2017 → $21K
2021 → $69K
2025 → $124K
Next cycle → ?
Zoom out.
Every major cycle has followed a similar emotional script.
• A powerful expansion
• A euphoric top
• A brutal shakeout of late buyers
• A long rebuild phase
• A new structural high
The numbers change.
The psychology doesn’t.
Right now, sentiment feels fragile. Fear is elevated. Positioning is cautious. Many participants are waiting for “one more flush” before committing capital.
Historically, that exact mindset has formed near inflection zones — not because bottoms are obvious, but because conviction becomes scarce.
Markets don’t turn when everyone feels confident.
They turn when uncertainty peaks.
Liquidity Is Rotating
Gold has already pushed higher.
Silver is showing relative strength.
Macro liquidity appears to be shifting across asset classes.
Bitcoin rarely stays dormant when cross-market rotation begins. It doesn’t always move first — but when momentum expands, it tends to expand aggressively.
And expansion phases in $BTC are rarely linear.
If upside momentum builds:
• Short positioning can unwind rapidly
• Spot demand can reappear quickly
• Volatility can expand in compressed bursts
• Altcoins can accelerate even faster
Compression often precedes release.
Six Months Changes Everything
Cycle transitions don’t announce themselves clearly. They feel uncertain while they’re forming.
But step back six months later, and the structure can look completely different:
Higher price.
Improved sentiment.
Rebuilt trend structure.
Renewed participation.
That’s how previous cycles unfolded.
Not smoothly.
Not predictably.
But structurally.
Patterns don’t guarantee outcomes.
They frame probabilities.
Stay strategic.
Manage exposure.
Avoid emotional extremes.
Position with intention — not reaction.
Because $BTC rarely stays quiet for long.
