🚀🔥 #BTC & #MSTR؛ Under the Microscope – Can Saylor Survive $8K? 🔥🚀
• 🟠 $BTC
• Price: ~$68,000
• 24H Trend: Stable / Mild Volatility
• Bear Case: Drop toward $10K–$8K (extreme scenario)
• Why It Matters: Strategy holds 717,131 BTC – massive leverage to price.
• 🏢 $MSTR
• Stock: Below $130
• Key Level: $183.19 (2028 convert strike)
• Risk Date: Sept 15, 2027 (cash put option ~$1B)
• Issue: If stock stays below $183 → bondholders likely demand CASH, not shares.
---
⚠️ The Real Risk Isn’t $8K – It’s Dilution
Saylor says Strategy can survive BTC at $8,000.
✔️ No forced BTC selling (in theory).
✔️ $2.3B cash reserve built.
But…
❗ Equity dilution is the pressure valve.
333M+ basic shares (growing fast).
Billions raised via ATM stock sales.
Lower stock price = more shares issued = weaker BTC-per-share growth.
This becomes a slow bleed for shareholders, even if BTC survives.
---
📊 What To Watch
🔑 $183.19 stock level (conversion incentive zone).
📅 Sept 15, 2027 (cash put trigger).
📉 Premium vs BTC NAV (ETF competition reducing it).
🧾 ATM issuance pace.
---
🎯 Investor Takeaway
• If BTC enters a new bull cycle → dilution becomes less painful.
• If BTC stagnates or drops → dilution accelerates.
• Extreme crash to $8K? Company may survive. Shareholders feel the pain.
💡 Strategy isn’t a pure BTC proxy anymore — it’s a leveraged capital structure trade.
➡️ Are you buying directly or riding leverage? Choose your risk wisely. 💰📈