icrypto

Bitcoin remains trapped below its $79,000 True Market Mean level, with onchain models now framing a broad $79,000 to $54,900 structural range, Glassnode said.
Options markets show panic hedging fading, but analysts say liquidity conditions, ETF outflows, and macro uncertainty continue to cap conviction.
Bitcoin is still trading below a key onchain valuation benchmark heading into late February, as analysts say recent price action has reset the market’s structural framework, reflecting strained liquidity and the absence of sustained institutional demand.
Glassnode noted in its latest weekly report that bitcoin has decisively broken beneath the “True Market Mean” — a model tracking the aggregate cost basis of active supply. That level, currently around $79,000, has historically acted as a dividing line between expansionary and compression phases, it said.
With the breakdown confirmed, the firm sees the Realized Price near $54,900 — the average acquisition cost of all circulating coins — as the lower structural boundary. In previous cycles, the corridor between those two anchors has framed prolonged consolidation.
Bitcoin was trading around $67,700 at publication time, hovering within a broad $60,000 to $70,000 band that has defined recent price action, according to The Block’s price page.
Current price levels mark a further deterioration from earlier February conditions, when analysts noted bitcoin was “staying defensive” below $70,000 amid shallow demand. Since then, ETF flows have turned persistently negative, and spot sell pressure has intensified, reinforcing the lack of a structural bid beneath the market.
Glassnode’s data shows U.S. spot ETF net flows have rotated back into sustained outflows, removing what previously served as a steady source of marginal demand. Spot cumulative volume delta across major exchanges also flipped negative, signaling active sell-side aggression rather than passive liquidity gaps, the firm said.
While onchain accumulation metrics improved from outright distribution, appetite from large holders remains fragile, according to the Glassnode analysts. The Accumulation Trend Score has moved toward a neutral reading around 0.4, indicating that aggressive selling has eased, yet large-entity conviction has not returned in force. Liquidity conditions have stayed compressed, with realized profit-to-loss ratios stuck in a narrow band historically associated with stressed regimes, they said.
Meanwhile, derivatives positioning suggests the panic phase has cooled but not transitioned into renewed optimism. Implied volatility has retreated sharply from recent highs, and 25-delta skew — a gauge of downside hedging demand — has compressed from extreme levels. The data suggests traders are unwinding crash protection, but they are not rebuilding upside exposure in size, Glassnode said.
Macro conditions continue to shape the backdrop as well. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting carried a hawkish tone, emphasizing patience on rate cuts and keeping the possibility of further tightening in play if inflation persists.
Bitcoin is navigating an adjustment phase amid macroeconomic caution,” said Antonio Di Giacomo, senior market analyst at XS.com, pointing to resistance near $70,000 and intermediate support around $64,000 to $65,000. He added that the lack of clarity around monetary easing is weighing on speculative assets.
Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, said that liquidity — rather than technical levels alone — will determine when a durable bottom forms. He highlighted onchain spot volume data showing continued sell-side pressure and suggested deeper capitulation toward the $55,000 to $58,000 region remains possible unless ETF inflows return or the dollar weakens materially.
The tone echoes a recent K33 report, which said bitcoin is approaching “late bear market territory,” with regime signals resembling those seen near the 2022 bottom. Yet analysts caution that structural recovery typically requires a clear improvement in liquidity, not just positioning resets.
Despite the market gloom, there are some early stabilization signals. Kraken’s global economist Thomas Perfumo noted that implied volatility has diverged below realized volatility — a pattern that has preceded recovery phases in prior corrections. Coin Days Destroyed, a proxy for long-term holder activity, has also stabilized, suggesting reduced supply pressure from older coins, Perfumo said.
Still, multiple analysts' opinions reviewed by The Block agree that conviction remains muted. ETF flows are not cushioning downside, large entities are not accumulating aggressively, and macro conditions have yet to pivot decisively.
#YapayzekaAI
#UnicornChannel
#icrypto
#ONDO：
#pepe⚡

La semana pasada fue un baño de sangre. Tus emociones fueron un campo de batalla. Pero el Gato Zen sabe que el verdadero trading no sucede en las gráficas, sino en tu mente. Inspirado en "Trading in the Zone" de Mark Douglas, hoy analizaremos cómo el "sentimiento" no es más que tu incapacidad de operar en "La Zona" después de una sacudida.

1. El Lunes: Un Vasto Océano de Posibilidades (y Miedo) 🌊
Después de una semana roja, el rebote del lunes te enfrenta a dos demonios:
"Debería haber vendido": El lamento del "miedo a perder más" (Fear of Loss), que te paralizó la semana pasada."Me estoy perdiendo el rebote": El rugido del "miedo a quedarse fuera" (FOMO), que te empuja a comprar ciegamente hoy.
Douglas diría: El mercado no te debe nada. Cada tick es una nueva oportunidad. Si estás operando desde el arrepentimiento del pasado o la anticipación del futuro, no estás en La Zona. Estás en tu cabeza.
2. Caso de Estudio 1: SUI — La Resiliencia Silenciosa 🌿
SUI es un gran ejemplo. Después de caer fuerte la semana pasada, mostró resiliencia y un rebote sólido.
El Trader Emocional: "¡SUI subió 10%! ¡Debí haber comprado el fondo! Ahora ya es tarde, seguro que se cae de nuevo."El Trader en La Zona: Entiende que SUI, como cualquier activo, tiene la probabilidad de subir o bajar. Si su plan de trading tenía una zona de acumulación que se activó la semana pasada, ejecutó sin miedo. Si no, espera la próxima configuración con paciencia, sin juicio. Cada operación es independiente.
3. Caso de Estudio 2: XLM (Stellar) — La Lección de la Paciencia ⭐
XLM a menudo es el "rezagado". Después de la carnicería, se movió con menos agresividad que otros, generando impaciencia.
El Trader Emocional: "¡XLM no se mueve! Esto es un proyecto muerto. Debo vender y meterme en lo que está subiendo."El Trader en La Zona: Comprende que XLM simplemente no ha activado su patrón de alta probabilidad para un movimiento ascendente todavía. No hay error en mantener si está dentro de tu plan a largo plazo, ni hay error en no comprar si no cumple tus criterios. La falta de acción no es un "error" del mercado, es solo la manifestación de sus probabilidades actuales. Tu objetivo es aprovechar las oportunidades, no crearlas con tu ansiedad.

4. Tu Tarea Zen: Opera sin Juicio 🧘‍♂️
El mercado no es personal. No te está castigando. Simplemente está siendo.
Elimina la culpa: No te culpes por las pérdidas pasadas. Acéptalas como parte del juego de probabilidades.Despega las expectativas: No esperes que el mercado "te dé" algo. Sigue tu plan y acepta el resultado.Concéntrate en el "Ahora": Cada vela, cada tick, es una nueva oportunidad con su propia probabilidad. Estate presente.
Solo cuando operas sin emociones, sin miedo a perder o a perderte el movimiento, sin juicio de ti mismo o del mercado, es cuando entras en "La Zona".

#Write2Earn #BTC #SUI🔥 #XLM #icrypto

$SUI
$XLM
$BTC

Some key events you shouldn't miss in the past week 'cause it indicates some hint for this week as well ⬇️
$BTC - Weekly candle closed at $68,500 (+0.82%), slightly affected by Mt.Gox's action and traditional stock market movements.
$ETH - The Ethereum ETF had over $1B in first-day trading volume. However, the "sell the news" effect brought negative impacts on $LDO, $SSV, and $PENDLE.
📌 Solana Ecosystem
$SOL - Solana appears to be the next ETF target, but its potential may be limited (Bloomberg). Also, It has surpassed $BNB to become the 4th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, only 9% away from the previous high.
$JTO - The TVL in Jito has exceeded $2B. The Jito Foundation revealed plans for Jito Restaking.
$MUMU - Leading the #meme trend on Solana after a Whale swap of $WIF for MUMU.
📌 Meme
$DMAGA - The price of this token dropped 75% in 1 hour after Elon Musk changed his X (formerly Twitter) account avatar
$WHY - The Meme Elephant token surged after the news that BNB Chain will hold the second BNB Incubation Alliance during the Bitcoin2024 Conference.
$TRUMP $MAGA - Fell down due to Donald Trump's speech at #Bitcoin_Coneference_2024
📌 AI
$WLD - SearchGPT, an AI-powered search engine prototype, has been released.
📌 GameFi
$PIRATE - Pirate Nation teased plans to bring their v1 project online on multiple chains.
📌 DeFi
$DYDX - The V3 platform of dYdX was hacked.
$ENA - BlackRock's BUIDL Fund has bid for Ethena's $45 million reserve fund allocation.
📌 Web3, Staking, Metaverse
$MOCA - Cooperation with the $TON Blockchain and $LRDS Block Lords.
$MAX - The next OKX Jumpstart project is Matr1x, a Web3 entertainment platform.
$ALT - The AltLayer project has adjusted the $ALT vesting schedule, suspending the 6-month vesting plan.
It seems like good news come to the #Solana chain again, the strong growth of SOL also brings #memecoins back. ✔️
———
However, we should take a look at what tokens have been accumulated over the past week by Smart Money:
1. $TAO - $1.8M
2. $ENS - $651.2K
3. $AAVE - $575.5K
4. $ETHx - $437.7K
5. $TURBO - $328.1K
6. $RNDR - $248.5K
7. $RLB - $241.9K
8. $BAR - $220.6K
9. $1CAT - $138.0K
10. $PEPE - $120.8K
The strongest and most outstanding accumulation of Smart Money goes to $TAO - #AI token, other we see $RENDER. It looks like #AI tokens is in Accumulation Zone of Smart Money. The heat of #Meme could go high first, but we better preparing for the narratives after.
How about you, what narratives do you think will happens this week? 😎 Check real-time trading data at iCrypto.ai

#DataFi #icrypto