bearmarket

#Bitcoin is currently in Stage 4 out of 6 of the current bear market.
These six stages are my own framework, developed through direct observation of every major Bitcoin bull and bear market so far.
The structure repeats because the underlying drivers repeat: liquidity mechanics, leverage positioning, and predictable human behavior under stress and current panic.

Stage 1: Euphoric market and insane buying appetite. This is what happened between 115k and 125k. The first stage mainly ends with extended sideways movement at euphoric levels, often biased in one direction, or with sudden spikes to the upside after a long consolidation despite extreme bullish sentiment. On the surface, everything looks strong, but in reality the market is overloaded and overleveraged, with late entrants who believe risk has disappeared. Insane price predictions happen here, and people reach the highest level of greed.

Stage 2: Breakdown of a highly important psychological level. This stage begins once we drop below an important psychological mark, which in this cycle was 100k. The psychological level is extremely important because its loss stresses short-term investors and flushes out leverage traders, giving them the first warning signs that their euphoric dream from Stage 1 is over. The speed of the second move is noticeable and intentional. It happens very quickly and does not allow investors to rethink, recalculate, or properly manage their positions. The market acts before they can react. It front-runs them, and many lose control here. The best example was the fast crash on the 10th of October, which caused the largest liquidation event in crypto history. It happened within a few hours.

Stage 3: The fastest and most brutal move + bear market confirmation. After Stage 2, the market needs to move even faster. Market makers cannot allow retail to realize what is happening; the speed needs to be maintained, so an even more brutal downside move follows. Stage 3 is the fastest of all phases and fully confirms the bear market with an extreme and rapid downside move, typically exceeding a 50% drawdown from the all-time high, which has been the case. In this scenario, investors are in deep depression and strong panic. They had no time to recalculate, hedge correctly, or reduce leverage. They are sitting on losses they never prepared for. I consider Stage 3 the most brutal phase of a bear market. It happens very fast and removes reaction time. The move from 97k in January to 60k in February, a crash of 50% within only 30 days, reflects that brutality. Many have not realized that nearly 50% of BTC’s market cap was wiped out within 30 days. The most violent mechanical repricing is likely behind us, and we have now entered Stage 4, which brings retail into psychological torture.

Stage 4: Dehydration, depression, and perfect liquidity creation. This is where we are now. Stage 4 is not very violent or volatile, but it is extremely exhausting. The price moves sideways for a long period, often several months, within its own defined region. This is why I defined the current sideways structure and drew the “box,” showing clear upside and downside boundaries. You could also describe this as a weak-hands selling zone. A sideways move allows market makers to generate liquidity on both the upside and downside by trapping breakout traders and breakdown sellers. Sideways does not mean nothing is happening in the market, that is what retail sees when markets move sideways for a long time, but the message is much bigger. It means the market is preparing to exhaust participants fully while creating a large cluster of liquidity below the current zone, an area defined as the future capitulation region. This phase creates dehydration, frustration, regret, and anxiety. Retail traders start saying, “Bitcoin will drop another 30–40%; it’s better to sell here.” Many think the same way. Most short-term holder capitulation happens in Stage 4. Retail traders exit here because they missed selling in Stage 1, failed to sell in Stage 2, and had no time to react in Stage 3. Now they sell at a loss, as on-chain data confirms. Based on the data I see, the breakdown below the box that will bring us into Stage 5 is more likely to happen in a few months, not in the coming weeks. For the short term, I have placed buy orders between 57–60k within the current sideways structure and expect a bounce in the short to mid term. This does not change my broader outlook of lower targets.

Stage 5: Total fear, drama, and capitulation. This is the true capitulation phase. It is not always the fastest move, but it is the most emotional one. Fear turns into panic, and panic turns into forced selling, even among experienced long-term holders. This stage is often connected with the collapse of a large player, an exchange failure, or a black swan event. It is remarkable to see panic selling after an asset is already down 50–70% from its all-time high, yet this phenomenon repeats every cycle. Originally, I projected the bottom between 50–60k when BTC was trading at 120k. In January, I adjusted this to 40–50k. With current macro data and visible stress in global markets, including the REPO and liquidity markets, I now consider 35–45k as the ultimate bottom scenario. That implies another significant downside from current levels, where the final capitulation is likely to play out.

Stage 6: Stabilization and structural reversal. This final stage is a mix of total fear, volatility, and continued sideways movement. Selling pressure gradually disappears, and the market begins building the foundation for the next bullish cycle. Structurally, market makers prepare for recovery. This is the moment when large players begin accumulating heavily during capitulation, while retail investors scream for lower and lower prices, calling for extreme targets such as 10k or below. Retail becomes greedy again for lower prices and ultimately misses the bottom, a perfect repeat of every cycle in which retail investors buy high and sell low.

Right now, we are in Stage 4. The worst in terms of high-speed mechanical downside is likely behind us, but the real psychological damage phase has just begun. Regret increases. People rethink their decisions. They calculate exit plans that come too late. This is the reason why we have seen the largest short-term holder capitulation in the last few days. The key lesson remains simple: never let the market trade you; you trade the market. When price moves fast, reaction time disappears. When price moves slowly, discipline disappears. Understanding these stages allows you to operate structurally rather than emotionally. My heavy accumulation will begin between Stage 5 and Stage 6, not before. This pattern has repeated across every Bitcoin cycle so far. Human behavior is an architecture repeating under different market conditions, but the architecture itself always remains the same.

THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE AND EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY
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#liquidity

@Ahmad_khan09

As of February 19, 2026, market sentiment has reached "extreme fear" levels not seen since 2022, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunging to a record low of 5 out of 100. This collapse in confidence has been accompanied by a surge in global Google search interest for terms like "crypto capitulation" and bearish narratives as Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $70,000 mark. While generic searches for "crypto" remain at yearly lows, targeted searches related to market crashes peaked in early February following a rapid drop from $81,500 to roughly $60,000

Current Market Dynamics
Price Correction: Bitcoin is currently trading near $66,921, representing a 47% decline from its all-time high of approximately $126,000 set in October 2025.
Institutional Outflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a massive exodus, with $12 billion withdrawn since November 2025, including $3 billion in January 2026 alone.
Sentiment Extremes: Sentiment analysis for February 2026 indicates a dominance of 85% negative sentiment among retail investors, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and high interest rates.
Binance
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Key Drivers of the Downturn
Macroeconomic Pressure: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in late January has reinforced expectations of strict monetary policy, strengthening the US Dollar Index (DXY) above 97.5, which traditionally pressures risk assets like BTC.
Liquidity Crisis: A massive drain of liquidity as the US Treasury refills its Treasury General Account (TGA) to near $922 billion has significantly reduced speculative capital in the markets.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing transatlantic tensions and a partial US government shutdown earlier in the year have pushed investors toward defensive positions.
Whale Activity: High-profile liquidations, including reports of Bhutan selling off its Bitcoin reserves, have added significant sell-side pressure.
Contrarian Outlook
Despite the "extreme fear," some analysts and firms like Grayscale and JPMorgan suggest this may be a "capitulation" phase necessary to eliminate speculative excess. Some Wall Street forecasts still project Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by the end of 2026 if regulatory clarity and monetary easing resume later in the year
$BTC

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