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The Supreme Court of the United States has officially ruled that President Trump's tariffs are illegal, in a 6-3 ruling.
The US now faces $150+ billion in potential tariff refunds.
Key points from the ruling:
The Court held that IEEPA (a law meant for national emergencies like sanctions) does not give the president authority to unilaterally impose tariffs (import taxes). The Constitution assigns taxing powers, including tariffs, primarily to Congress.This invalidates broad "reciprocal" tariffs on imports from nearly every country, plus some tied to issues like fentanyl/drug flows from Canada, Mexico, and China.Not all tariffs are affected — ones based on other laws (e.g., steel/aluminum under Section 232 national security provisions) remain in place.Potential refunds: Estimates suggest $130–175 billion+ in already-collected tariffs could be refunded to importers/companies through customs processes or court claims, creating a massive fiscal hit (possibly adding trillions to deficits over a decade if not replaced).
Markets reacted with relief: Stocks rose, the dollar weakened slightly, and risk-on sentiment improved as fears of escalating trade wars, higher inflation, and global slowdown eased.
Now, discussing this from a crypto perspective:
This ruling is largely bullish for cryptocurrencies in the short to medium term. Here's why:
Reduced macro uncertainty: Tariffs fueled protectionism, potential retaliation from trading partners (e.g., China/EU), and higher costs/inflation — all of which hurt "risk assets" like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. Crypto thrives in environments with lower trade barriers, stable growth, and easing inflation pressures. The ruling avoids a full-blown trade war scenario, which historically correlates with crypto dips during economic stress.
Risk-on rally potential: Early market reactions show equities up and dollar softer — classic setups for crypto pumps. Bitcoin and major coins often rally on USD weakness (as it's priced in dollars) or when global risk appetite improves. If refunds flow back to businesses/consumers, it could boost spending and liquidity, indirectly supporting speculative assets like crypto.Policy shift implications for Trump admin: Tariffs were a big revenue source Trump touted as an alternative to taxes. With this blocked, fiscal pressure rises — deficits could balloon without offsets. Some analysts speculate the administration might pivot harder toward crypto-friendly moves (e.g., accelerating Bitcoin strategic reserve proposals, deregulation via SEC/CFTC, or pro-crypto legislation) to generate alternative economic wins or appeal to his base/tech donors. Trump has been vocal about supporting crypto since his 2024 campaign, so this could indirectly accelerate that agenda.
Potential downsides (limited): Massive refunds/budget holes could spark short-term volatility or risk-off moves if it leads to broader fiscal chaos. However, current sentiment leans positive — no major sell-off in crypto expected from this alone.
Overall, this removes a significant headwind for global/digital assets. Crypto markets love clarity and reduced geopolitical/economic friction, so expect upward pressure in the coming sessions (check real-time prices on BTC/ETH for confirmation). If you're holding or trading, this feels like a net positive catalyst unless something unexpected unfolds in follow-up actions.

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