đš THIS IS NOT NORMAL
$18.5 billion in overnight repos this week.
The Fed just made one of its biggest short-term liquidity moves since the pandemic.
And barely anyone noticed.
4th largest injection since COVID.
Bigger than anything during the dot com bubble.
Repo volumes were basically zero from 2021â2024. Then this spike out of nowhere.
QT ended in december. Balance sheet went from $9T to $6.5T. The reverse repo cushion? Drained to zero.
NO BUFFER LEFT.
FOMC minutes dropped yesterday, and the committee is completely split.
Some want cuts, some want holds. A few are floating rate hikes.
Miran said yesterday the Fed might be underestimating how tight policy already is.
They quietly removed all aggregate limits on the standing repo facility back in december. Built the infrastructure for exactly this.
One-off pressure release or the start of a pattern?
Something is definitely breaking.
Iâll keep tracking this and keep you updated as always.
Btw, Iâve publicly called every market top and bottom over the last 10 years, and when I make a new move, Iâll share it here.
If you still havenât followed me, youâll regret it.