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GoranCh
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₿ Will one hour decide everything — and what comes next
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BTC just bounced +3.4% from the lows — exactly what extreme exhaustion data predicted. But the real moment hasn't happened yet. Two of the most important macro releases of the year drop today — US Q4 GDP and PCE inflation. Both at the same time. And price is sitting just $67 below a major resistance cluster with 0% conviction and a DOJI candle. The bounce looks weak.
What's happening in the background:
FOMC minutes this Wednesday revealed Fed officials openly discussed raising rates if inflation stays elevated. That was not the scenario markets expected. The Dollar Index is reacting — climbing toward 98.00, its fifth consecutive green day. When the dollar strengthens, crypto falls.
Bitcoin ETFs have shed over $8.5 billion in outflows since October 2025. BlackRock's IBIT alone saw $102 million leave in a single day. Fear & Greed Index sits at 11 — "Extreme Fear."
What drops today:
US Q4 GDP — consensus 2.8%–3.0%. Below 2.3% = rate cut signal, positive for crypto. Above 3.5% = "higher for longer," dollar strengthens, BTC lower.
PCE Inflation — the Fed's preferred gauge. JPMorgan and BofA forecast core PCE at 2.9%–3.0% annually. If confirmed, June rate cut becomes uncertain.
Two scenarios:
Soft data → BTC pushes through resistance toward $68,787 → bearish trend resumes from higher
Hot data → BTC rejected here at $67,893 → directly toward $65,800–$66,100
Our analysis: Structure remains bearish regardless. All 9 timeframes aligned down. Three Black Crows confirmed on the Monthly. This bounce has zero conviction behind it. Any move higher is a better short entry, not a reversal.
Watch when the numbers hit.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #Fed #GDP #PCE #CryptoTrading #Brainer
Powered by Brainer ⚡
BTC just bounced +3.4% from the lows — exactly what extreme exhaustion data predicted. But the real moment hasn't happened yet. Two of the most important macro releases of the year drop today — US Q4 GDP and PCE inflation. Both at the same time. And price is sitting just $67 below a major resistance cluster with 0% conviction and a DOJI candle. The bounce looks weak.
What's happening in the background:
FOMC minutes this Wednesday revealed Fed officials openly discussed raising rates if inflation stays elevated. That was not the scenario markets expected. The Dollar Index is reacting — climbing toward 98.00, its fifth consecutive green day. When the dollar strengthens, crypto falls.
Bitcoin ETFs have shed over $8.5 billion in outflows since October 2025. BlackRock's IBIT alone saw $102 million leave in a single day. Fear & Greed Index sits at 11 — "Extreme Fear."
What drops today:
US Q4 GDP — consensus 2.8%–3.0%. Below 2.3% = rate cut signal, positive for crypto. Above 3.5% = "higher for longer," dollar strengthens, BTC lower.
PCE Inflation — the Fed's preferred gauge. JPMorgan and BofA forecast core PCE at 2.9%–3.0% annually. If confirmed, June rate cut becomes uncertain.
Two scenarios:
Soft data → BTC pushes through resistance toward $68,787 → bearish trend resumes from higher
Hot data → BTC rejected here at $67,893 → directly toward $65,800–$66,100
Our analysis: Structure remains bearish regardless. All 9 timeframes aligned down. Three Black Crows confirmed on the Monthly. This bounce has zero conviction behind it. Any move higher is a better short entry, not a reversal.
Watch when the numbers hit.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #Fed #GDP #PCE #CryptoTrading #Brainer
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