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Bitcoin's 'ultimate' bear market bottom is around $55,000

Bitcoin has not reached full capitulation yet, as key onchain indicators remain in a Bear Phase rather than the Extreme Bear Phase seen at past bottoms.

The firm said bitcoin’s realized price support — or “ultimate” bear market bottom — is around $55,000, a level that has not yet been tested and typically takes time to form.

Bitcoin's "ultimate" bear market bottom is currently around $55,000, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which said bear market bottoms typically take months to form rather than occur in a single capitulation event.

The firm said bitcoin’s realized price, which historically has been a major price support area in previous bear markets, represents the likely ultimate bear market bottom. Bitcoin is still trading over 25% above that level. In previous bear markets, prices fell 24% below the realized price after the FTX collapse and 30% below it during the 2018 cycle, Firm said. After reaching those levels, bitcoin typically spent four to six months forming a base, it added.

Another factor that shows that bitcoin hasn’t yet reached a structural bottom is the large daily realized losses, Firm said. Bitcoin holders recently realized $5.4 billion in daily losses on Feb. 5 when the price fell 14% to $62,000 — the largest daily realized losses since March 2023, when they amounted to $5.8 billion, and larger than the $4.3 billion losses recorded a few days after the FTX collapse of November 2022, the firm noted. Despite the scale of the realized losses, Firm said a price bottom is not near yet.

"Monthly cumulative realized losses in bitcoin terms are still much lower than the levels associated with bear market bottoms, 0.3 million BTC today, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market," it said.

Several key valuation indicators also remain above historical capitulation zones. $BTC $ETH $BNB #MarketRebound #USNFPBlowout