đ¨ Tonight Could Decide the Next Big Crypto Moveă
If you felt the market trembling last night⌠that wasnât imagination. The newly released Fed minutes show something we rarely see, complete division, no clear plan, no clear direction, high tension and when TradFi loses clarity â crypto always reacts first.
đĽ 1. The October meeting minutes revealed a full internal split
⢠âCut Ratesâ faction: several officials want a 25bp cut in December if data matches expectations
⢠âWait-and-Seeâ faction: many officials want to hold steady (and yesââmanyâ > âseveralâ in Fed language)
⢠âRadicalâ faction: one group pushed for a big 50bp cut, while another said âno cuts at allâ
This is the most divided the Fed has been all year.
â ď¸ 2. A 44-day data blackout = Because of the long government shutdown, key data vanished
⢠No October employment data
⢠September jobs report delayed 1.5 months
⢠No official GDP data update
⢠No full inflation dataset
The Fed is making decisions in a fog and markets hate uncertainty.
đ 3. Rate-cut expectations collapsed instantly
After the minutes dropped
⢠December rate-cut probability fell from 50% â below 30%
⢠âHold steadyâ expectations surged to nearly 70%
⢠Swap market pricing shrank from 11bps â 6bps
This is why markets reacted with hesitation â and crypto followed.
⥠4. Labour market flashing warnings
⢠Only 17,000 new jobs in September (vs. 50,000 expected)
⢠Continuing unemployment claims surged by 40,000
⢠Corporate layoff announcements rising rapidly
Weak labour â weak growth â higher volatility.
đŻ 5. Tonightâs data release = potential market breaker
The delayed September non-farm payrolls finally drop tonight:
⢠Expected new jobs: 50,000
⢠Unemployment: 4.3% expected
This is the only fresh data the market has before the next Fed meeting.
If it misses expectations â shock.
If it beats â relief rally.
Either way â crypto will move faster than stocks.
#USStocksForecast2026 #MarketPullback #CPIWat $BTC
