XRP has surged over 600% since November, reaching a market capitalization of around $190 billion. This rally has caught a lot of attention as the market closely watches the Ripple lawsuit resolution, U.S. regulatory clarity, and growing ETF momentum.
But the big question is: Does XRPās price still align with its fundamentals? Letās take a deep dive.
---
š XRP Valuation vs TVL: Extreme Ratios
XRPās parent chain, the XRP Ledger (XRPL), currently has a Total Value Locked (TVL) of just $87.74 million (DefiLlama).
24-hour trading volume on XRPL DEX: $49,621
24-hour application fees: $1,467
This means XRPās market capitalization is over 2,200 times its TVL and about 363,000 times its annual fee revenue. š³
Investors justify this high valuation based on expected future growth:
XRPL payment volume expansion
Stablecoin adoption
Company fund allocation
ETF capital inflows
If these dynamics materialize, XRPās current price could be sustainable, even though on-chain usage remains modest for now.
---
š Real-World Asset (RWA) Growth
XRPL has recently recorded $175.9 million in tokenized assets, a 52.25% increase in one month, including:
U.S. Treasury bonds: $120.6 million
Public equities: $55.4 million
Real estate: $4.3 million
Stablecoins: $67.3 million
This is one of the fastest growth rates in RWA crypto, indicating that XRPLās scalability and future demand could drive XRP adoption.
---
š XRP vs Ethereum
Ethereum remains the leading layer-1 blockchain:
Market cap: $516 billion
TVL: $92.06 billion
Daily application fees: $10.48 million
RWA managed projects: $7 billion
Ethereumās market cap/TVL ratio = 5.6
XRPās ratio = 2,200
XRP currently trades at around 40% of Ethereumās market cap, leading some analysts to flag it as overvalued.
---
š Technical Analysis: Bearish Divergence
XRPās recent price surge is showing signs of slowing momentum:
Bearish divergence between price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Buying pressure weakening while price rises
Potential pullback:
XRPās 20-2W EMA (purple wave): $2.32
Possible drop: 25%+ from current price
Historically, similar bearish divergence signals in 2017ā2018 triggered major corrections.
The $2.32 level is important as it represents the average price XRP holders paid over the past six months, potentially acting as a magnet and shakeout point before a recovery.
---
ā” Future Outlook
Despite bearish signals:
Some analysts believe XRP could reach $10 in the coming months.
ETF momentum, regulatory clarity, and XRPLās RWA adoption could drive long-term growth.
This sets up a high-risk, high-reward environment, making careful positioning essential for traders.
---
š Key Takeaways
XRP surged 600% since November, market cap ~$190B
TVL = $87.74M, market cap 2,200x TVL
XRPL RWA assets grew 52.25% in 1 month
XRP vs Ethereum: potential overvaluation
Technicals indicate bearish divergence ā possible 25% correction
Long-term potential: $10 if catalysts continue
šš„ XRP is at a critical juncture ā bulls are hopeful, bears are cautious. Trade wisely and watch the market closely! š°
#XRPUpdate #CryptoAnalysis #AltcoinWatch #RippleRally #cryptotrading