commodities

Guys, let me explain the recent post Iran fired missiles in the Strait of Hormuz during live drills and even halted part of the strait while nuclear talks were happening...👇
Key Points:
Iran-related risks near the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices volatile, with geopolitical headlines driving short-term direction rather than demand fundamentals.WTI crude remains above the 200-day SMA with consolidation between $62 and $65, while a breakout above resistance could target the $69–$70 zone.Natural gas prices have collapsed toward the $3 support zone after the winter spike, but technical structure suggests a potential rebound from the $2.50–$3 range.
Brent oil prices dipped slightly in Asian trading as investors hedged against an Iranian naval drill near the Strait of Hormuz that could cause a supply disruption. The market remained cautious in anticipation of U.S.-Iran talks on the nuclear issue. Traders are more focused on geopolitical headlines than pure demand trends. Brent oil dipped a bit after Monday’s advance, while WTI crude oil held firm near $63.50. Thin liquidity due to Lunar New Year holidays in major Asian markets also limited directional moves.
Strait of Hormuz is important chokepoint for exports of crude oil by Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. Any military action on this route evokes concerns of shipping problems and justifies a geopolitical risk premium in oil. Nevertheless, there was no immediate supply shock that would have led to sharp rally.
Oil prices are likely to be volatile in near term as sentiment is driven by diplomatic signals. Positive progress in talks could rapidly eliminate risk premium and send prices back to $60. On the other hand, any threat to shipments through Strait of Hormuz could cause a sudden spike. OPEC+ may also react to sustained prices in $65-$70 with an output increase which will cap upside momentum and keep oil trading in a choppy range.
Meanwhile the story of Natural gas is different as the price dropped to the critical level of $3 following the collapse of winter risk premiums. The previous spike above $7.00 diminished as panic buying was wiped out by expectations of warmer weather. This breakdown is indication of forced liquidation and poor demand. Although oil is more susceptible to geopolitical tensions, gas markets are more sensitive to weather and storage effects.
Oil Technical Analysis
WTI Oil Daily Descending Trend Line
The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows bullish price action above $55 in the short term. However, the consolidation between $62 and $65 is increasing uncertainty. Despite this uncertainty, the price remains above the 200-day SMA, and the RSI is consolidating above the mid-level, which increases the possibility of another push higher toward $69. The $69-$70 level remains a strong key resistance in WTI crude. This resistance is indicated by the descending trend line, which is highlighted by the red dotted line on the chart below.
WTI Oil 4 Hour Consolidation
The 4-hour chart also shows that the price is consolidating below $65.50 and looking for the next direction. As long as the price remains above $62, the possibility of an upside breakout remains likely. However, a break below $62 will indicate further downside toward $58. The RSI on the 4-hour chart is consolidating below the midline, which indicates further downside in the short term.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Daily Key Support Zone
The daily chart for natural gas shows strong spike during the winter season at around $7.40. Then, prices dropped by more than 50% to $3. Now the price is again rebounding from this support and looking for the next direction. The orange shaded area on daily chart highlights the key support zone, which is seen by the neckline of the cup and handle pattern. Thus, the support region between $2.50 and $3 remains the key zone, which may introduce another rebound to higher levels in natural gas.
Natural Gas 4 Hour Key Support Zone
This support zone is also evident on the 4-hour chart. The chart shows short-term support between $2.60 and $2.90. Historically, natural gas prices have produced a rebound when they come around this level. Moreover, the RSI has remained below the midline over the past 15 days, which increases the possibility of a rebound from current levels in natural gas.
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For a brief moment in early 2026, silver stopped acting like a commodity and started trading like a social-media trade.
The move wasn’t driven by physical shortages or long-term demand. It was driven by speed — retail flow, algorithmic momentum, and leverage feeding on itself. What looked like a “new era” for silver was really a liquidity rush wearing a fundamentals costume.
When rates shifted and the dollar firmed up, the illusion cracked.
No war headlines. No supply shock.
Just positioning that suddenly couldn’t breathe.
The selloff that followed wasn’t a healthy pullback — it was a forced unwind.
Stops cascaded. Algos flipped from buyers to sellers in seconds. Liquidity thinned out at the worst possible moment. In a few hours, a vertical rally turned into a vertical drop. That’s what leveraged momentum looks like when it runs out of room.
Gold felt the same macro pressure — and that’s where the divergence showed up.
While silver air-pocketed, gold found bids quickly.
Not from short-term traders, but from institutions that view sharp drawdowns as inventory, not danger. This is the difference between momentum money and structural money. One chases moves. The other absorbs volatility.
Silver’s explosive run into 2026 had fuel, but not a foundation.
Leverage can push price far beyond fair value.
It cannot hold it there when sentiment flips.
The green-tech story for silver still matters — solar panels, electronics, and AI hardware all need the metal. But the market learned something uncomfortable: demand narratives don’t protect price when positioning is crowded and liquidity dries up. Structural demand helps over years. Positioning decides what happens in days.
Current update
Flows are still choosing gold on pullbacks. Silver remains choppy, and rallies are getting sold into faster than dips are being defended. The market is voting with its capital — safety first, speculation later.
This doesn’t mean silver is “finished.”
It means the risk premium just got repriced.
When volatility hits, capital doesn’t hide in the loudest trade.
It hides in the deepest market.
London Bullion Market Association liquidity and institutional access continue to give China-backed central bank buying and sovereign flows a home in London vault networks, while silver’s thinner market structure struggles to absorb shock without violent swings.
Gold isn’t just another metal.
It’s where fear parks itself when conditions turn hostile.
Silver will always be the high-beta trade in a metals bull run.
Gold will always be the balance sheet.