Echoes of Post Luna May 2022
$BTC ’s latest structure is starting to echo the post Luna May 2022 sequence. Back then, we saw violent capitulation, deeply oversold momentum, a sharp relief rally into imbalance, followed by continuation lower. Right now, the market is printing a very similar rhythm.
Current Market Setup
The recent sell off has pushed momentum indicators into oversold territory again, and structurally, the price looks stretched though not necessarily finished. If this fractal continues to rhyme, a 15–30 day rebound toward the 71K–75K zone becomes plausible. That region matters because a clear unfilled Fair Value Gap sits there, a price inefficiency created during the breakdown. Markets often revisit these imbalance pockets before deciding the next macro direction, cleaning liquidity and repairing inefficiencies before structure resolves.
The Risk Beneath the Relief Rally
However, a relief rally does not automatically signal a reversal. If price taps 75K and momentum stalls while liquidity gets absorbed, the path toward the ~56K zone opens structurally. This area aligns with prior demand, deeper cycle retracement levels, and broader macro reset zones in other words, rally first, reset later.
Why This Rally Can Be Dangerous
Relief rallies can be powerful, squeezing late shorts, restoring temporary optimism, improving sentiment, and pulling sidelined capital back in. But if macro liquidity and structural demand do not improve, they often become redistribution phases. The 75K region could turn into an opportunity if reclaimed and held, or a trap if tapped and rejected.
Key Variable: Reaction at Resistance
Right now, the key variable is not just the bounce, but the reaction at resistance. Strong absorption with sustained volume could repair structure, while weak follow-through may lead to renewed selling and continuation risk.
Eyes on 75K
Fractals do not predict, they frame probability, and at the moment, the probability favors a short term rally attempt before the market decides whether it is preparing for expansion or one more purge. Eyes remain on 75K.
