🚨 BREAKING: U.S. Manufacturing Still Expanding — But Momentum Is Slowing

The latest S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, missing expectations of 52.4.

Yes — it’s still above 50. Yes — that means expansion. But here’s what the market actually cares about 👇

📉 Expansion… With a Warning Sign

PMI above 50 = growth.

PMI below expectations = cooling momentum.

This is not contraction.

This is deceleration inside expansion.

That’s a very different macro signal.

🧠 What This Means for Markets

1️⃣ Growth is positive but not accelerating

Manufacturing isn’t rolling over, but it’s not gaining steam either.

2️⃣ Fed pressure slightly eases

A softer-than-expected print reduces overheating concerns. Translation: fewer surprises from tightening rhetoric.

3️⃣ Dollar reaction depends on yield response

If Treasury yields fall → risk assets breathe. If yields stay firm → equities consolidate.

💰 Risk Assets Playbook

• Slower momentum but still expanding = Goldilocks-lite scenario

• Equities: Neutral to mildly bullish

• Crypto: Benefits if liquidity expectations improve

• Bonds: Slightly supportive

Markets don’t move on absolute numbers. They move on rate of change vs expectations.

And today?

The rate of change just cooled.

🎯 Bigger Picture

We are in a phase where:

Hard landing fears are fading

Re-acceleration hasn’t begun

Liquidity expectations drive price action

That’s why this print matters.

Not because it’s 51.2.

But because it’s slower than the market priced in.

Watch yields. Watch DXY.

That’s where the real signal is.

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