Bitcoin’s Cycle Test: Target, Timing & What the Structure Is Really Saying
Everyone talks about where $BTC is going. Fewer talk about when.
Cycles answer the second question — and timing is where most traders lose patience.
If Bitcoin continues to respect its historical cycle structure, current data points to a potential macro bottom near $29,000 around October 2026. This isn’t a short-term call or a fear-driven take. It’s a probability model built from behavior Bitcoin has repeated for nearly a decade.
The cycle framework (quick recap)
Bitcoin has printed three major cycle peaks so far:
2017
2021
2025
Each top arrived roughly four years apart, followed by a long corrective phase. Different narratives, same rhythm.
What history shows after a peak
Corrections typically last ~12 months
Average drawdown: 75–80% from the cycle high
Final bottoms tend to form late in the correction year, not early
If the most recent cycle top formed around October 2025, that places the statistically relevant bottom window around October 2026.
Price logic, not guesswork
Applying a 75–80% retracement to the recent peak brings price into the $28K–$32K zone, with ~$29K standing out. That level isn’t random:
It overlaps with prior high-volume consolidation
It aligns with long-term structural support from previous cycles
It sits where long-term buyers historically step back in
This is not a statement of certainty. It’s a cycle-based probability, assuming no extreme external shock or structural regime change.
The real takeaway
Markets don’t repeat perfectly — but they rhyme often enough to matter.
Timing matters more than conviction
Structure matters more than headlines
Cycles matter more than narratives
If the cycle holds, patience — not prediction — will be rewarded.
Curious to hear your view:
Do you think the 4-year Bitcoin cycle still applies in an ETF era… or are we finally in a new regime?
