bitcoin

Bitcoin is once again testing the previous bull market high, a level last seen at the peak of 2021 — nearly five years ago — raising questions about where the cycle stands and what happens next.
I haven't seen anyone talk about this, or the other points I am about to make. So it is time for me to write a new idea.

1- Why price action at this level is so important

Previous highs represent an important market structure for a lot of market participants. They view this level as significant for various reasons. You have in particular the investors that sold at the top (either in 2021 or in 2024 when it got revisited and the price consolidated there for months) or that wanted to buy now feel regret after missing out or want to break even. It is also important to mention the long term investors that view this level as one they want to defend, like everyone else they see the same chart.

With Bitcoin these levels are extremely important based on the simple fact that there are virtually no fundamentals driving the price. The major driver is how investors feel. They can rationalize all they want, they just can't help it, and I believe the price action shows this.
As you can see on the following chart, the few times the price tested a previous long term high it formed a strong bottom and it was the start of a bull market.

2- Are we still in wave A?

I am not convinced we are at the bottom of the bear market. I think it has just begun. Bitcoin does not just drop 50% and goes up. When it drops, it drops 80%.

First of all the bounce which would be wave B, is unimpressive, it is much smaller than every single Bitcoin B wave in the past. This bounce we saw was a .382 bounce, whereas the actual B waves in previous bear markets all were bigger than 50%.
There were .382 bounces in previous bear markets, and they were just part of wave A, or in other words, only the beginning.

And we did not see massive liquidations, and capitulation as we have in the past. Or at least not yet.

3- Volatility indicators have dropped

During the price crash of a few weeks ago, volatility indicators spiked and then dropped. This hints at a possible bottom. There is no certainty here, but usually when volatility returns to normal the price has bottomed. The bottom may be local and price might bounce into wave B, it could also be a stronger, longer term bottom.

4- Other investing, or gambling, avenues

Bitcoin has a lot of competition: In 2025 the price of gold has increased by 65%, and silver has gained 140%. Silver has gone up more than Bitcoin the last year it was in the green, which was 120% in 2024. And in 2025 Bitcoin has not even gone up while other, much less risky assets such as the S&P500 have been. There is also AI that some consider a better use of capital, attention, and electricity. All of this is extremely important. If Bitcoin on its best years cannot beat regular, safer, wildly accepted assets, there is absolutely no point into putting money into this coin. People that may be interested in crypto are going to look at stocks, at precious metals, and at their gambling apps.

Bitcoin no longer has the edge it had during most of its existence. In the short term interest rates and bond yields are down, but in the long term that are still higher than the 2009-2021 period. We know that when rates get higher, risk assets look less attractive. So we can expect less people to want to put money into this virtual currency.

5- What are investors doing?

The quantity of Bitcoin held by institutions has stopped going up and stagnated. There has been some selling but the overall total has flatlined. It shows some distribution, but it is not very convincing. The fear and greed index dropped into extreme fear, and overall investors worried. But I have not seen any signs of capitulation. No major inflows or outflows. All we see is cautious positioning. Definitely no aggressive accumulation.

This is anecdotal but the only "out of the ordinary" activity I noticed was the search terms "Will Bitcoin go to zero" in google trends. The last time this research got to a new high was in the first half of 2022, when the price of Bitcoin dropped by 80%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a major level both technically and psychologically. Volatility compression hints at a bounce soon. I do not believe we have seen any sign of a major bottom. Investor positioning appears cautious rather than euphoric. Other assets appear much more interesting, which leads to the question of whether or not Bitcoin will attract new investors in the long term?

#BTC #bitcoin #BTCMiningDifficultyIncrease #trending

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade near the $67K–$69K range, reflecting resilience in the face of broader market caution. This comes as recent exchange and on-chain data point to a mix of moderating selling pressure and ongoing large-holder activity.
Sell Pressure Slows, But Distribution Persists
Recent blockchain analytics show that the surge in BTC deposits to centralized exchanges — often a sign of selling pressure — has cooled from earlier peaks.
This suggests that intense panic selling may be easing.
However, the composition of those deposits tells an important story:
• The Exchange Whale Ratio — the share of BTC inflows made by the largest wallets — remains elevated.
• Large holders are still depositing significant amounts to exchanges, hinting at continued distribution by whales.
This dual signal — slowing overall inflows but high whale share — suggests retail/general selling is moderating, while big players remain active.
Statistical Medium-Term Signal: History Favors Higher BTC
Economist Timothy Peterson highlights a longer-term probability model based on historical monthly patterns:
• 50% of the past 24 months have been positive for Bitcoin.
• Based on this metric, there’s an ~88% chance BTC will be higher 10 months from now.
This does not promise immediate upside, but it suggests that periods of extended fear and multi-month declines have often preceded structural rebounds in the past.
Additionally, historical forward returns over 10-month horizons indicated average recovery levels well above current ranges.
Together, these point to a potential medium-term recovery window — even as short-term structure remains cautious.
Near-Term Reality Check
Despite these medium-term signals, some near-term risks persist:
• Whales remain active in exchange flows
• Liquidity rotation remains muted
• Stablecoin inflows have not shown strong expansion
• Resistance sits near key $70K levels
Lower buying power on exchanges suggests short-term upside may remain constrained until fresh capital enters.
Accumulation Continues in Background
On the accumulation side, long-term holders and recurring accumulation addresses have steadily increased BTC holdings.
This indicates that strong conviction holders are absorbing supply slowly, even as price wobbles near current levels.
This kind of supply slow-down often supports price stability in corrective phases.
Key Levels to Watch
Support:
• $65,000 — key psychological support
• $60,000 — deeper structural level
Resistance:
• $70,000+ — near-term horizontal resistance
• Levels above $75K could shift broader sentiment
Current price action — trading in a $65K–$70K range — suggests compression and decision zone behavior, not definitive breakout or breakdown.
What This Means Now
Bitcoin’s market structure is showing:
✔ Moderating sell pressure
✔ Whales still active
✔ Retail accumulation continuing
✔ Liquidity compressed
This mix reflects a transition phase — not full panic, not clear breakout. It’s compression before expansion, where on-chain direction signals will matter more than short-term price swings.
Final Take
BTC’s current stability near $67K–$69K reflects resilient demand at key levels, even as large holders continue distributing.
Short-term caution remains. Medium-term statistical history leans optimistic.
For now, Bitcoin is balanced between distribution pressure and structural support — a data-driven, decision area before the next major directional move.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading derivatives or cryptocurrencies.
#CryptoNews #bitcoin #CryptoMarketWatch #CryptoMarket
$BTC

I have researched Bitcoin for a long time and one thing that always stands out to me is its fixed supply. From the beginning, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin so that only 21 million coins will ever exist. It will not have unlimited printing like traditional money. This is the main reason many people compare Bitcoin to gold. It becomes scarce by design.

In my search, I found that as of August 2025, around 19.91 million bitcoins have already been mined. That means almost 95 percent of the total supply is already in circulation. New bitcoins are currently created as rewards for miners, and right now miners receive about 3.125 BTC roughly every 10 minutes. This reward keeps getting smaller because of something called the halving, which happens about every four years. Because of this system, the last bitcoin is expected to be mined around the year 2140.

I start to know about that many people wonder what will happen when no new bitcoins are created. The simple answer is that mining will not stop. It will have a different reward system. Today miners earn from two things, new bitcoins and transaction fees. After 2140, they will earn only from transaction fees paid by users who send Bitcoin.

This means transaction fees will become more important. If many people are using Bitcoin, miners will still have strong income from fees. If usage grows over time, they become financially motivated to keep securing the network. But if fees are too low, some miners might leave, which could reduce security. However, Bitcoin adjusts its mining difficulty automatically. If miners leave, mining becomes easier for the remaining ones, and blocks will still be produced roughly every 10 minutes.

Another important thing I discovered is that not all mined bitcoins are actually usable. Studies suggest that up to 20 percent of Bitcoin may be lost forever because people lost their private keys or forgot their wallets. That means the real available supply is even smaller than the official number. This makes Bitcoin even more scarce over time.

In simple words, when all bitcoins are mined, the system will not collapse. It will have no new coin creation, but it will continue running on transaction fees. The security of the network will depend on how much people use it and how valuable those fees become. Bitcoin was built to think far into the future. Even though 2140 feels very far away, the foundation for that moment is already written in its code today.

$BTC

#bitcoin #btc70k

Despite bearish pressure and weak US economic data, Bitcoin's recovering hashrate and new onchain security protocols raise the chance for a surge to $70,000.
Key takeaways:
A minor 4.3% Bitcoin price increase to $69,600 could trigger over $600 million in forced liquidations for bearish traders.Rising network hashrate and the BIP-360 quantum security proposal are helping to diminish long-term technical concerns.
$BTC $67,400 has remained confined within a relatively tight range of $65,900 to $70,500 over the past week. This stagnation has encouraged bearish traders, particularly as other major asset classes displayed resilience. However, even if Bitcoin requires months to reclaim the $90,000 level, excessive bearish confidence could trigger a wave of forced liquidations in futures positions, rapidly shifting momentum back to the bulls.

According to CoinGlass estimates, a price rally to $69,600 would force the liquidation of over $600 million in short $BTC futures. For context, when Bitcoin climbed to $70,560 from $60,200 on Feb. 6, short liquidations totaled $385 million. Currently, a mere 4.3% move upward from the $66,700 level could deliver an even more significant blow to those betting on further declines.
Bulls may also find a catalyst in weakening macroeconomic data. The US reported sluggish gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, with an annualized rate of 1.4% falling short of the 2.9% analysts expected, per Yahoo Finance. This slower economic activity negatively impacts corporate earnings outlooks, typically reducing investor appetite for stock market exposure.
Meanwhile, underlying US inflation rose more than anticipated in December, dampening hopes for near-term interest rate cuts. The US personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% month on month. As the S&P 500 loses bullish steam, investors may be forced out of their comfort zones to seek higher returns in onchain markets.

Escalating Middle East tensions may prompt investors to seek alternative hedges, particularly after gold prices rallied 25% in just three months. Gold’s market capitalization has climbed to a staggering $35.2 trillion, nearly eight times larger than Nvidia (NVDA US), which sits at $4.6 trillion. 
As Bitcoin trades about 47% below its all-time high, the risk-reward profile for the cryptocurrency may become increasingly attractive to macro traders. For now, Bitcoin bears retain control, as evidenced by the lack of demand for long positions in the futures market.

The $BTC perpetual futures funding rate has failed to stay above the 6% neutral threshold over the last two weeks. More telling is the recent stretch of negative funding rate, suggesting that bears are committed to their positions even as Bitcoin retests the $66,000 support level. Regaining conviction remains a hurdle for the bulls, who witnessed $1.6 billion in liquidations during the three-day crash that started on Feb. 6.
Recovering hashrate and BIP-360 progress strengthen Bitcoin network security
While some of Bitcoin’s recent weakness was attributed to network security concerns, those risks are now dissipating.

The seven-day average hashrate has recovered to 1,100 exahashes per second, matching levels from late January. Earlier fears that miners were abandoning the network to pivot toward the artificial intelligence sector have proven premature, as the industry shows remarkable resilience.
Furthermore, the introduction of BIP-360 has addressed much of the uncertainty surrounding quantum computing threats. This proposal outlines a framework for post-quantum protection through a backwards-compatible soft fork. By removing the vulnerable key-path spend found in Taproot, the proposal hides public keys onchain until the moment of spending. 
This technological roadmap provides a clear path for bulls to regain the narrative, potentially forcing a short squeeze that could propel Bitcoin back above $70,000.
#BTC #bitcoin #bearishmomentum #TrendingTopic