Coinbase stands to be one of the biggest corporate winners from the U.S.’s new federal stablecoin framework, the GENIUS Act, analysts say — and the numbers help explain why. Quick snapshot - GENIUS Act: Signed into law July 2025, establishes the first national regulatory regime for stablecoin issuance and oversight. - Coinbase stablecoin revenue (2025): Estimated $1.35 billion, up 48% from $911 million in 2024. - Share of total revenue: Stablecoin-related income accounted for roughly 19% of Coinbase’s 2025 revenue. - Stock reaction: COIN jumped toward $185 in Wednesday trading, a roughly 22% gain in 24 hours. Why stablecoins matter to Coinbase Bloomberg analysts Paul Gulberg and Samuel Radowitz note the GENIUS Act could materially strengthen Coinbase’s fast-growing stablecoin business — especially if dollar-backed tokens like USDC gain wider traction in everyday payments and cross-border commerce. Unlike spot trading fees, which swing with crypto market volatility, stablecoin income at Coinbase is largely driven by interest on the reserves that back USDC. Those reserves are parked in U.S. Treasuries and other low-risk instruments, generating yield. Because Coinbase earns a significant slice of that interest, the revenue stream is steadier and generally higher-margin than transaction fees. That stability showed up in late 2025: while Bitcoin and broader crypto markets slumped and Coinbase’s Q4 revenue fell about 20%, income tied to stablecoins held up comparatively well. How the GENIUS Act could amplify growth The GENIUS Act’s national rules aim to remove many of the legal and operational frictions that have limited stablecoin use in things like merchant settlements and cross-border payments. If businesses and financial institutions start using USDC more for real-world transactions, the total supply of USDC would likely expand — and so would the Treasury-backed reserves required to support it. More reserves mean more interest income, and because Coinbase shares in that yield, higher adoption could translate directly into bigger revenue. Bloomberg’s estimate: under favorable conditions, Coinbase’s USDC-related revenue could expand roughly two- to seven-fold from current levels. Caveats and near-term constraints A key factor in how fast USDC adoption grows is whether Coinbase and its partners continue offering rewards to customers who hold USDC — incentives that have helped drive uptake. Those reward programs are currently a subject of negotiation in the broader CLARITY Act discussions; if they’re limited or scaled back, adoption may slow. Still, analysts say the clarity brought by the GENIUS Act should support meaningful growth even without the most aggressive reward structures. Bottom line The GENIUS Act codifies the regulatory status of stablecoins in the U.S., and for exchanges like Coinbase that already participate in the USDC ecosystem, that clarity could unlock a predictable, high-margin revenue stream that cushions the firm against trading volatility. How big that opportunity becomes will hinge on adoption by businesses and whether incentives to hold USDC remain in place. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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