🔎 Current Market Context (4H)

Price: 609.22

24H High / Low: 626.57 / 601.30

📉 Trend Structure

Price is trading below MA(7), MA(25), and MA(99).

MA(99) ≈ 643.69 → Strong macro resistance.

MA(25) ≈ 617.32 → Immediate dynamic resistance.

Overall 4H structure: Short-term downtrend / bearish consolidation.

📊 Momentum

RSI(6): 42.43

Below 50 → Bearish bias

Not oversold → Room for further downside

📩 Key Levels

Resistance: 617–620 (MA25 zone)

Major resistance: 642–645

Support: 601

Next support: 592–590

🎯 Intraday Trading Plan (4H-Based Execution)

Since trend is bearish, short setups have higher probability unless structure breaks.

đŸ”» Primary Setup: SHORT (Trend Continuation)

📍 Entry Zone:

615 – 620 (rejection near MA25 resistance)

OR

Breakdown entry below 600

🛑 Stop-Loss:

Conservative: 628

Aggressive: 622 (tight risk)

🎯 Take-Profit Targets:

TP1: 601

TP2: 592

TP3 (extended): 580–585

📊 Risk/Reward (from 618 entry example)

SL: 628 (10 pts risk)

TP1: 601 (17 pts)

TP2: 592 (26 pts)

R:R ≈ 1:2 to 1:3

đŸ”Œ Alternative Setup: LONG (Only If Confirmed Break)

⚠ Only valid if 4H candle closes above 622–625 with strong volume.

📍 Entry:

625–628 breakout retest

🛑 Stop-Loss:

612

🎯 Targets:

TP1: 642

TP2: 655

Bias for this setup is lower unless structure shifts.

📌 Summary Bias

Current structure favors:

✅ Sell the bounce

❌ Avoid aggressive longs in resistance

⚠ Intraday Execution Tips

Wait for rejection candle (long upper wick / bearish engulfing) at resistance.

Watch volume spikes for confirmation.

Reduce position size if volatility increases.

If price holds above 620 for 2–3 candles → reassess bearish bias.

If you'd like, I can also:

Map a scalping setup (15m execution)

Calculate exact position size based on your account balance

Provide a futures leverage-adjusted plan

Let me know your preferred risk % per trade.

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