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XRP (XRPUSD) has been on a Bear Cycle since its July 18 2025 All Time High (ATH). Technically its whole Bear Cycle so far has been a Channel Down, which along with the majority of high caps, has been testing for the past 30 days the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) as Support.
Having already started its new Bearish Leg following the January 06 Lower High, it appears that the price is unable to even test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for a technical rejection and continuation of the Bear Cycle. As long as it fails to do so, the current Bearish Leg eyes the 1W MA100 and if broken, may complete a -40.24% decline (similar to both previous Bearish Legs) at 1.4500.
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$XRP #xrp #signals #Ripple #XRPUSD #XRPUSDT

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains under heavy pressure since its October 2025 All Time High (ATH) but the BTC/GOLD ratio reveals that the real selling pressure in terms of the precious yellow metal has been boiling up for some time before that date.
In fact the ratio's last High was in August 2025, which technically was a Lower High as the true Top for BTC/GOLD's Cycle was in December 2024. Mind-blowing revelation indeed and that undoubtedly draws similarities with the previous Cycle, which also had a Double Top in 2021.
The key indicator here is the 1M RSI of the ratio. It has a Lower Lows trend-line, which has priced all Cycle bottoms since 2015. More recently (since January 2019) there is a diverging Lower Lows trend-line (dashed) also. The tight zone within those two trend-lines may be holding the key for this Cycle's bottom.
This shows that the bottom may be closer than we may expect but the last Bear Cycle showed a slowing down behavior once it approached the RSI Lower Lows and turned sideways before it finally made contact with it 6 months later. For the real BTC/GOLD price action though, the downtrend didn't slow down as much, first breaking violently below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and finding bottom 6 months later as mentioned just above the 1M MA100 (green trend-line).
If we have a decreasing rate on the MA bottoms, we can expect the current Cycle to bottom below the 1M MA100 this time, closer to the 1M MA150 (red trend-line).
So closer than it looks or not in terms of bottom, the Bear Cycle is entering its 2nd and final Phase.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been currently forming the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. A technically bearish formation, this Right Shoulder is contained below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which may be the final test point before rejection and initiation of the 2nd Stage of the Bear Cycle.
In any case, a break below the Higher Lows trend-line, which is the pattern's Support, kick-starts the next selling phase regardless. H&S patterns typically target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the Shoulder's Low, which interestingly enough sits exactly on the 1385 Support of the April 09 2025 Low! Natural expectation as we will be getting closer to the end of the year, is $1400 at least.
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$ETH #ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSD #ETHUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to consolidate within its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a zone whose importance we've covered on various previous analyses. This time we re-introduce a old concept, which was always an integral part of our long-term Cycle analyses, the 1W RSI Channel.
As you can see, the 1W RSI has bounced on its 0.786 Fibonacci level, a trend-line where it always hits and rebounds historically (blue circles) before completing Stage 1 of the Bear Cycle. In the previous two Bear Cycles, this has coincided with the 1W MA50-100 consolidation. After that, the RSI rebounded and tested the 0.618 Fib (orange circles), which again in the last two Cycles coincided with a 1W MA50 test, and got rejected (initiating Stage 2) towards the bottom of the Channel for the eventual Cycle bottom (green circles).
As a result, it is likely to see one last rally for that 1W MA50/ 0.618 Fib rejection (unless the 1W MA100 breaks/ closes first) before the eventual Cycle bottom on Fib 1.0 (Channel bottom). That is expected to be on the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) at least ($50000), which is where the previous Cycle bottomed in November 2022.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Just some fun chart trivia but we can't deny the obvious. And that's that Litecoin (LTCUSD) has been printing an (almost) identical price action since 2017 with Monero (XMRUSD).
That's up until a little less than a year ago when the two started to diverge aggressively as XMR (orange trend-line) entered a massive rally that broke above its ATH Resistance of the past 2 Cycles and made a new All Time High (ATH), while LTC has been under Lower Highs. However it hasn't broken below its Bull Cycle consolidation, which also shared with XMR before the latter broke aggressive to the upside.
So what do you think? Can LTC follow XMR's lead and make an ATH or it will continue dropping into the new Bear Cycle?
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$LTC $XMR #Litecoin #LTC #Monero #XMR #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has turned its 1W Ichimoku Cloud red following an impressive run of more than 2 straight years of green. Historically, every time this development took place, the market was already on a Bear Cycle.
Technically this is the latest signal to confirm the 2026 Bear Cycle and the last times it took place, BTC bottomed at -68% (on all cases) from the following High rejection on the 1D MA200 (black trend-line). Based on the current position of the 1D MA200 a -68% decline would have the market test $35k.
Since however BTC bottomed on its 1W MA350 (red trend-line) during its last Bear Cycle, we should be expecting to hit it again. Based on its current trajectory, that should take place on $55000 at least. And given the fact that since 2018, every Bear Cycle bottom is a +150 MA lower on 1W (2018 bottom on 1W MA200, 2022 bottom on 1W MA350), we can assume that the 1W MA500 (grey trend-line) could get hit. That creates a potential fair bottom zone within $55000 - $40000, for use of optimistic - pessimistic scenarios.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is headed towards a 1D MA200 rejection, which as mentioned is what historically kickstarts Phase 2 of the Bear Cycle.
This excellent indicator that illustrates not only the Halving events but also the most optimal Sell and Buy levels based on the Fibonacci Time extension levels shows that the next point of interest is the 4.618 Fibonacci Time extension on the final week of September 2026, where the Cycle is expected to bottom.
With the next Halving estimated in April 2028, we will still be far from the start of the Profit Taking Zone (green vertical layers), which historically starts taking place around 38 weeks (266 days) after the Halving, but the 4.618 Time Fib its technically ideal for long-term buying again. Based on this model the price should be at least at $60000 by that time.
We also see that the price didn't even reach the orange Rainbow Wave on this Bull Cycle, confirming the Law of Diminishing Returns. But the timing of the Fibonacci Time extensions, as we first did more than 7 years ago, worked again to perfection. And this is why on this market (and as a matter of fact on most of them), it is more important to plan buying and selling based on time rather than absolute prices.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Crypto Fear & Greed index turned to greed for the first time in 3 months. Technically this was confirmed by BTC breaking (and closing) above its 94650 Resistance for the first time in 2 months.
With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) turning into a Support and getting confirmed by holding upon the January 08 test, we can see the emergence of a short-term Channel Up.
As we've explained for over a month now, this is potentially the typical market reaction that previous Bear Cycles have done historically, where after completing the first strong decline that gets most of investors off guard, it makes the first counter-trend rally (dead cat bounce) that technically tests the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This time, the rebound is being made after the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) got tested and held.
With the 1D RSI about to enter the Overbought Zone (70.00 and above), where the last two times (October 06 and July 14 2025) it got rejected, we may see the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up extending to around +17.50% (where the previous one was rejected), make a Higher High, then pull-back to re-test the 1D MA50 and then finally go for the benchmark test of the 1D MA200.
We estimate a potential Bear Cycle rejection Zone within $102000 - 105000, before the Cycle starts Phase 2 with a new long-term sell-off.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Last time we looked at Monero (XMRUSD) was exactly 3 months ago (October 14 2025, see chart below) giving a buy signal at the bottom of its long-term Channel Up, which quickly hit our Target:

This time we are turning bearish long-term as the price is not only approaching the top of its 2-year Channel Up (green) but also the Top Fib of its 8-year Channel Up. At the same time the 1M RSI is vastly overbought at 85.00, typical of the Cycle Top of the previous two Cycles.
With the last one bottoming on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, just above the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), we estimate that the emerging Bear Cycle will hit at least $215 before bottoming.
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$XMR #Monero #XMR #XMRUSD #XMRUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to consolidate during these (almost) past 2 months as it is headed towards a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) test, where it was rejected on the last Bear Cycle and started its Stage 2. This Stage is what typically leads to the Cycle bottom, which is essentially the most optimal level for a long-term investor to enter/ buy.
One of the best indicators to call out a Cycle bottom is the Net Unrealize Profit Loss (NUPL). As you can see (black trend-line), when this has historically hit its green line, BTC was on excellent buy opportunity levels (green vertical zones) as the Bear Cycle bottom was priced immediately after.
The last Cycle bottom also happened to be exactly on the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), which the March 2020 COVID flash crash also approached. As a result, it would be no surprise to see BTC hit that level on the next Cycle bottom as well, which according to its current trajectory, this test could be around $50000. But as mentioned, the strongest buy indication would be the NUPL touching its green trend-line regardless of BTC's price at the moment.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has closed the last 2M candle on a MACD Bearish Cross. Every time this has happened historically (2 times), Bitcoin has dropped by -67.66% and -68.75% from he top of that candle.
If history is repeated, a new -67.66% would deliver $36500 as the bottom of the current Bear Cycle. This time though, that would be below the MA50 (blue trend-line), so a range of 44500 - 36500 might be more appropriate.
In any case, this latest Bearish Cross comes as another confirmation of a 2026 Bear Cycle.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Binance Coin (BNBUSD) has been consolidating for 7 weeks (almost 2 months) ever since the November 7 2025 Low on top of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The Bear Cycle that has started on the October Top, can technically be the new Bearish Leg of BNB's 4-year Channel Up.
Having already made a 1D MA50/100 Bearish Cross, which brought the Low of Phase 1 on the previous (2022) Bear Cycle, we now focus on whether this 7-week consolidation will lead to a 0.5 Fibonacci retracement test (as on April 04 2022) or straight to Phase 2.
Technically, in order for Phase 2 to begin, BNB should break below its 2-year Higher Lows trend-line. That is the confirmation. Right now the price action is fairly symmetrical to 2022, being around the 0.618 Fib of a potential -71.81% total Bear Cycle decline (as in 2022).
As a result, $400 is still a possible Target but since the 1W MA250 (red trend-line) was what supported the previous Bear Cycle, a fair 'modest' Target would be $525, which would make contact with both the 1W MA250 and the 0.236 Fib.
Nevertheless, a good level for a long-term investor to start buying, regardless of the price tag, would be when the 1W RSI will get oversold (at 30.00).
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$BNB #bnb #BNBUSD #BNBUSDT #signals #BinanceCoin

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has always priced its bottom below its Realized Price (red trend-line) on every signal Bear Cycle it had.
In fact the bottom was considerably lower than the Realized Price. The last two Bear Cycles (2022 and 2018) have had fairly similar bottoms, dropping by -33.80% and -35.45% respectively from the moment the price broke below the Realized Price.
Based on where the Realized Price is now (which by the time BTC hits it, will be lower) a rounded up -30% decline would have us reach $39000. The Realized Price deviation band (orange cloud) however would be just under $45000 towards the end of the year (which is roughly when we expect the Bear Cycle to end)
As a result, a fair bottom zone could be $45000 - $39000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has already started its new Bear Cycle since its October All Time High (ATH). We're past that, we've covered this extensively during the past 3 months. What's more important now is to cover the next stages, which is something we've started doing recently, in order to get a better understanding of the potential course of this Bear Cycle.
Right now BTC is consolidating within its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which is a familiar pattern during all prior Bear Cycle, where after a 1W MA50 rejection, it starts Stage 2 of the Cycle.
The last Bear Cycle bottomed exactly on the 1W MA350 (black trend-line). The two before it, hit the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) before rebounding (and it was a secondary Low). As a result the 1W MA300-350 form a strong Support Zone and is the strongest candidate for the new bottom as well. Contact with the 1W MA350 (based on its current trajectory) should be made around $50000. A 45-50k potential Buy Zone would be more fair.
In any case, based on BTC's parabolic growth curve and the diminishing Fibonacci extension on each Bull Cycle Top, we expect the next ATH to be on its 1.382 Fib extension, i.e. around $180000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

XRP (XRPUSD) is on a strong 2-week rise following a Low late in 2025 on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). This rally is about to test its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 months.
Practically, the market has been ranging between the 1W MA50-100 Zone in a similar way it did back during the previous Bear Cycle. Basically this is not the first time we present to you this chart, we first published it 2 months ago claiming that XRP has already started its new Bear Cycle following its July 2025 All Time High (ATH) and that this Cycle is the Bearish Leg of the market's 5-year Channel Up pattern.
If the market continues to replicate the 2021/22 structure, then this 1W MA50 test should produce a rejection that will take us to the 2nd stage of the Bear Cycle, which is a break below the 1W MA100 within 2 months time and an eventual bottom on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and 1M MA100 (red trend-line) test at $0.9000.
Notice also how similar the 1W RSI structures are among the two Bear Cycle fractals, with the current rebound taking place on he Symmetrical Support (blue arrows) just like it did on January 22 2022.
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$XRP #xrp #XRPUSD #XRPUSDT #signals #Ripple

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and especially the altcoin market, has been rising strongly every since Maduro's capture by the U.S., which is the most dominant macro geopolitical event since perhaps Trump's global tariffs a little less than a year ago.
So what does that mean, that such an act is good for the crypto market? Well not quite. Macro economic and geopolitical unrest events like this have acted as catalysts for major market movements that rarely are to the upside.
Some may argue that BTC is purely acting on its original inception role, a safe haven against times of uncertainty/ volatility. But what we see on these first trading days of 2026, is that the market is so far following the historical Bear Cycle print that all previous cycles followed.
What's that? It broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in over 2 months, marking the first Low of the new Bear Cycle. What all previous Bear Cycles did when that break-out took place, was a short-term rebound (counter trend rally) that always hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and got rejected. In 2 times out of 3, it also tested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the recent Low.
After that 1D MA200 test was concluded, the bearish trend was resumed and the price bottomed towards the end of that year. In 2 out of 3 Cycles again, the bottom was at or below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Cycle Low. Only the 2014 Cycle differed but that's to be expected as it was the first one and at the same time most aggressive. The current 0.382 Fib with a Target price of $56700, would be much less aggressive, which is natural due to the Theory of Diminishing Returns and Bitcoin's price stabilization as mass adoption kicks in more and more with each passing Cycle.
As a result, what we still think (presented this possibility over a month ago) the market will do now is rally towards 100k and then start Phase 2 of the Bear Cycle to bottom at least on $56700.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is testing yet again its Lower Highs trend-line, which is the Resistance that started on the October 07 2025 All Time High (ATH). This has failed to break two times already, causing strong rejections but this time we may finally see it breaking.
The reason, apart from the bullish RSI on Higher Lows, is that today's 1D candle is so far finding support on the 1D MA50 for the first time since the downtrend started and if it closes above it, it will be a first.
The result can be a Channel Up, which technically is a Bear Flag inside the new Bear Cycle, whose potential symmetrical +31.47% Bullish Leg can target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 3600.
Why is the 1D MA200 so important? Because it's been the technical Target of every first Dead-cat-bounce during ETH's previous Bear Cycles.
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$ETH #ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSD #ETHUSDT #signals

Happy New Year with our best wishes to you and your loved ones!
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed the year with a feat that it has historically never done before. And that's closing a year in red (losses) within a Bull Cycle.
So far, the traditional technical pattern was that after a Bear Cycle, BTC posted at least 3 straight green years. The last, post-Halving year was always green (gains).
That held up until yesterday with a red yearly (12-month) candle after two bullish ones in 2023 and 2024. Could that be the end of the traditional 4-year Cycle Theory? Well we don't believe that quite yet. As long as the market makes a new All Time High (or at least Cycle High in the decades that will follow market maturity and mass adoption) on year 4, then the 4-year Cycle Theory should remain the dominant pattern.
Nevertheless, that was a historic first for Bitcoin and we couldn't be more excited on what the future holds! Happy New Year again everybody!
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Not much analysis is needed to address today's topic. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) will close tomorrow not only the year (2025) but also the month (December). This is a critical closing as the 1M (monthly) candle is currently red and if it closes this way (i.e. roughly below $90300), BTC will complete three straight red months.
Why this s important? Because during its 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle, it never had three bearish 1M candles in a row and that could be a definitive confirmation that the new Bear Cycle is already underway.
In fact it would be almost a perfect match with the first 3 months of the previous Bear Cycle, which were also 3 straight red ones (November 2021 - January 2022), also supported by the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). A lifeline of encouragement would be however that, following those first 3 red candles of the previous Bear Cycle, the market found support on the 1W MA100 and rebounded the next two months (but of course only to drop more aggressively in the later stages).
It has to be noted also at this point that 3 straight red months has historically been a strong feature of Bear Cycle activity. In fact only twice Bitcoin displayed 3 straight red months during Bull Cycles: April - June 2021 and July - September 2019.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) touched its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today for the first time after 2 months (since October 28) and immediately got rejected. This is potentially an early sign that not only does the market remain bearish, but it prepares a strong move downwards.
However, that can't be confirmed as long as the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) holds, which as you see has been tested and held (closed all candles above it) 3 times since November 21.
The above mentioned MA trend-lines go along a Lower Highs and Higher Lows trend-line respectively, acting as the Resistance and Support of the market since its October All Time High (ATH).
As a result, if the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, we expect that counter-trend rally in early 2026 to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and this at least $100000, like BTC did during all its previous Bear Cycles. If on the other hand the Higher Lows trend-line breaks first, we expect a minimum -14.96% decline (the least drop sequence since the start of the Bear Cycle) targeting $77000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals