Timeframe: 1W (SOLUSDT.P)
Macro context:
SOL has been trading inside a well-defined range (market in balance), with price repeatedly rotating between a lower demand zone (range low) and an upper supply zone (range high). Multiple reactions on both sides reinforce the idea that this is an accumulation/distribution-type structure rather than a clean trend.
Range thesis (accumulation behavior):
As long as price remains inside the box, the highest-probability behavior is rotation:
• Buyers defend the lower boundary (bounces / absorption)
• Sellers defend the upper boundary (rejections / supply)
Pattern inside the range: Falling wedge (compression):
On the right side, price is compressing into a falling wedge (lower highs, tightening structure). Often this can be an exhaustion pattern that breaks upward, but it can also fail if the breakout lacks acceptance—leading to a deeper correction toward the lower range support.
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Key scenarios
Scenario A — Rotation to the range high (bullish if acceptance shows)
If the range low continues to hold and SOL starts reclaiming structure, a rotation toward the upper range supply becomes the natural path.
What I want to see (confirmations):
• Stronger weekly closes off the lower range area
• Reclaim + hold of reclaimed levels as support (successful retest)
• Break and acceptance above the wedge’s upper trendline
Scenario B — Deeper correction (if the wedge rejects / reclaim fails)
If price rejects at the wedge’s upper trendline or fails to regain structure, probability increases for:
• A move back toward the lower range demand (and possibly a deeper sweep before a real bounce)
Invalidation (for the bullish rotation idea):
• A clean weekly breakdown below the lower range demand zone (acceptance below the range)
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Note: This is a macro roadmap, not a market order. I’m watching for weekly confirmation (acceptance vs. rejection) to decide whether this becomes a range-high rotation or a deeper correction setup.
