Current $ENSO
Status: La Niña Advisory
While a "La Niña Advisory" remains in effect from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the tropical Pacific is shifting toward a Neutral state.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): The NINO3.4 index (a key metric for ENSO) was recorded at -0.2°C for the week ending February 11, 2026. This is well above the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C, signaling a return to near-average temperatures.
Atmospheric Patterns: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains slightly positive (+9.9 in January), showing that the atmosphere is lagging behind the ocean's warming, still reflecting some "echoes" of La Niña.
Key Insights & Long-Range Outlook
The Great Transition: We are entering a dominant Neutral phase for the spring (March–May). This "in-between" state typically makes seasonal weather patterns (like rainfall and storm tracks) harder to predict because the strong steering effects of El Niño or La Niña are absent.
Potential El Niño Return: Many dynamical models, including the ECMWF and NMME, are already pointing toward a rapid warming of the central Pacific by late spring. There is currently a 56-60% chance that El Niño conditions will develop by the Northern Hemisphere summer (June–August 2026).
"Super El Niño" Rumors: Some early indicators (subsurface heat building in the western Pacific) have led to speculation about a strong El Niño event late in the year, though forecasters warn that "Spring Predictability Barrier" makes high-confidence long-term intensity forecasts difficult at this time.
