tarrifs

After 1 year…
Countries finally adjust.
Deals start forming.
Markets price it in.
Then…
Supreme Court says it was ILLEGAL.
Now the US could owe
$150,000,000,000+ in refunds.
BUT INSTEAD…
Press release drops.
Tariffs stay.
And an ADDITIONAL 10% gets announced.
Everyone knows what happens next… 👀
$BTC #tarrifs

❌🇺🇸 Верховный суд США признал незаконными торговые пошлины Дональда Трампа!

➤ Суд постановил, что Дональд Трамп превысил свои полномочия, сославшись на закон о чрезвычайных мерах для введения глобальных пошлин.

➤ Речь идет как о «взаимных», так и о целевых импортных пошлинах.

➤ Администрация президента США обосновывала часть тарифов борьбой с трафиком фентанила.

➤ Решение фактически позволяет требовать возврата более $150b уже собранных пошлин — это серьезный риск для бюджета США.

➤ В судах остаются сотни исков с требованиями вернуть уплаченные тарифы.

➤ Процесс возврата, скорее всего, будет хаотичным.

➤ Вопрос о том, кто именно получит компенсацию, Верховный суд пока не рассматривал.
Прогноз реакции рынка на решение Верховного суда США по пошлинам Трампа от JPMorgan:

▫️Вероятность 64%: Пошлины отменены и немедленно заменены на аналогичные → S&P 500 сначала вырастет на 0,75-1%, но затем откатится до +0,1-0,2%.
▫️Вероятность 26%: Пошлины оставлены в силе → S&P 500 снизится на -0,3-0,5%.
▫️Вероятность 9%: Пошлины отменят после промежуточных выборов в ноябре → S&P 500 вырастет на +1,25-1,5%, Russell 2000 покажет лучшие результаты.
▫️Вероятность 1%: Пошлины отменены без замены → S&P 500 вырастет на +1,5-2%, Russell 2000 покажет лучшие результаты.
К январю США собрали $124b в виде таможенных пошлин. Даже в случае отмены эффективные ставки могут остаться на уровне 2025 года, что ограничит рост рынка. Решение Верховного Суда ожидается сегодня.

$BTC $USDC #

The U.S. Increases Tariffs and Expands Trade Restrictions
The U.S. government continues to escalate the trade conflict with China, raising tariffs on Chinese imports and extending restrictions to other partners, including the European Union, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea.
📌 What’s happening?
On February 1, the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, covering a wide range of products from electronics to textiles.On March 4, tariffs were doubled to 20%, further increasing pressure on China’s economy.Washington accuses China of unfair trade practices, which Donald Trump claims have harmed the U.S. for decades.
However, China did not stand idle and quickly retaliated.
China’s Response: Tariffs, Regulations, and Export Bans
Beijing reacted swiftly by imposing its own tariffs and restrictions on key resources.
📌 China’s retaliation in numbers:
On February 10, China imposed a 15% tariff on coal and LNG and a 10% tariff on oil and agricultural machinery.On March 10, China targeted the U.S. agricultural sector by imposing tariffs on chicken, wheat, and soybeans, dealing a direct blow to American farmers, a crucial voter base for Donald Trump.China threatened to limit the export of rare earth minerals, vital materials for electronics, electric vehicles, and military technology—the U.S. imports 80% of these minerals from China.
China’s strategy is clear—to hit key U.S. industries that are most vulnerable to trade restrictions.
The Trade Conflict Expands Globally
However, the U.S. didn’t stop with China—Trump’s administration also announced that tariffs would affect allies like the EU, Canada, and Mexico.
📌 Washington’s main arguments:
Trade partners must follow “fair” practices – The U.S. claims that the global trade system is harming the American economy.National security concerns – Trump argues that dependency on foreign metals poses a risk, particularly since China is the world’s largest steel producer.On March 12, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on all Chinese steel imports and raised aluminum tariffs to 25%.
On Tuesday, Trump announced that further escalation is on the table, which could mean either higher tariffs or an expansion to new sectors.
China Prepares for a Tough Battle
Beijing refuses to back down and is seeking new ways to counter the U.S. measures.
📌 China’s countermeasures:
Increased tariffs on U.S. technology and pharmaceuticals, two industries where American companies rely heavily on Chinese supply chains.Stricter regulations and licensing restrictions, making it harder for American firms to operate in China.Export bans on rare earth minerals, potentially crippling U.S. production of smartphones, EVs, and military equipment.
China also filed a lawsuit against Trump’s administration at the World Trade Organization, signaling that it will use every available tool to fight back.
Market Impact: Stock Sell-Off, Crypto Surge
The escalating trade war is fueling economic instability, causing major market reactions.
📌 Key consequences:
The U.S. stock market took a major hit, with the Dow Jones dropping 8% in two days after the tariff hike.China’s Shanghai Composite suffered its worst quarterly drop since 2015, according to CNBC.Traditional markets tumbled, while cryptocurrencies saw a slight surge, likely due to Trump’s announcement of a national crypto reserve.Global trade slowed down, with companies facing higher costs and disrupted supply chains.
JPMorgan economists warned that the trade war could shave 1.5% off global GDP in 2025, meaning the economic impact would be felt worldwide.
What’s Next?
📌 Long-term outlook:
The U.S. and China are searching for a way out, but neither side wants to be seen as backing down.Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized that China will focus on boosting domestic consumption, reducing its reliance on exports.U.S. farmers and manufacturers are struggling, while Chinese factory workers are losing jobs due to canceled U.S. orders.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump doubled down on social media, declaring that the U.S. must reclaim its position as the world’s manufacturing superpower. While Republican lawmakers support his stance, Democrats warn of long-term economic instability.
What’s your take on the trade war? Will it lead to a new global economic order, or will it only cause damage to both sides? 💭

#DonaldTrump , #CryptoNewss , #china , #usa , #tarrifs

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