Exchange balances on Binance keep falling, which usually looks bullish. Less supply should mean less selling pressure. But price isn’t responding. Momentum is weak, rallies fade quickly, and structure still prints lower highs.
This tells us the issue isn’t supply — it’s participation.
Coins leaving exchanges can mean staking, wallet reshuffling, or OTC activity. It doesn’t guarantee fresh spot buying. And without new inflows, reduced supply alone can’t push price higher.
Derivatives flows are still steering short-term direction, liquidity remains thin, and buyers are reactive rather than aggressive.
Sequence matters:
Trend shift → Demand returns → Supply contraction amplifies upside
Right now, step one hasn’t happened.
Until $ETH reclaims key levels and momentum flips, the market remains in wait-and-see mode.
Low supply isn’t bullish by itself.
Without conviction, it’s just a quieter market.