đš TRADERS PRICE 93% CHANCE THE FED WONâT CUT RATES IN MARCH
đ Market data from rate futures and the CME FedWatch tool shows traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the March FOMC meeting.
â ïž Current probabilities imply roughly a 90â94% chance of no rate cut in March, meaning only a small minority of the market is betting on immediate easing.
đŠ This shift comes after stronger labor data and persistent inflation concerns, which give the Federal Reserve less urgency to begin cutting rates right away.
đ Futures markets are instead pricing the first realistic rate cuts later in 2026, with June emerging as a more likely starting point for easing.
đ§ For risk assets like crypto, delayed rate cuts usually mean tighter liquidity conditions in the short term, which can suppress upside momentum.
đ The key takeaway is that macro expectations are turning more hawkish near-term, even if the broader cycle still anticipates eventual rate cuts later in the year.
đš If the Fed indeed holds in March, markets may remain volatility-driven until clearer signals on inflation and liquidity emerge.