Recent reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicate a significant shift in the positions of non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). According to PANews, the net short positions have decreased from approximately +1000 contracts last month to around -1600 contracts, suggesting that hedge funds and similar financial entities are increasingly optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects. This shift mirrors market conditions preceding Bitcoin price increases of 190% in 2023 and 70% in 2025.
Currently, Bitcoin is maintaining its position above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), approximately $68,350, which has historically served as a crucial support level during most bear markets over the past decade. Analysts predict that if Bitcoin successfully rebounds, it could reach the 100-week EMA, around $85,000, by April.
However, analyst Tom McClellan cautions that the shift in 'smart money' sentiment reflects market conditions rather than a definitive signal, and Bitcoin prices could still potentially decline further to the $40,000 to $50,000 range.