The market feels quiet. Too quiet.
Funding has reset. Leverage is washed out. Weak hands already sold the range breakdown. What’s left is spot accumulation and a derivatives market leaning the wrong way.
Here’s the likely setup:
Bitcoin compresses just below resistance. Volatility bleeds. Bears grow confident. Open interest builds. Then a sudden expansion — not gradual, not polite — a vertical reclaim that forces shorts to unwind into thin liquidity.
The first breakout won’t look convincing. It never does. It will look like another failed rally… until it isn’t.
If momentum sticks above the prior supply zone, sidelined capital rushes back in. ETF flows accelerate. Perps flip positive. Social sentiment shifts from boredom to disbelief in a matter of hours.
From there, the move feeds itself.
Not euphoria yet. Just repricing.
And once Bitcoin starts repricing, it doesn’t ask for permission.
