$XAU Price surge: Gold breaks $5,000 milestone amid dollar weakness and inflation concerns
Technicals: RSI near neutral at 46-52, MACD shows mixed signals, key support at $4,800-$4,900
Catalysts: Fed rate cut expectations, central bank buying, geopolitical tensions boost safe-haven demand
Volume & momentum: Strong ETF inflows, 6% rebound after January crash, consolidation near $5,000
Market Status
Spot gold trades near $5,000, rebounding from a January 30 crash of -12.75% with a strong +6% recovery on February 3
Recent price action shows consolidation around $4,995–$5,005, supported by sustained institutional and retail demand
Gold’s 2025 performance delivered a remarkable +65% gain, followed by a +30% surge in January 2026 before correction
The 50-day SMA at $4,994.24 and 200-day SMA at $4,989.74 provide near-term technical support beneath the $5,000 level
Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy
Immediate resistance is seen at $5,010.59 (20-day SMA), with stronger barriers at $5,100 and $5,200; a breakout could target $5,400–$5,500
Key support lies in the $4,970–$4,800 range, with the 50 EMA at $4,620 as a major structural floor if downside pressure intensifies
RSI fluctuates between 46 and 52, indicating neutral momentum without overbought or oversold extremes, allowing room for further upside
MACD shows mixed signals—rising in negative territory as of February 19, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening but not yet reversed
Traders should monitor volume on moves above $5,010; sustained closes above this level with expanding volume may confirm bullish continuation
Core Driving Factors
US dollar weakness is the primary driver, with DXY falling to multi-week lows due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026
Cooling inflation data (CPI at 2.4% YoY) and weak retail sales have increased market bets on accommodative monetary policy
Central banks, especially in China and emerging markets, continue aggressive gold purchases to diversify reserves away from the dollar
Geopolitical tensions and concerns over US fiscal deficits are reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against currency debasement and systemic risk
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