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The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (Clarity Act) is currently in a critical negotiation phase in the U.S. Senate, with the most likely passage window targeted for spring 2026. While the bill passed the House of Representatives in July 2025, it has faced delays in the Senate Banking Committee throughout early 2026 due to disputes over stablecoin regulations. 

Projected Timelines for 2026
Earliest Plausible Window (Spring 2026): Senator Bernie Moreno and Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse have both publicly predicted the bill could pass by April 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also urged Congress to finalize the legislation this spring to avoid the political complications of the upcoming midterm elections.
Most Probable Window (Mid to Late 2026): Many analysts suggest a more realistic timeline extends into mid or late 2026 as lawmakers reconcile different versions from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees.
Risk of Further Delay: Citi analysts warned in late January that there is a growing possibility the bill could be pushed beyond 2026 if partisan gridlock over decentralized finance (DeFi) and financial surveillance persists. 

Current Status & Roadblocks (as of February 2026)
The "Yield War": A major impasse exists between the banking lobby and crypto firms like Coinbase. Banks are pushing for a total ban on stablecoin "rewards" (interest-like payments), arguing they threaten traditional deposits, while the crypto industry sees this as anti-competitive.
Senate Deadlock: The Senate Banking Committee indefinitely postponed a scheduled markup on January 14, 2026, following industry pushback. No new date for a committee vote has been confirmed as of February 19, 2026.
White House Mediation: The White House has reportedly set a February 28, 2026, deadline for industry leaders and lawmakers to reach a compromise on the disputed stablecoin provisions.
Market Sentiment: Polymarket currently shows approximately a 56% to 70% probability of the Act being signed into law by the end of 2026, down from earlier peaks of 90% in January. 

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