With Supreme Court rulings striking down Trump's tariffs, the U.S. government could face $130–175+ billion in potential refunds.

What that means:

-Inflation pressure eases

-Consumers regain some purchasing power

-Importers get major cash back → stronger margins

-GDP outlook could improve

-Stocks tend to rally

-Trade flows normalize

Downside:

-Government loses $130–175B+ in revenue

-Refunds mostly go to companies, not guaranteed lower shelf prices

In short:

Tariff refunds = short-term bullish for markets.

It’s essentially a large-scale tax cut for importers.