In this post, let’s break down how rate cuts and other big macro events price in before they happen — and how you can position smartly to stay ahead of the move. 👇
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🔹 Why Price Dips After “Good News”?
If we all expect a rate cut and it actually happens… why does the market still dump?
Example — September 17th, 25bps cut. Everyone was hyped, yet price fell.
👉 Reason: It was already priced in.
Markets usually pump 1–2 weeks before the expected event — then sell off once it’s confirmed.
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🔹 Market Reaction Scenarios
Event Reaction Reason
No Change 🔴 Hard Dump Expectations missed
25bps Cut 🔴 Dump Already priced in
50bps Cut 🟢 Pump Unexpected surprise
When a bullish event is expected, it’s often already in the charts before the announcement.
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🔹 Expected vs Unexpected
Expected Events (Rate cuts, CPI, halving): price in before the event.
Unexpected Events (War, hacks, policy shifts): market reacts instantly.
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🔹 How to Position 💼
1️⃣ Start preparing 1–2 weeks early.
2️⃣ Check forecasts & Polymarket odds (majority bet = most likely).
3️⃣ If it plays out as expected → close position.
4️⃣ If something unexpected happens → hold/add.
5️⃣ If “no change” when a cut was expected → flip short.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research.
💭 What’s your take? How do you position before FOMC events? Drop your thoughts below 👇