As of February 24, 2026, I believe Pi Coin (PI) is sitting at a critical crossroads. On one hand, the fundamentals of the Pi Network are improving in a way that’s hard to ignore. On the other, the technical structure is flashing serious warning signs. The big question for me is simple: will the 16.2 million mainnet migrations finally support the price — or are we heading toward $0.108?

Fundamental Growth: 16.2 Million Migrations & Accumulation Signals

From a fundamental perspective, the growth of Pi Network has been impressive. Mainnet migrations have surged by 60% compared to 2025 levels, pushing total migrations past 16.2 million users. That’s not a small number — it represents millions of people completing KYC and moving their mined PI into the live ecosystem.

For me, this matters because migration isn’t just a statistic. It reflects real participation. It means users are taking the project seriously enough to go through verification and engage with the actual mainnet. Long term, that kind of adoption is what gives a network life.

Another major signal is the sudden shift in exchange netflows. Over 305,547 PI left centralized exchanges in just 24 hours. When coins move off exchanges into private wallets, it typically suggests accumulation rather than immediate selling pressure. This could indicate that “smart money” is quietly positioning for the long term.

Fundamentally, these are bullish signs. But the chart is telling a different story.

Technical Warning Signs: Bearish Structure Still in Play

Despite the improving network data, PI’s price action remains fragile. The chart appears to be forming an inverted cup-and-handle pattern — a structure that often precedes further downside.

The recent 7% bounce looks more like a temporary “handle” rather than the beginning of a sustainable recovery. If this pattern plays out fully, it could trigger a breakdown toward the $0.108 level — roughly a 32% drop from current prices.

Even more concerning is the hidden bearish divergence on the RSI. While the RSI has been making higher highs, the price has formed a lower high. That mismatch suggests weakening momentum. In other words, the recent bounce may not have strong conviction behind it.

For me, the $0.154 level is critical. A daily close below that support could confirm the bearish structure and open the door to new lows.

The Smart Money Factor: Key Levels to Watch

What could invalidate this bearish outlook?

The Smart Money Index previously fueled a 54% rally on February 13, showing that strong buying pressure can shift sentiment quickly. If dip buyers continue accumulating and PI reclaims $0.187, that would be the first sign of strength. A confirmed break above $0.207 would significantly weaken the bearish scenario.

But until those levels are reclaimed, the downside risk remains real.

My Perspective

Personally, I don’t think the 16 million migrations automatically “save” the price — at least not immediately. Fundamentals often take time to reflect in price action. Markets can stay irrational longer than expected, especially in highly speculative assets.

That said, I also don’t believe the $0.108 bottom is inevitable.

Right now, PI is caught between improving long-term utility and short-term technical weakness. If accumulation continues and key resistance levels are broken, sentiment could flip quickly. But if $0.154 fails, the chart structure suggests that a deeper correction is very possible.

Final Thoughts (Financial Disclaimer)

This is just my personal analysis and opinion. It’s for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. Technical patterns like RSI divergence and inverted cup-and-handle formations are probabilistic — not guarantees.

Pi Coin remains a highly speculative and volatile asset. Anyone considering investing should always do their own research (DYOR) and consult a licensed financial professional before making significant financial decisions.

For now, all eyes are on $0.154 support and $0.187 resistance. The next move from here could define Pi Coin’s direction for weeks to come.$NVDAon $AMZNon $AMZNon