$BTC

1. Price Action & Wyckoff (Effort vs. Result)
    1.    Effort = Result Principle: Recently, price reached the 106,000–107,000 USDT resistance zone while volume decreased, suggesting waning buying pressure and a potential corrective move.
    2.    According to Binance data (March 2025), after an accumulation phase the market entered a markup phase with a clear Sign of Strength (SOS) and gradually rising volume.

2. ICT and Smart Money Concepts
    1.    Supply and Demand Zones: The 106–107 k zone is confirmed as a strong supply area.
    2.    Market Structure: On the daily timeframe, a Lower High has formed, indicating a likely retracement toward 100–102 k.

3. Fundamental Analysis
    1.    Open Interest & Volume: Open interest is elevated, but 24-hour trading volume has declined, implying that professional traders are awaiting a clearer directional signal.
    2.    Funding Rate: Slightly positive, indicating long bias and the risk of a funding-rate-induced reversal.

4. Volume Profile & Order Flow
    1.    Point of Control (POC): The highest-volume traded area lies between 103–105 k.
    2.    Order Flow: Large sell orders are clustered around 106–107 k, increasing the likelihood of a downturn from that zone.

Trade Recommendations (Swing / Intraday)
Strategy    Entry Zone    Target (TP)    Stop Loss (SL)    R/R Ratio
Conservative    Short at 106,000–106,500    102,500    107,200 (+150 pts)    ~1:2
Aggressive    Long at 103,000–103,500    107,000–107,500    102,000 (below VAL)    ~1:3

▶️ Most Probable Path Next Few Days
    1.    Correction from the supply zone (106–107 k) down to 102–103 k.
    2.    Rebound from 102–103 k to retest the supply zone.

Suggested Sequence:
    1.    Enter a short position at 106–107 k, targeting 102.5 k with SL above 107.2 k.
    2.    If price falls to 103–102 k, open a long reversal trade targeting 107 k, with SL below 102 k.

Key Concepts Defined
    •    Wyckoff Phases: After markup, a markdown phase often follows.
    •    SOS (Sign of Strength): A Wyckoff concept indicating strong buying interest.
    •    Lower High: In ICT/SMC, a swing high lower than the previous high signals bearish structure.
    •    POC (Point of Control): Volume Profile level with the most traded volume.
    •    VAL (Value Area Low): Lower boundary of the 70 % volume range.

Execution Notes
    •    Use precise stop-loss placement.
    •    Manage margin if volatility spikes.
    •    Consider a trailing stop to lock in profits.

Recommended Tools
    •    Order Flow & Volume Clusters: Bookmap or Cignals for detailed flow visualization.
Conclusion
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)

A conservative short at 106–107 k offers a favorable risk/reward targeting 102.5 k. Subsequently, a long reversal at 103–102 k toward 107 k also presents a high-probability setup. This combined Wyckoff, ICT, and Volume Profile strategy maximizes success likelihood.