the fast averages, which are very close to each other: a signal of a micro-bullish trend but not particularly directional. The 200 at $144.57 acts as an important intraday dynamic support: as long as we stay above, very short-term buyers remain in control.

RSI and MACD on M15

RSI 14 M15: 57.05

MACD line: 0.18

Signal: 0.09

Histogram: 0.09 (positive)

RSI above 50 and MACD slightly positive indicate a short-term bullish push still alive, but not extreme. It is an ideal context for long scalping as long as the price continues to respect rising lows; however, just a couple of decisive red candles are enough to quickly reverse this balance.

Bollinger Bands and Pivot on M15

Median BB M15: $144.94

Upper Band: $145.97

Lower Band: $143.91

Pivot M15 (PP): $145.48

R1 M15: $145.63

S1 M15: $145.35

The price travels between the median and the upper band and, again, practically on the pivot. This setup confirms the idea of a micro-rise in an area of equilibrium: the market has room for an extension towards $146–147, but also for a return towards $145–144.5 without the underlying trend being truly compromised.

Multi-Timeframe Summary: Bullish, but Not Foolproof

D1: Bullish structure above fast averages, positive momentum but near the upper part of the Bollinger Bands.

H1: Rise still present, but with cooling momentum (weakened MACD, neutral RSI).

M15: Intact micro-rise, but near key technical levels, easy to spoil with false breakouts.

The overall picture remains bullish, but with a clear signal: the easy phase of the movement may already be behind us. From here on, sensitivity to profit-taking increases and the risks of traps for those entering late.

Bullish Scenario on Solana Price (SOLUSDT)

The bullish scenario starts from the idea that the current price of Solana manages to consolidate above the $143–145 zone and attract new buyers on any small pullbacks.

What Buyers Need

Keep the Solana price today steadily above the daily pivot at $145.1.

Defend the support range $143.5–144 (S1 daily plus EMA 20–50 zone on lower timeframes).

Push towards and beyond $147–149, which coincides with R1 daily and the upper band of the Bollinger Bands.

If this script plays out, the price chart of Solana could draw a sequence of rising highs and lows with progressive targets:

First target: $149–150 (daily upper band, round psychological resistance).

Second extended target: $155–158, where the daily EMA 200 passes. Here I expect strong friction: it is a level that the market sees.

In this scenario, the Solana USD quotation would remain oriented upwards and any retracement towards $140–142 would likely be seen as a buying opportunity by position traders.

Levels That Invalidate the Bullish Scenario

Daily closes below $140, which would bring the price back inside or below the fast averages range.

Daily RSI that falls steadily below 50, signaling that control passes back to sellers.

Net loss of the daily EMA 50 ($137.8) with increased selling volumes: this would be a strong warning bell for those long in the medium term.

Bearish Scenario on Solana Price

The bearish scenario relies on the idea that the current value of Solana in the $145–147 area is more a distribution zone than a base for a restart. In this case, the market would have already started unloading positions in profit above $140.

What Sellers Need

Repeated rejection of the $147–149 area with reversal candles and increasing volumes.

Decisive break of $143.5 (S1 daily) and subsequent consolidation below $143.

Downward inclination of the daily EMA 20 and 50, with the price remaining below them for several sessions.

If this scenario takes hold, the bearish targets become:

First support: $140–141, psychological threshold and area where the first rebound attempt can be expected.

Next support: $136–138, key area because it coincides with the daily fast averages. A clean break here would open space towards $130.

In this framework, the live Solana price might still appear relatively high compared to the medium-term structure, and intraday rebounds would likely be used to lighten long positions rather than build new ones.

Levels That Invalidate the Bearish Scenario

Stable daily closes above $150, which would signal the strength of buyers even on key resistances.

Reclaim and hold of the daily EMA 200 at $157–158.

Daily RSI rising above 70 without immediate reversal, signaling a true breakout phase, not just a temporary excess.

How to Read the Current Context if You Trade SOL

Net of all the numbers, the market message is quite clear:

The current price of Solana is embedded in an underlying bullish trend on the daily.

Lower timeframes (H1, M15) show a consolidation phase after the movement, rather than a new decisive impulse.

The volatility is such that movements of a few dollars do not change the direction, but can easily trigger too tight stops.

For those looking at the market from an operational perspective:

Short-term traders (intraday/scalping): the $145–147 zone is as interesting as it is dangerous. The price is above the averages but resting on close pivots: false breakouts above $147 or false breaks below $143.5 are very likely. It makes sense to think more in terms of reaction to levels than chasing the price.

Position traders: the daily chart remains constructive as long as SOL stays above $137–140. The real structural test will be in the $150–158 zone. Until then, the current rise can be seen as an intermediate leg within a broader reconstruction process.

The main risk in a context like this is confusing a consolidation at the top with an imminent breakout and buying too late, just when the probability of correction increases. Conversely, those already long still have the underlying trend on their side, but must accept that, at these levels, volatility can work against them in very short times.

For those monitoring the Solana price in real-time, the levels to watch in the coming sessions remain:

Key supports: $143.5, $140, $137–138.

Key resistances: $147–149, $150, $155–158.

As always with volatile assets like Solana, indicators offer context, not certainties: the market can remain irrational longer than a single technical signal might suggest. Working with clear alternative scenarios and defined invalidation levels remains the best defense against false signals and sudden sentiment changes.

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With crypto risk appetite still constructive and BTC dominance elevated above 57%, Ethereum price is pressing into a crucial resistance pocket between $3,300 and $3,400.

ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Daily chart: Ethereum bias is bullish, but getting extended

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum price (ETHUSDT) is trading at $3,362, comfortably above all its key moving averages and near the upper edge of its recent volatility envelope.

Trend structure – EMAs

– Price: $3,362
– EMA 20: $3,153.68
– EMA 50: $3,149.85
– EMA 200: $3,297.05

All three EMAs are clustered below spot, with the 20- and 50-day essentially on top of each other and both now slightly above the 200-day. This is a constructive setup: the short and medium trend have flipped clearly bullish and have just reclaimed the long-term trend line. Moreover, it means recent dips have been consistently bought and the path of least resistance is still up. The gap between price and the 20/50 EMAs, though, is getting wide enough that a pullback to visit those averages would be normal rather than a sign of trend failure.

Momentum – RSI

– RSI (14d): 66.45

Daily RSI is pushing into the high 60s, just below textbook overbought territory. Buyers are clearly dominant, but we are no longer in the stealth accumulation zone; this is a late-phase impulse inside the uptrend. Historically, RSI in the mid-to-high 60s can sustain for some time in strong markets, but it also marks the zone where failed breakouts often start. That said, upside is still open, but the reward-to-risk for fresh, unhedged longs is less attractive than it was a week ago.

Trend quality – MACD

– MACD line: 66.52
– Signal line: 38.42
– Histogram: 28.09

MACD on the daily is firmly positive with the line comfortably above the signal and a solid positive histogram. That confirms the trend is not just a short squeeze; it is a sustained bullish leg. However, the distance between MACD and its signal is now fairly stretched, which often precedes momentum cooling or at least a sideways digestion. Bulls are in control, but the easy money phase of this leg is likely behind us.

Volatility & range – Bollinger Bands and ATR

– Bollinger middle band (20d): $3,120.95
– Upper band: $3,386.33
– Lower band: $2,855.56
– ATR (14d): $114.83

Ethereum price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band, sitting just a few dollars below it. That is classic late-stage momentum behavior: the trend is healthy, but price is living at the higher end of its recent volatility range. With a daily ATR of roughly $115, the market is signalling that a normal one-day swing of 3–4% in either direction is perfectly on the table. Trading near the upper band plus elevated ATR is a textbook setup for sharp intraday reversals if liquidity thins or BTC sneezes.

Short-term levels – daily pivots

– Pivot point (PP): $3,339.58
– R1: $3,401.17
– S1: $3,300.42

Spot is just above the daily pivot, trading between the pivot and R1. This is a mildly bullish intraday posture: buyers have defended the pivot and are probing overhead resistance. The key micro-battlefield on the daily is the $3,300–3,400 pocket. Holding above the pivot and turning R1 into support would keep the upward grind intact; slipping back below $3,300 would signal that this push is losing steam, at least temporarily.

Daily conclusion: The main scenario on the daily chart is bullish. Trend, momentum, and structure all support further upside, but the market is stretched enough that a pullback or sideways consolidation would be a healthy reset, not a shock.

1-hour chart: bullish, but momentum is flattening

The 1-hour timeframe is where you see the first signs of this leg getting a little tired. The trend is still up, but momentum is no longer exploding.

Trend structure – EMAs

– Price: $3,361.12
– EMA 20: $3,334.31
– EMA 50: $3,293.06
– EMA 200: $3,196.83
– Regime: bullish

Price is above all key intraday EMAs, with a clean staircase higher: 20 > 50 > 200 and spot above the 20. This is as straightforward a 1H uptrend as you will get. The distance from the 200 EMA is sizable, which confirms strength but also shows how far we have come without a proper 1H mean reversion. Consequently, short-term traders buying here are paying a premium versus the base of the move, which increases the risk of getting caught in a snap-back to the 50 or 200.

Momentum – RSI

– RSI (14h): 60.03

Hourly RSI is sitting around 60, a moderate bullish reading. The strong overbought readings are gone; this is more of a controlled grind than a runaway rally. That is constructive for trend continuity, but it also says the immediate upside impulse is no longer as strong as it was. Bulls are still dictating direction, just with less urgency.

Trend quality – MACD

– MACD line: 13.13
– Signal line: 12.91
– Histogram: 0.22

On the 1H, MACD remains slightly positive, but the line is almost glued to the signal and the histogram is close to flat. Momentum is still leaning bullish, yet there is no strong acceleration. This is what you typically see before one of two things: either a renewed push higher if buyers step back in, or a slow roll-over into a consolidation or shallow pullback.

Volatility & bands – Bollinger Bands and ATR

– Bollinger middle band: $3,341.34
– Upper band: $3,392.77
– Lower band: $3,289.91
– ATR (14h): $24.39

ETH is trading slightly above the mid-band on the hourly. The prior squeeze into the upper band has already cooled off, and price is now oscillating in the upper half of the band structure. With an hourly ATR around $24, intraday swings of roughly 0.7% are business as usual. This portrays a controlled advance rather than a blow-off move, but it also leaves room for a quick tag of either band if BTC injects volatility.

Intraday levels – hourly pivots

– Pivot point (PP): $3,362.71
– R1: $3,364.29
– S1: $3,359.53

Price is almost exactly on the hourly pivot cluster. R1 and S1 are compressed just a few dollars away, signalling a narrow equilibrium zone intraday. This is a market waiting for a catalyst. A clean break and hold above the $3,365 area opens the door for another attempt at the daily R1 region; slipping under $3,360 and holding below into the session would put the short-term focus back on support closer to the hourly 50 EMA around $3,290.

1H conclusion: Bullish regime, but momentum is flattening and the market is trading around an intraday equilibrium. ETH is in drift up or consolidate mode rather than a fresh breakout phase on this timeframe.

15-minute chart: tactical execution, micro uptrend

The 15-minute chart is mainly useful for timing, not for deciding directional bias. Right now it aligns with the higher timeframes, but it is more stretched.

Trend structure – EMAs

– Price: $3,361.19
– EMA 20: $3,344.96
– EMA 50: $3,335.87
– EMA 200: $3,291.57
– Regime: bullish

Price is stacked above all 15m EMAs with a clear positive alignment. The spread between spot and the 20/50 EMAs is modest, but the distance to the 200 EMA is substantial. In practice, that means the micro-trend is intact, yet the true value area of this whole short-term leg is far below current price. Any sudden volatility spike can quickly drag price back toward the 50 or even 200 EMA without doing real damage to the higher timeframes.

Momentum – RSI

– RSI (14, 15m): 64.33

On the 15-minute chart, RSI sits in a bullish but not extreme zone, very similar to the daily reading in character. Short-term, buyers are still pressing their advantage after recent upticks, but they are dancing close to levels where local pullbacks often emerge. It is an intraday environment where chasing green candles becomes riskier than buying controlled dips.

Trend quality – MACD

– MACD line: 12.11
– Signal line: 8.91
– Histogram: 3.19

On the 15-minute chart, MACD is clearly positive with a decent gap above its signal and a solid positive histogram. This is one of the few places where momentum is still visibly expanding. Very short-term, that favors continuation higher, but remember that lower timeframes flip first. If the histogram starts contracting while price fails to make new highs, that would be an early warning of intraday exhaustion.

Micro-volatility & pivots

– Bollinger middle band: $3,339.85
– Upper band: $3,379.78
– Lower band: $3,299.93
– ATR (14, 15m): $11.28
– Pivot point (PP): $3,362.73
– R1: $3,364.34
– S1: $3,359.58

ETH is trading just under the 15m pivot with bands wide enough to support $10–15 swings without changing the picture. ATR at $11 points to roughly 0.3% noise per 15 minutes, which is enough to stop out tight intraday trades but not yet a sign of panic. The clustering of the 15m and 1H pivots in the $3,360 area reinforces this region as the immediate tug-of-war level between scalp bulls and bears.

Market context: risk-on, BTC-dominant backdrop

Beyond Ethereum’s own chart, the macro crypto backdrop is constructive but not without risk. Total crypto market cap is around $3.36T and rising, yet 24h volume is down roughly 5%. BTC dominates at about 57.5%, with ETH sitting near 12% of total market cap. The setup is strong risk appetite, but capital is still heavily Bitcoin-centric.

The fear and greed index at 61 (Greed) confirms what the charts already imply: the market is leaning risk-on, but we are transitioning from bargain hunting into momentum chasing. In that phase, Ethereum often lags initial BTC impulses but then plays catch-up aggressively, which aligns with the current technical picture of a strong but slightly overextended trend.

Bullish scenario for Ethereum price

From the current configuration, the dominant scenario remains bullish, but it relies on the trend staying intact across timeframes.

What bulls want to see

On the daily, bulls want Ethereum price to hold above the $3,300 area, which roughly aligns with the daily S1 at $3,300.42 and sits comfortably above the 20/50 EMAs near $3,150. As long as ETH defends that higher-low structure, the uptrend remains clean. A sustained push through the daily R1 at $3,401.17 would likely trigger trend-followers and could send price probing the upper Bollinger Band and beyond.

On intraday charts, a decisive move above the $3,365–3,380 pocket, the 15m and 1H R1 region overlapping with the upper intraday bands, with rising RSI and expanding MACD histogram would signal another leg of momentum. In that case, daily RSI can easily ride into the low-70s before any significant correction, and ATR would frame 4–5% daily ranges as part of an ongoing trend rather than a top.

Bullish path, in plain terms: defend $3,300 on dips, convert $3,400 from resistance into support, and ride the trend while daily EMAs continue to slope up beneath price.

What invalidates the bullish case?

The bullish structure starts to crack if Ethereum price breaks and closes the day below the $3,300 zone and then loses the daily 20/50 EMAs clustered around $3,150. A daily close back under the 200 EMA at $3,297.05 would be the first serious warning the current leg has topped for now.

On intraday charts, an early warning would be 1H price slipping below the 50 EMA, near $3,293, with MACD turning negative and RSI failing to recover above 50 on bounces. That would mark a shift from trend with pullbacks into range or distribution. In that environment, daily MACD would likely start rolling over from its elevated level, confirming waning momentum.

Bearish scenario for Ethereum price

The bearish case does not dominate yet, but the ingredients for a corrective phase are in place: extended daily momentum, euphoric positioning creeping in, and ETH trading near the upper end of its volatility envelope.

What bears need

First, bears need to win the $3,300–3,340 battle. A break and sustained trade below the daily pivot at $3,339.58, followed by loss of S1 at $3,300.42, would signal buyers stepping back. With daily ATR at roughly $115, once that pocket gives way, a slide into the $3,200–$3,230 area is a routine move, not an outlier. That zone sits closer to the 200 EMA and would test the conviction of medium-term bulls.

If selling accelerates and ETH closes a daily candle below the 20/50 EMAs, around $3,150, sentiment will likely flip from buy the dip to wait and see. MACD would start to compress toward its signal line; if it crosses lower while RSI breaks under 50, the narrative shifts decisively from trending market to corrective market on the daily timeframe.

On lower timeframes, the first tactical signal for bears would be successive failures at the $3,365–3,400 area with 15m and 1H MACD diverging, meaning price making similar or lower highs while MACD and RSI roll over. That pattern often leads to a fast mean reversion into the 1H 50 EMA or even the 200 EMA, effectively flushing late longs without necessarily ending the higher-timeframe trend.

Bearish path, in plain terms: reject $3,365–3,400, lose $3,300, then pressure the $3,150–$3,200 support confluence. If those levels fold on a closing basis, bears gain genuine control of the tape.

What invalidates the bearish case?

The near-term bearish scenario is invalidated if Ethereum price can consolidate above $3,400, turning that region into a stable floor rather than a ceiling. If price can repeatedly test higher levels without dragging RSI back below 50 on the daily and while MACD stays comfortably positive, any dips are more likely to be routine pullbacks within a continuing uptrend, not the start of a broader reversal.

How to think about positioning from here

Ethereum is in a bullish phase on the daily chart, supported by an uptrending structure and constructive macro crypto conditions. At the same time, it is trading close to the upper edge of its recent range with stretched daily momentum and a market sentiment profile tilted toward greed. That mix usually favors positioning that respects the trend but is honest about downside risk.

For directional traders, the key is timeframe discipline: the daily signal is still up, but the 1H and 15m show a maturing leg rather than a fresh breakout. This argues against aggressive new longs at market unless you are comfortable sitting through a potential pullback toward the daily EMAs. In practical terms, it is more rational to focus on how ETH behaves around $3,300 support and $3,400 resistance than to anchor on a specific price target.

Volatility is elevated but not extreme: a $100+ daily range is normal right now. That means both upside and downside moves can be sharp enough to trigger emotional decisions if size and leverage are not calibrated. Tight stops in noisy intraday zones like $3,360 can get harvested easily, while very wide stops can turn a tactical trade into an unintended swing position.

The honest read: Ethereum price is bullish until it is not, but the odds of a shakeout or sideways digestion are meaningfully higher now than they were earlier in the leg. Being aware of the key inflection levels, specifically $3,300 support, $3,400 resistance, and $3,150–$3,200 as deeper support, and respecting the current volatility regime matters more than trying to nail the next $50 move.

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Disclaimer: This article is a technical and market-structure analysis, not investment advice. Markets are volatile and unpredictable; always do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and never rely solely on a single analysis or indicator when making trading decisions.

In his latest analysis on shifting macro conditions, arthur hayes lays out a case for a 2026 bitcoin liquidity rebound after a difficult 2025.

From 2025 underperformance to a 2026 liquidity turn

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argues that Bitcoin‘s weak performance in 2025 was not a verdict on so-called crypto narratives but a straightforward dollar-credit story. Instead, he frames the year as a test of how markets react when US dollar liquidity tightens and cross-asset correlations break down.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin lagged both gold and US tech stocks through 2025, even as it still behaved “as expected” under tightening financial conditions. However, he notes that this divergence did not invalidate the idea of Bitcoin as either digital gold or a high-beta proxy for tech, but rather exposed how those labels can be misleading when liquidity shrinks.

Hayes points out that, in his view, the real story was that Bitcoin underperformed while gold and the Nasdaq 100 rose for different structural reasons, despite falling dollar liquidity. That said, he stresses that this performance gap sets the stage for 2026, when he expects conditions to reverse.

Gold, AI equities and the liquidity puzzle

On gold, Hayes argues that the bid is now dominated by sovereign balance sheets rather than retail speculation. Moreover, he links the metal’s strength to growing distrust of US Treasury exposure following past episodes where assets were frozen, highlighting that central banks behave as price-insensitive buyers.

He sums up this risk bluntly: “If the US president steals your money, it’s an instant zero. Does it then matter what price you buy gold at?” In this framing, gold demand is less about short-term trading and more about hedging political and sanctions risk.

Turning to equities, Hayes leans into an industrial-policy reading of the AI trade. He claims the US and China both treat “winning AI” as a strategic objective, which dulls normal market discipline and helps explain why the Nasdaq decoupled from his dollar-liquidity index in 2025. However, this decoupling is precisely what leads him back to liquidity as the main variable for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, Nasdaq and the role of dollar liquidity

Hayes writes that Bitcoin and the Nasdaq typically rise when dollar liquidity expands, and the “only problem” is the recent divergence between tech stocks and his liquidity indicators. He repeatedly returns to what he calls the “vicissitudes of dollar liquidity” as the primary driver to monitor, rather than sentiment shifts or narrative changes.

In his view, the key takeaway for 2026 is straightforward: Bitcoin needs expanding dollar liquidity to regain momentum. Moreover, he contends that both Bitcoin and dollar liquidity bottomed at roughly the same time, arguing that the next major move will depend more on renewed credit expansion than on speculative mania.

This is where the phrase arthur hayes becomes shorthand for a broader macro thesis. He is not simply calling for higher prices; he is mapping Bitcoin’s path to the same forces that shape credit, central-bank balance sheets and government policy.

The three-pillar case for a 2026 liquidity rebound

Hayes’s 2026 outlook rests on a sharp rebound in US dollar credit creation built on three main channels. First is a growing Federal Reserve balance sheet driven by Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Second is commercial bank lending into “strategic industries.” Third is lower mortgage rates triggered by policy-directed demand for mortgage-backed securities.

In his account, quantitative tightening faded as a major headwind in late 2025, with QT ending in December and RMP beginning as a new, steady buyer of assets. He claims RMP “at a minimum” is expanding the Fed’s balance sheet by $40 billion per month, and he expects that pace to rise as US government funding needs grow.

The second pillar is bank credit creation, which he says accelerated in 4Q25 as large lenders became more willing to extend loans into areas where government equity stakes or offtake agreements reduce default risk. However, he also flags this as a politically driven process, not a purely market-driven one.

The third pillar is housing. Hayes cites Trump-backed directives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to deploy $200 billion toward purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Moreover, he expects this support to push mortgage rates lower, potentially rekindling a familiar wealth effect in housing and, by extension, more consumer credit.

He ties all three elements together with a simple conclusion: if liquidity turns decisively higher, Bitcoin should follow that trend. That said, he presents this as a macro timing framework rather than a promise of a straight line upward.

Adding risk: MSTR, Metaplanet and Zcash

Against this backdrop, Hayes says he is actively adding risk for 2026. He describes himself as a “degen speculator” and notes that Maelstrom is already “nearly fully invested,” yet he still wants “MOAR risk” to capture convex upside if Bitcoin reclaims higher levels.

Rather than using perpetual futures or options, Hayes is long Strategy (MSTR) and Japan’s Metaplanet to gain levered exposure via corporate balance sheets. Moreover, he views these equities as high-torque expressions of a renewed Bitcoin bull market that can outperform the underlying asset.

His timing argument rests on valuation relativity. He compares each company’s “DAT” to Bitcoin priced in the relevant currency (yen for Metaplanet and dollars for Strategy) and says those ratios are near the low end of the past two years. He notes they are “down substantially” from their mid-2025 peaks, which he views as an appealing entry zone.

Hayes adds an important trigger level: “If Bitcoin can retake $110,000, investors will get the itch to go long Bitcoin through these vehicles. Given the leverage embedded in the capital structure of these businesses, they will outperform Bitcoin on the upside.” However, he also implies that this leverage cuts both ways in a downturn.

Continued Zcash accumulation and ECC’s pivot

Alongside the equity bets, Hayes highlights continued accumulation of Zcash (ZEC). He argues that the departure of developers from Electric Coin Company (ECC) should not be read as a bearish signal for the privacy-focused network.

“We continue to add to our Zcash position. The departure of the devs at ECC is not bearish. I firmly believe they will ship better, more impactful products within their own for-profit entity. I’m thankful for the opportunity to buy discounted ZEC from weak hands,” he writes, underscoring his long-term conviction.

At press time, MSTR traded at $179.33, offering a real-time reference point for his leveraged Bitcoin-equity thesis. Moreover, this price anchors his broader argument that valuation dispersion across Bitcoin-linked assets can offer attractive entry points ahead of a possible 2026 liquidity resurgence.

Outlook: liquidity first, narratives second

Hayes’s “Frowny Cloud” essay ultimately prioritizes dollar liquidity over narratives when explaining Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance and potential 2026 recovery. In his framework, sovereign gold buying, AI-driven industrial policy and housing support programs are all parts of the same credit cycle.

If his three-pillar view on US dollar liquidity proves correct, Bitcoin and its levered plays such as Strategy, Metaplanet and Zcash could stand to benefit disproportionately. However, as Hayes himself implies, the trade is only as strong as the next leg of credit expansion.

Investor appetite for risk assets is rising as the prospect of a sustained bitcoin rally converges with the sharp drop in U.S. Treasury bond volatility.

MOVE index hits lowest level since October 2021

The ICE BofA MOVE index, a widely tracked gauge of expected volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds over four weeks, has fallen to 58, its lowest reading since October 2021, according to TradingView. Moreover, this marks the extension of a decline that began in April last year, signaling a notably calmer backdrop for the global bond market.

The U.S. Treasury market is viewed as the cornerstone of global finance, with outstanding credit quality and an extremely low perceived risk of default. Its debt is widely deployed as collateral across loans, derivatives, and other instruments, effectively underpinning much of the world’s financial plumbing and day-to-day liquidity.

When Treasury prices swing violently, credit conditions tend to tighten and lenders become cautious, which reduces risk-taking across both the real economy and financial markets. However, when price moves are subdued, credit creation generally becomes easier, encouraging investors to allocate more capital toward riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies and growth equities.

Bitcoin trades near $96,300 as volatility sinks

The current bond market backdrop is increasingly supportive of rallies in bitcoin, which is trading around $96,300, as well as in major tech stocks. That said, this calmer environment follows a sharp reset in digital asset prices during 2022 and a powerful price recovery through 2023, underlining how macro conditions can swiftly change sentiment.

Bitcoin has already rallied about 10% since the start of the year, pushing analysts to forecast an advance beyond $100,000 for the first time since mid-November. The combination of subdued Treasury bond swings and renewed institutional interest is strengthening expectations that the ongoing bitcoin rally could extend into six-figure territory.

Correlation with Nasdaq 100 and MOVE index remains key

While some supporters describe bitcoin as digital gold, its trading history shows a closer relationship with Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index. Moreover, it has generally moved in the opposite direction to the MOVE index, which tracks implied U.S. Treasury bond volatility and acts as a barometer of stress in government debt markets.

This inverse relationship with the MOVE index persisted during bitcoin’s sharp crash in 2022 and throughout the bull run that began in 2023. In practice, periods of falling bond volatility have often coincided with stronger demand for cryptocurrencies and growth shares, reinforcing the narrative that a move index decline can act as a tailwind for speculative assets.

Supportive backdrop but lingering macro risks

The current drop in Treasury volatility does not guarantee further gains, and no single signal should be treated as a flawless timing tool. However, the present mix of calmer bond markets, solid price momentum, and continued bitcoin etf inflows is adding another layer to the bullish thesis for digital assets.

Markets still face potential headwinds, especially if geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensify or if frustration over delays to the Clarity Act crypto regulation bill grows. Such developments could quickly reduce risk appetite, reminding traders that even a strong bitcoin rally remains vulnerable to sudden shifts in macro and policy expectations.

In summary, the lowest Treasury volatility since October 2021, as captured by the MOVE index reading of 58, is helping support the broader case for a continued upswing in bitcoin and other risk assets, even as investors stay alert to geopolitical and regulatory risks.

Amid inflation and financial uncertainty, bitcoin credit argentina is emerging as a bridge between digital savings and real-world spending for millions of users.

Argentina pushes crypto deeper into everyday finance

Argentina continues to lead global crypto adoption as citizens search for options beyond a fragile financial system. High inflation, currency depreciation, and strict banking rules have pushed millions toward digital assets. Bitcoin already serves as a popular store of value. However, using it for daily spending often forces users to sell assets they want to hold.

Lemon’s latest move directly addresses this gap by linking Bitcoin holdings with real-world credit access. The launch comes as traditional credit remains out of reach for a large part of the population. Moreover, the country faces structural financial issues that banks have struggled to solve.

Banks still require credit history, formal income proof, and long approval timelines. Many Argentines work outside formal employment structures, which leaves them excluded from basic financial tools. By allowing users to unlock peso credit through their Bitcoin holdings, Lemon removes several long-standing barriers at once and offers an alternative path to financing.

How Lemon’s Bitcoin-backed card actually works

Lemon’s new Visa card lets users access peso-denominated credit using Bitcoin as collateral. Instead of selling BTC, customers deposit it as security and receive a credit line based on the asset’s value. They can then spend pesos at any merchant that accepts Visa, just like with a traditional credit card.

Repayments also take place in pesos, so users maintain long-term exposure to Bitcoin while still covering local expenses. This structure differs sharply from prepaid crypto cards that convert assets at the point of sale. Moreover, the credit approach offers more flexibility in how and when people spend.

The credit model protects customers from mistimed asset sales during volatile markets. As Bitcoin prices rise, available credit may also expand, which rewards long-term holders. That said, users still carry market risk on their collateral. The system nonetheless removes dependence on banks while keeping familiar payment experiences.

From prepaid cards to an asset based lending argentina model

This innovation places Argentina at the center of a growing shift toward asset based lending argentina. The bitcoin backed visa card turns crypto from a passive hedge into a practical financial resource. It shows how platforms now build products around day-to-day use rather than pure speculation.

Unlike prepaid solutions, the lemon bitcoin credit card works as a revolving line of credit secured by BTC. However, the spending currency remains the peso, which keeps the experience intuitive for local users. This setup also helps merchants accept payments without touching crypto themselves.

As a result, crypto payments everyday use becomes more realistic in a market plagued by inflation. The card infrastructure sits on traditional rails such as Visa, while the funding logic draws from decentralized finance. This hybrid model could set a precedent for other emerging economies.

Why Bitcoin collateral can replace banks and credit scores

Traditional credit relies heavily on personal financial records and formal employment, which excludes millions globally. Lemon instead uses a bitcoin collateral lending model to power its new product. Bitcoin collateral guarantees repayment without demanding income statements, employment verification, or credit scores.

This approach aligns with decentralized finance principles while staying user-friendly. Moreover, it shifts control back to the borrower. Users decide how much risk they take and when to repay, within the platform’s limits.

The platform focuses on asset value rather than personal background, which reduces discrimination and bureaucracy. This structure makes credit accessible to freelancers, gig workers, and young people just entering the workforce. It also illustrates how crypto credit for argentines can function at scale.

Why this crypto credit card matters for Argentina’s economy

Argentina’s economy has struggled for years with persistent inflation and currency instability. Peso savings lose purchasing power quickly, pushing citizens toward alternative stores of value such as Bitcoin. However, liquidity for everyday expenses has remained limited for many holders.

The crypto credit card model bridges that gap by allowing users to spend without disposing of their inflation hedge. It offers peso credit with bitcoin as collateral rather than selling coins outright. That said, borrowers still need to manage volatility risk on the underlying asset.

This approach also reduces reliance on predatory lending. Many Argentines turn to high-interest informal loans when banks reject them. Crypto-backed credit instead introduces transparent terms and predictable conditions. Users can clearly understand collateral requirements and repayment obligations.

Bitcoin credit argentina moves closer to everyday utility

Lemon’s launch marks a shift in how Bitcoin fits into daily life across the country. The bitcoin credit argentina framework transforms BTC from a long-term hedge into a functional financial tool. Users gain spending power while retaining ownership of their digital assets.

This balance may define the next stage of crypto adoption in inflation-hit economies. Moreover, it underscores how digital assets can support real economic activity rather than mere trading. The Bitcoin-backed Visa card positions Argentina as a leader in crypto-powered credit innovation.

As global financial systems evolve, such models could reshape how credit is issued and who can access it. Argentina’s experience will likely be closely watched by policymakers, fintech founders, and crypto investors looking for scalable inclusion strategies.

In summary, Lemon’s product connects Bitcoin savings with accessible peso credit, offering Argentines a new way to manage volatility, preserve value, and participate more fully in the formal economy.