Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has taken a $148,000 position on Polymarket, betting that the United States will not officially confirm the existence of aliens before 2027.
The position is placed on “NO” and would generate around $16,000 in profit if no disclosure happens within the specified timeframe.
The move comes shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was directing federal agencies to begin releasing classified files related to unidentified aerial phenomena and extraterrestrial life.
Trump Orders UFO File Release
In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that, “based on the tremendous interest shown,” he would instruct Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other relevant officials to begin the process of identifying and releasing government files related to:
– alien and extraterrestrial life
– unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP)
– unidentified flying objects (UFOs)
– and related materials
Following the announcement, Polymarket odds on official alien confirmation surged from 12% to 28%, according to traders tracking the market.
For prediction market participants, the political headline translated directly into volatility.
Buterin’s Polymarket Strategy
Buterin is known to actively trade on Polymarket, often focusing on political and geopolitical events tied to the U.S., Donald Trump, and the Russia–Ukraine war.
In an interview with Foresight News on Jan. 28, the Ethereum founder explained his approach to prediction markets. His strategy reportedly generated over $75,000 in profit last year on a $440,000 deposit.
“I look for markets that have entered ‘frenzy mode’ and bet that the crazy thing won’t happen.”
His current alien-related position appears to align with that thesis: when public attention spikes and odds move sharply, he positions against the hype.
Track Record on Similar Trades
According to traders analyzing his past activity:
– 2024: Bet $52,000, profit $1,500
– 2025: Bet $25,000, profit $2,700
Now, he has scaled the strategy with a $148,000 exposure targeting a $16,000 payout.
Some market participants speculate whether he could increase the position if odds continue to rise following additional government statements.
Aliens as Tradable Assets
While niche, alien disclosure markets have maintained a steady following on prediction platforms. Political catalysts often trigger sudden liquidity inflows.
The whole prediction market sector has seen rapid expansion in early 2026. Daily trading volumes recently reached between $700 million and $800 million. In 2025, annual volumes approached $28 billion, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi leading activity.
For traders betting on alien disclosure, Trump’s directive may signal opportunity. For Buterin, it appears to be another calculated bet against public euphoria.