đ TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR & GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT â UPDATE 2026-02-21
The statistical data shows that the correlation coefficient between FGI and Win Rate remains low (r ~ -0.21). This result continues to confirm that FGI is not a tool for predicting price direction or entry points, but it plays an important role in position risk calibration. Specifically, trading performance tends to decline clearly when market sentiment reaches extreme euphoria, making it an early risk warning signal rather than an opportunity to expand profit targets.
Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), minimum break-even R:R, and number of observed days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
đ€ Extreme Greed (â„80): WR 40.5% âą R:R=1:1.47 âą n=25
đ€€ Greed (60â80): WR 45.1% âą R:R=1:1.22 âą n=215
đ Neutral (40â60): WR 45.6% âą R:R=1:1.19 âą n=138
đš Fear (20â40): WR 46.8% âą R:R=1:1.14 âą n=175
đ± Extreme Fear (<20): WR 49.1% âą R:R=1:1.04 âą n=46
The percentage of days with performance above the overall average (45.74%) by sentiment zone:
đ€ Extreme Greed: 12.0%
đ€€ Greed: 40.0%
đ Neutral: 45.7%
đš Fear: 56.6%
đ± Extreme Fear: 65.2%
†Scalping traders can use FGI as a guide to adjust expected profit targets when participating in trades:
đ When FGI is high, profit expectations should be increased to ensure the R:R remains large enough to compensate for the risk of a lower win rate.
đ When FGI is low, profit expectations can be reduced to improve capital turnover speed and realize profits more easily.