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Amid the recent downturn, #Cardano now sits at a critical juncture similar to its 2023 bottom, with two clear price paths before it.
Each path leads to two different price directions, and its near-term reaction would determine which one it would take. One is headed toward steeper dips, and the other is a recovery path to higher prices.
Key Points
Amid the recent downturn, #Cardano now sits at a critical juncture similar to its 2023 bottom, with two clear price paths set before it.For context, the 11th-largest cryptocurrency by market cap pumped by over 500% from its June 2023 lows of $0.220 to its cycle top of $1.32 in December 2024.After relinquishing all those gains, Cardano now sits at a level that aligns with the $0.27-$0.35 price range, with crucial support at $0.25. How ADA reacts will determine its next course of action.If it holds this zone between $0.27 and $0.35 through mid-2026, it stands a chance of rebounding to between $0.40 and $0.50.If it doesn’t hold this price range, Cardano could drop further to below $0.20 by late 2026, representing an over 27% correction.On-chain data from Coinglass shows that Cardano has seen good spot buying activity in the past few days.
Cardano at a Crossroads It Hasn’t Seen for Years
For context, the 11th-largest cryptocurrency by market cap pumped by over 500% from its June 2023 lows of $0.220 to its cycle top of $1.32 in December 2024. The explosive move saw it rally to a distribution zone marked red in an accompanying chart before dumping as hard as it pumped.

Currently, ADA has given up all its gains from this run, dropping to $0.2206 on February 6 before rebounding slightly to $0.274. It now sits around the same level as 2023, an area that is crucial for its next price direction.
Notably, this level aligns with the $0.27-$0.35 price range, with crucial support at $0.25. How Cardano handles this will determine whether it repeats its 2023 price action or drops to lows not seen in over five years.
What Could Happen from Here
From a bullish perspective, Cardano could rebound from here if it does what it did in the previous cycle lows. Specifically, if it holds this zone between $0.27 and $0.35 through mid-2026, it stands a chance of rebounding to higher prices. 
While nothing explosive is on the horizon at the moment, given the current price momentum, a sustainable trend above this support level could pave the way for reclaiming the $0.40-$0.50 resistance range. This would represent a 46% to 82% growth from the current market price of $0.274.
However, if it doesn’t hold this price range, it could signal a price capitulation. Cardano could drop further to below $0.20 by late 2026, representing an over 27% correction. ADA last saw such a low in January 2021, over four years ago.
What On-Chain Data Suggests for Cardano
On-chain data from Coinglass shows that Cardano has seen good spot buying activity in the past few days. The spot flows show higher outflows than inflows on higher timeframes, signaling accumulation over further distribution.
In the past 24 hours, exchanges have seen inflows of $16.67 million in ADA and outflows of $17.58 million, as users withdraw their tokens, likely to hold. This trend becomes more pronounced in the 7- and 10-day timeframes, with wallets withdrawing $152.66 million and $226.61 million, compared with inflows of $147 million and $220 million, respectively.

If this trend continues, ADA could gain the needed buying pressure to push higher from current support levels.
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#Cardano (ADA) appears to be nearing a major breakout phase that could drive its price up by as much as 3,114% from current levels.
As the broader crypto market faces another correction this week, Cardano’s price also retraced, falling from its weekend high of $0.30 to around $0.28.
Despite this pullback, analysts argue that the 11th-largest cryptocurrency by market cap may be building momentum for a significant move, with historical precedent suggesting a sharp upside breakout.
Key Points
Cardano may be approaching a major breakout that could push the price toward $9.Analysts suggest ADA could reach the upper end of this target range later this year if momentum accelerates.ADA’s current price action closely mirrors its historical fractal, with ADA now consolidating near $0.28 after a deep retracement.Skeptics argue that price compression alone cannot sustain a major rally without broader capital rotation into altcoins.
ADA Mirroring 2021 Price Action
Crypto analytics platform Bitcoinsensus shared this outlook on X, citing long-term technical formation dating back to early 2020.
According to the platform, Cardano’s long-term chart reflects a familiar cyclical structure. In the previous cycle, ADA traded below $0.10 during an extended accumulation phase before staging an explosive breakout that pushed the price to $3.10 in September 2021.
After the rally, Cardano entered a multi-year correction that began in late 2021 and continues to date. In June 2023, the price fell to around $0.23, marking a 92.5% decline from its all-time high.
Despite the extended downturn, ADA recorded brief price spikes. For instance, in March 2025, it surged to $1.13 before entering another prolonged decline that has since pushed the token back into consolidation near $0.28. Therefore, Bitcoinsensus’s analysis suggests that ADA’s current price structure mirrors its previous cycle and could set the stage for another significant rally.
Is a Surge to $3-$9 Imminent?
Historically, prolonged consolidation phases often precede strong upside expansions, as selling pressure weakens and long-term accumulation strengthens.
Based on this, Bitcoinsensus projects that the next expansion phase could lift ADA to $3 and potentially above $9. This implies gains ranging from 971% to 3,114% from current levels. Interestingly, the accompanying chart suggests that ADA could reach the target peak later this year or in 2027.

However, skeptics argue that Bitcoinsensus’ projected $3–$9 targets would require Cardano’s market cap to expand to between $100 billion and $300 billion. Therefore, they stress that such explosive gains demand significant liquidity inflows, not merely price compression near range lows. In their view, market structure alone cannot fuel a sustained rally.
Potential Catalysts for the Rally
Meanwhile, the projected timeline coincides with rising expectations of a broader market upswing, driven by the anticipated enactment of the Clarity Act. Industry leaders such as Brad Garlinghouse expect the legislation to become law by the end of April, potentially boosting regulatory clarity and investor confidence.
In addition, ecosystem developments could reinforce bullish momentum. These include the upcoming mainnet launch of Midnight and the rollout of DeFi products linked to Bitcoin and XRP, both aimed at attracting users from those networks and deepening cross-chain activity.
Nonetheless, crypto markets remain highly volatile, and projections do not guarantee outcomes.
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